{"id":10355,"date":"2017-11-02T03:28:42","date_gmt":"2017-11-02T03:28:42","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/?p=10355"},"modified":"2017-11-02T03:28:42","modified_gmt":"2017-11-02T03:28:42","slug":"us-shouldnt-give-up-benefits-of-green-card-lottery-over-low-risk-of-terrorism","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/us-shouldnt-give-up-benefits-of-green-card-lottery-over-low-risk-of-terrorism\/","title":{"rendered":"US shouldn&#8217;t give up benefits of &#8216;green card lottery&#8217; over low risk of terrorism"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/ethan-lewis-400488\">Ethan Lewis<\/a>, <em><a href=\"http:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/dartmouth-college-1720\">Dartmouth College<\/a><\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<p>After a man barreled down a New York City bike path on Oct. 31, killing eight, President Donald Trump reacted by <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2017\/11\/01\/politics\/donald-trump-chuck-schumer-nyc-attack\/index.html\">calling for an end<\/a> to the \u201cgreen card lottery\u201d program that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2017-11-01\/trump-says-new-york-suspect-s-visa-was-a-chuck-schumer-beauty\">allowed the attacker<\/a> to enter the country. <\/p>\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/travel.state.gov\/content\/visas\/en\/immigrate\/diversity-visa\/entry.html\">Diversity Immigrant Visa Program<\/a>, as it is officially known, has been in the sights of the president for a while. In August, Trump <a href=\"http:\/\/time.com\/4885453\/donald-trump-legal-immigration-bill\/\">publicly backed<\/a> a GOP bill that would end the program and replace it with a merit-based system. <\/p>\n<p>Trump and his fellow Republicans have long decried illegal immigration, but they have <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cato.org\/publications\/commentary\/still-proimmigration-party\">traditionally favored<\/a> the legal kind, partly because their <a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtontimes.com\/news\/2015\/feb\/23\/gop-must-embrace-pro-immigration-policy-big-donors\/\">business donors demand it<\/a>. <\/p>\n<p>As someone who researches the impact of immigration on workers, I believe their plans to change who can enter the country legally is a big mistake. We would be giving up a program that benefits American workers with very little chance of a gain in safety.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"align-center \">\n            <img alt=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/192903\/original\/file-20171101-19900-nv6pl1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip\"><figcaption>\n              <span class=\"caption\">While the driver reportedly entered the country through a green card, very few Americans have been killed by recipients of such visas.<\/span><br \/>\n              <span class=\"attribution\"><span class=\"source\">AP Photo\/Bebeto Matthews<\/span><\/span><br \/>\n            <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2>Curbing immigration<\/h2>\n<p>While <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nbcnews.com\/politics\/donald-trump\/trump-suspect-entered-u-s-diversity-visa-lottery-blames-schumer-n816346\">Trump\u2019s tweets<\/a> about the lottery program are based on security concerns, the usual argument supporting curbs on immigration is that new arrivals hurt native-born American workers and the economy at large. <\/p>\n<p>I\u2019ll leave analyzing the security concerns to other experts; suffice it to say that <a href=\"https:\/\/fas.org\/sgp\/crs\/misc\/R41747.pdf\">the risk, according to experts, is very small<\/a>. Green card holders <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cato.org\/blog\/halloween-terror-attack-new-york-threat-foreign-born-terrorists\">have killed just 16 people<\/a> \u2013 including yesterday \u2013 in terror attacks on U.S. soil since 1975.<\/p>\n<p>As for the economic impact on U.S.-born workers, the key thing to bear in mind is that the more homogeneous and similar immigrants are to natives, the greater the odds they\u2019ll in fact have a negative effect.<\/p>\n<p>In contrast, immigrants who come from diverse backgrounds with a range of skills \u2013 such as the lottery winners and the so-called \u201cDreamers\u201d \u2013 tend to produce greater economic benefits. That may be one reason <a href=\"http:\/\/www.salon.com\/2017\/09\/05\/daca-has-made-sense-to-me-republican-lawmakers-pledge-to-support-daca-over-trump\/\">at least some Republicans<\/a> and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.politico.com\/story\/2017\/09\/05\/poll-trump-deporting-daca-dreamers-242343\">most Americans<\/a> are in favor of keeping the Deferred Action for Child Arrivals program that protects the Dreamers from deportation, which <a href=\"http:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-usa-immigration\/trump-ends-dreamer-immigration-program-places-onus-on-congress-idUSKCN1BG0H2\">Trump recently ended<\/a>.   <\/p>\n<h2>A new approach<\/h2>\n<p>Currently, the U.S. receives a lot of immigrants without a college degree or with imperfect English. About half of immigrants fit either description.