{"id":10044,"date":"2017-09-22T00:49:52","date_gmt":"2017-09-22T00:49:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/?p=10044"},"modified":"2017-09-23T00:53:46","modified_gmt":"2017-09-23T00:53:46","slug":"chinas-leverage-over-rocket-man-is-key-to-avoiding-nuclear-war-in-east-asia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/chinas-leverage-over-rocket-man-is-key-to-avoiding-nuclear-war-in-east-asia\/","title":{"rendered":"China&#8217;s leverage over &#8216;Rocket Man&#8217; is key to avoiding nuclear war in East Asia"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/greg-wright-241472\">Greg Wright<\/a>, <em><a href=\"http:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/university-of-california-merced-2056\">University of California, Merced<\/a><\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<p>U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un are playing a dangerous game of brinkmanship while also trading personal insults.<\/p>\n<p>Most recently, Trump <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2017\/09\/19\/world\/trump-un-north-korea-iran.html?_r=0\">blasted the \u201cRocket Man\u201d<\/a> in his inaugural speech to the United Nations, promising to \u201ctotally destroy\u201d North Korea if it threatens the U.S. or its allies. The Trump Administration also <a href=\"http:\/\/www.independent.co.uk\/news\/world\/americas\/us-politics\/north-korea-sanctions-trump-china-banks-announcement-latest-a7960106.html\">added new sanctions<\/a> aimed at strangling its ability to work with banks. <\/p>\n<p>Kim, for his part, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2017\/09\/22\/asia\/north-korea-dotard\/index.html\">resorted to calling<\/a> Trump \u201cmentally deranged\u201d and a \u201cdotard,\u201d while his foreign minister <a href=\"http:\/\/www.npr.org\/sections\/thetwo-way\/2017\/09\/22\/552861261\/north-korea-says-pacific-test-of-nuclear-warhead-is-possible\">threatened to test<\/a> a hydrogen bomb in the Pacific. <\/p>\n<p>With <a href=\"http:\/\/www.foxnews.com\/world\/2017\/08\/08\/north-korea-trump-ratchet-up-tension-with-threats-fire-hours-apart.html\">tensions escalating<\/a>, it is important to be realistic about how we can get out of this mess. <\/p>\n<p>In short, any nonmilitary solution will rely on China choosing to apply its massive economic leverage over the North Korean regime. In a positive sign, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.npr.org\/2017\/09\/21\/552708231\/china-cuts-off-bank-business-with-north-korea-as-trump-announces-new-sanctions\">China\u2019s central bank recently told Chinese financial companies<\/a> to stop doing business with North Korea.<\/p>\n<p>Overall, however, it appears that China has increased its trade with North Korea in recent years while doing fairly little to forestall North Korea\u2019s nuclear ambitions. China\u2019s foremost objective seems to be promoting greater stability from its volatile neighbor, in part because it fears being faced with a massive humanitarian crisis should the regime collapse.<\/p>\n<p>But while the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/news\/worldviews\/wp\/2017\/07\/05\/the-messy-data-behind-chinas-growing-trade-with-north-korea\/?utm_term=.41435ab3f758\">poor quality of the data<\/a> hinders a detailed analysis, a quick look shows just how much leverage China has, if it wishes to use it. <\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" lang=\"en\"><p>\n            <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/realDonaldTrump\/status\/882560030884716544\"><\/a>\n           <\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>          <script async src=\"\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2>North Korea\u2019s primary patron<\/h2>\n<p>In general, exports from one country to another <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cepii.fr\/pdf_pub\/wp\/2013\/wp2013-27.pdf\">can be mostly explained<\/a> by the distance between them and the sizes of their markets, a pattern that holds for China and North Korea.