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<hr>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" id=\"y6110\" class=\"tc-infographic-datawrapper\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/y6110\/3\/\" height=\"400px\" width=\"100%\" style=\"border: none\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<hr>\n<p>Legislation proposed earlier this summer \u2013 the <a href=\"http:\/\/static.politico.com\/fd\/af\/3eebc635479892982f81bdfe3fa2\/raise-act.pdf\">Reforming American Immigration for Strong Employment (RAISE) Act<\/a> \u2013 would exclude most such workers and reduce the total number of green cards awarding permanent legal U.S. residence to just over 500,000 from more than one million today.  <\/p>\n<p>It would also end the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.uscis.gov\/greencard\/diversity-visa\">green card lottery<\/a>, which awards <a href=\"https:\/\/www.dhs.gov\/sites\/default\/files\/publications\/Lawful_Permanent_Residents_2015.pdf\">50,000<\/a> green cards a year to people from countries with low rates of immigration to the U.S. <\/p>\n<p>Importantly, it would also change who gets a leg up when applying for a green card. Currently, family of U.S. citizens and legal permanent residents, including siblings and adult children, are able to apply. The new system would limit that to minor children and spouses. <\/p>\n<p>Instead, the bill would create a point-based system like those used in countries such as the U.K. and Australia that use factors such as English ability, education and job offers to rank applicants. However, <a href=\"http:\/\/econofact.org\/should-immigrants-be-admitted-to-the-united-states-based-on-merit\">it would be stricter<\/a> than point systems used in those countries, which admit immigrants through other programs as well. <\/p>\n<p>In essence, the plan would make the pool of immigrants more homogeneous and dramatically smaller in number, mirroring the misguided <a href=\"https:\/\/books.google.com\/books?id=H__52jKXgBwC&amp;pg=PP1&amp;dq=Mae+M.+Ngai&amp;ei=7E3ySouONpX0zASruM3bAw#v=onepage&amp;q&amp;f=false\">origin-based restrictions from the 1920s<\/a>.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"align-center \">\n            <img alt=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/186089\/original\/file-20170914-8971-19cpt63.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip\"><figcaption>\n              <span class=\"caption\">The DACA program\u2019s inherent diversity is what makes it a boon for the U.S. economy.<\/span><br \/>\n              <span class=\"attribution\"><span class=\"source\">AP Photo\/Pablo Martinez Monsivais<\/span><\/span><br \/>\n            <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2>What economists say<\/h2>\n<p>Those who wish to restrict immigration <a href=\"http:\/\/www.jacksonsun.com\/story\/opinion\/columnists\/2017\/08\/07\/less-immigration-means-more-american-jobs-higher-wages\/544478001\/\">often cite<\/a> what they na\u00efvely call \u201csupply-and-demand economics\u201d to essentially argue that the economy is a fixed pie that gets divided among a country\u2019s residents. Fewer immigrants means \u201cmore pie\u201d for the U.S.-born, as the story goes. <\/p>\n<p>I am an economist, and this is not what my colleagues and I say. The commonplace argument that more immigrants, by themselves, lower wages and take jobs from Americans \u2013 an argument which Attorney General Jeff Sessions used <a href=\"http:\/\/www.politico.com\/story\/2017\/09\/05\/trump-ending-daca-dreamers-program-sessions-transcript-242326\">to defend ending the \u201cDreamers\u201d program<\/a> \u2013 has neither <a href=\"http:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S1090944317300200\">empirical<\/a> nor <a href=\"https:\/\/object.cato.org\/sites\/cato.org\/files\/serials\/files\/cato-journal\/2017\/9\/cato-journal-v37n3-3.pdf\">theoretical<\/a> support in economics. It is just a myth.<br \/>\nInstead, both theory and empirical research show that immigration, including people with few skills and little English, grows the pie and strengthens the American workforce.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"align-center \">\n            <img alt=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/186090\/original\/file-20170914-8971-yjj0hk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip\"><figcaption>\n              <span class=\"caption\">The main registry building on Ellis Island is shown in this 1905 photo. It was once the nation\u2019s gateway for millions of immigrants.<\/span><br \/>\n              <span class=\"attribution\"><span class=\"source\">AP Photo<\/span><\/span><br \/>\n            <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2>Value in diversity<\/h2>\n<p>While all the recently proposed changes to <a href=\"http:\/\/voxeu.org\/article\/global-view-cross-border-migration\">our immigration system<\/a> will make U.S. workers worse off, the English requirement is likely to be particularly harmful to U.S. workers, especially low-skilled ones.  <\/p>\n<p>Indeed, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.dartmouth.edu\/%7Eethang\/ImmNat.pdf\">I have found<\/a> the relative fluency of U.S.