<\/p>\n<p>Geographically, they share a long border, which makes China a natural, though not inevitable, partner for trade. As a case in point, North Korea also shares a long border with South Korea, but these countries have almost no trade between them. In addition, North Korea shares a small border with Russia, with whom it has little, though ever-increasing, trade. <\/p>\n<p>China\u2019s large market, proximity and \u2013 most importantly \u2013 willingness to trade with North Korea has led to a situation in which North Korea has become highly dependent on trade with what has become its primary patron. <a href=\"http:\/\/atlas.media.mit.edu\/en\/profile\/country\/prk\/\">About half<\/a> of North Korean exports and imports go directly to and from China and most of the rest of its trade is handled indirectly by Chinese middlemen. <\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" id=\"NLI0n\" class=\"tc-infographic-datawrapper\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/NLI0n\/1\/\" height=\"400px\" width=\"100%\" style=\"border: none\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>North Korea\u2019s dependence on its neighbor has grown alongside China\u2019s increasing economic dominance of East Asia, which gained momentum 15 years ago when China <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wto.org\/english\/thewto_e\/countries_e\/china_e.htm\">joined the World Trade Organization<\/a>. Since then, both Chinese gross domestic product as well as its annual trade with North Korea have increased nearly tenfold, to around <a href=\"http:\/\/data.worldbank.org\/country\/china\">US$11 trillion<\/a> and <a href=\"http:\/\/atlas.media.mit.edu\/en\/profile\/country\/prk\/\">$6 billion<\/a>, respectively. <\/p>\n<p>North Korea <a href=\"http:\/\/atlas.media.mit.edu\/en\/visualize\/tree_map\/hs92\/export\/chn\/prk\/show\/2015\/\">imports nearly everything<\/a> from China, from rubber tires to refined petroleum to pears, with no single category dominating. Meanwhile, <a href=\"http:\/\/atlas.media.mit.edu\/en\/visualize\/tree_map\/hs92\/import\/chn\/prk\/show\/2015\/\">coal constitutes about 40 percent<\/a> of North Korean exports to China.  <\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" id=\"hI27G\" class=\"tc-infographic-datawrapper\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/hI27G\/2\/\" height=\"400px\" width=\"100%\" style=\"border: none\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<h2>Time to use that leverage?<\/h2>\n<p>However, recent events \u2013 such as the use of front companies by Chinese firms to <a href=\"http:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-northkorea-nuclear-usa-idUSKCN11W1SL\">evade sanctions<\/a> imposed on North Korea and China\u2019s <a href=\"http:\/\/english.chosun.com\/site\/data\/html_dir\/2017\/01\/05\/2017010501412.html\">reluctance to cut off<\/a> energy supplies to the country \u2013 have led to some uncertainty about the extent to which China is willing to use this economic leverage to rein in North Korea\u2019s military ambitions. <\/p>\n<p>On one hand, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2017\/02\/18\/world\/asia\/north-korea-china-coal-imports-suspended.html\">China previously claimed<\/a> to have stopped coal imports from North Korea as part of recent efforts to punish the regime for missile tests and the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2017\/02\/20\/asia\/kim-jong-nam-death-timeline\/index.html\">suspected assassination of Kim Jong-nam<\/a>, the estranged half-brother of North Korean leader <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/what-makes-kim-jong-un-tick-77143\">Kim Jong Un<\/a>. This was an important signal of China\u2019s willingness to support U.S. concerns about the missile program since oil represents <a href=\"http:\/\/atlas.media.mit.edu\/en\/profile\/country\/prk\/\">about a third<\/a> ($930 million) of North Korea\u2019s import revenue. <\/p>\n<p>On the other hand, there is evidence that coal shipments in fact <a href=\"http:\/\/www.slate.com\/blogs\/the_slatest\/2017\/07\/05\/trump_tried_to_make_china_to_do_his_bidding_against_north_korea_and_is_shocked.html\">never ceased<\/a>. And, in any case, China <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/news\/worldviews\/wp\/2017\/07\/05\/the-messy-data-behind-chinas-growing-trade-with-north-korea\/?utm_term=.41435ab3f758\">may have increased<\/a> its imports of iron ore from North Korea to offset the lost coal revenues. <\/p>\n<p>This is consistent with the idea that China carefully considers the resources and revenue that are available to the North Korean regime at any moment, and uses trade as a lever to control them. In this way, China walks a fine line between providing too many resources, and thus allowing the regime to prosper, and not enough resources, such that North Korea is in danger of collapsing. Ultimately, trade may be used as a lever to do some light scolding, but China\u2019s overwhelming concern is preventing North Korea\u2019s collapse.<\/p>\n<p>Further evidence that China has tight control over the North Korean economy comes from <a href=\"https:\/\/c4ads.org\/reports\/\">a recent report<\/a> from <a href=\"https:\/\/c4ads.org\">C4ADS<\/a>. The research group found close, and often common, ownership ties between most of the major Chinese companies who do business with North Korea. This suggests that trade with North Korea is highly centralized and thus easily controlled.<\/p>\n<h2>Russia: North Korea\u2019s other \u2018friend\u2019<\/h2>\n<p>China is not the only country that North Korea trades with, though the others currently pale in comparison. Other top export destinations include India ($97.8 million), Pakistan ($43.1 million) and Burkina Faso ($32.8 million). In terms of imports, India ($108 million), Russia ($78.3 million) and Thailand ($73.8 million) currently sell the most to North Korea. <\/p>\n<p>Russia in particular may soon complicate <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/videos\/nikki-haley-says-u-s-will-propose-tougher-sanctions-against-north-korea\/\">U.S. efforts to isolate the regime<\/a>. While still small, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.usatoday.com\/story\/news\/world\/2017\/06\/05\/russia-boosts-trade-north-korea-china-cuts\/102389824\/\">Russian trade with North Korea increased<\/a> 73 percent over the first two months of 2017 compared with the same period of the previous year. <\/p>\n<p>But whereas China is legitimately worried that an economic crisis in North Korea could lead to a flood of refugees or all-out war, Russia likely sees engagement with North Korea in much simpler terms, namely as an additional way to gain geopolitical advantage relative to the U.S.<\/p>\n<h2>A way out?<\/h2>\n<p>Nearly all experts agree that there is no easy way to \u201csolve\u201d the North Korea problem. However, one plausible approach is to encourage South Korea and Japan to begin to develop nuclear weapons programs of their own, and to only discontinue these programs if China takes meaningful steps to use its trade with North Korea to reign in the regime. <\/p>\n<p>Threatening to introduce new nuclear powers to the world is clearly risky, however stable and peaceful South Korea and Japan currently are. But China is highly averse to having these economic and political rivals acquire nuclear capabilities, as it would threaten China\u2019s ongoing pursuit of regional control. In short, this is a sensitive pressure point that could be used to sway the Chinese leadership.<\/p>\n<p>One way or another, China must become convinced that the costs of propping up the North Korean regime through trade are higher than the costs of an increased probability that the regime will collapse.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/counter.theconversation.com\/content\/84556\/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic\" alt=\"The Conversation\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\" \/><em>This is an updated version of <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/how-china-could-use-trade-to-force-north-korea-to-play-nice-with-the-west-80609\">an article<\/a> originally published on July 6, 2017.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><span><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/greg-wright-241472\">Greg Wright<\/a>, Assistant Professor of Economics, <em><a href=\"http:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/university-of-california-merced-2056\">University of California, Merced<\/a><\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<p>This article was originally published on <a href=\"http:\/\/theconversation.com\">The Conversation<\/a>. Read the <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/chinas-leverage-over-rocket-man-is-key-to-avoiding-nuclear-war-in-east-asia-84556\">original article<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Greg Wright, University of California, Merced U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un are playing a dangerous game of brinkmanship while also trading personal insults. Most recently, Trump blasted the \u201cRocket Man\u201d in his inaugural speech to the United Nations, promising to \u201ctotally destroy\u201d North Korea if it threatens the U.S. or [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":44,"featured_media":10045,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[5,277],"tags":[3191,145,3072,3192,479,176,2306,2298,2693,2304,1658,234,3190,1893,1602,3186,2946],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10044"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/44"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10044"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10044\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10046,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10044\/revisions\/10046"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/10045"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10044"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10044"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10044"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}