-born workers is what keeps them from being harmed from labor market competition from immigrants. <\/p>\n<p>The reason for this is the following. Essentially, immigrants with imperfect English skills tend to specialize in jobs that are less \u201ccommunication-intensive,\u201d such as manual labor. Americans fluent in the language, on the other hand, tend to take on higher-paying, communication-intensive jobs that are out of reach of those without a strong grasp of English. In other words, these groups aren\u2019t likely to compete for the same jobs, making them more complementary than adversarial.<\/p>\n<p>In contrast, when new immigrants are more fluent in English, something the Trump-backed proposal would encourage, the types of occupations they are qualified for are almost identical to those of American workers. Thus, insisting on strong English skills as a condition of coming to America is likely to increase labor market competition and suppress wages. <\/p>\n<figure class=\"align-center \">\n            <img alt=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/186088\/original\/file-20170914-22524-1dkt8le.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip\"><figcaption>\n              <span class=\"caption\">When Congress in 1964 ended the Bracero program, which allowed large numbers of Mexicans to work on U.S. farms, neither wages nor employment rates of American workers rose.<\/span><br \/>\n              <span class=\"attribution\"><span class=\"source\">AP Photo<\/span><\/span><br \/>\n            <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2>Immigration that helps<\/h2>\n<p>Immigration that emphasizes diversity, rather than merely merit, tends to attract more people who specialize in occupations uncommon among U.S.-born workers. And, in fact, this is the key source of the <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/want-a-stronger-economy-give-immigrants-a-warm-welcome-73264\">well-known economic benefits of immigration<\/a>. <\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/giovanniperi.ucdavis.edu\/uploads\/5\/6\/8\/2\/56826033\/peri_sparber_task_specialization_immigration_2010.pdf\">Studies<\/a> by economists Giovanni Peri and Chad Sparber, for example, show this tendency toward job specialization is a key reason the large volume of low-skill immigration does not drive down incomes of Americans. Other <a href=\"http:\/\/giovanniperi.ucdavis.edu\/uploads\/5\/6\/8\/2\/56826033\/ottaviano_peri_economic_value_of_cultural_diversity_2006.pdf\">research<\/a> by Peri and Gianmarco Ottaviano shows that simply encouraging immigration from diverse origins lifts wages. <\/p>\n<p>Put differently, there is direct evidence that the sort of diversity that the green card lottery encourages makes all Americans better off. It would be a shame to give all of that up because of a tiny risk of terrorism. <\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/counter.theconversation.com\/content\/86745\/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic\" alt=\"The Conversation\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\" \/><em>This is an updated version of an <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/how-dreamers-and-green-card-lottery-winners-strengthen-the-us-economy-82571\">article<\/a> originally published on Sept. 15, 2017.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><span><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/ethan-lewis-400488\">Ethan Lewis<\/a>, Associate Professor of Economics, <em><a href=\"http:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/dartmouth-college-1720\">Dartmouth College<\/a><\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<p>This article was originally published on <a href=\"http:\/\/theconversation.com\">The Conversation<\/a>. Read the <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/us-shouldnt-give-up-benefits-of-green-card-lottery-over-low-risk-of-terrorism-86745\">original article<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ethan Lewis, Dartmouth College After a man barreled down a New York City bike path on Oct. 31, killing eight, President Donald Trump reacted by calling for an end to the \u201cgreen card lottery\u201d program that allowed the attacker to enter the country. The Diversity Immigrant Visa Program, as it is officially known, has been [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":44,"featured_media":10356,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[5,277],"tags":[453,1747,1602,1586,3430],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10355"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/44"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10355"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10355\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10357,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10355\/revisions\/10357"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/10356"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10355"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10355"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10355"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}