{"id":11314,"date":"2018-02-10T04:18:48","date_gmt":"2018-02-10T04:18:48","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/?p=11314"},"modified":"2018-02-11T04:27:13","modified_gmt":"2018-02-11T04:27:13","slug":"why-trumps-infrastructure-ambitions-are-likely-to-stall","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/why-trumps-infrastructure-ambitions-are-likely-to-stall\/","title":{"rendered":"Why Trump&#8217;s infrastructure ambitions are likely to stall"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/caroline-nowacki-380551\">Caroline Nowacki<\/a>, <em><a href=\"http:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/stanford-university-890\">Stanford University<\/a><\/em> and <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/kate-gasparro-387479\">Kate Gasparro<\/a>, <em><a href=\"http:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/stanford-university-890\">Stanford University<\/a><\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<p>President Donald Trump recently raised the ante with his promise to unleash a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2018\/01\/30\/trump-advisor-cohn-president-to-focus-on-1-point-5-trillion-infrastructure-plan-tonight.html\">wave of new infrastructure<\/a> spending. During his first <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=exsOim0Lyl4\">State of Union address<\/a>, he conjured up images of \u201cgleaming new roads, bridges, highways, railways and waterways all across our land\u201d without getting into the details.<\/p>\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2018\/02\/06\/trump-to-unveil-infrastructure-plan-monday--white-house-official.html\">White House will soon unveil<\/a><br \/>\nTrump\u2019s \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/draft-white-house-infrastructure-plan-1516644555-0d43f417-6ccd-43f7-9eae-3ccbe711314d.html\">Infrastructure Incentives Initiative<\/a>,\u201d which Trump now says will usher in at least <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2017-09-27\/trump-reverses-course-on-plan-to-rely-on-private-money-for-roads\">US$1.5 trillion in spending<\/a>. That\u2019s a 50 percent jump from the $1 trillion he had previously pledged and nearly triple the money he talked up on the <a href=\"http:\/\/thehill.com\/policy\/transportation\/371790-lawmakers-left-with-more-questions-than-answers-on-trump-infrastructure\">campaign trail<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>With only <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theatlantic.com\/politics\/archive\/2018\/02\/infrastructure-week-is-always-next-week\/552047\/\">$200 billion in federal funding<\/a> apparently on the table, and <a href=\"http:\/\/thehill.com\/policy\/transportation\/371790-lawmakers-left-with-more-questions-than-answers-on-trump-infrastructure\">ample questions<\/a><br \/>\nfrom the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-usa-trump-infrastructure\/trump-urges-congress-to-help-stimulate-1-5-trillion-in-infrastructure-spending-idUSKBN1FK0C7\">lawmakers who need to approve that money<\/a> about where even that sum will come from, will the plan deliver?<\/p>\n<p>A <a href=\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/draft-white-house-infrastructure-plan-1516644555-0d43f417-6ccd-43f7-9eae-3ccbe711314d.html\">draft of his plan<\/a> indicates it would rely on states, local governments and, most importantly, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.citylab.com\/transportation\/2018\/01\/so-much-for-that-bipartisan-infrastructure-plan\/551849\/\">private investors<\/a> to contribute the rest of the $1.5 trillion pie. As researchers studying ways to boost private infrastructure spending, we believe that it will fall short because it does not address private investors\u2019 key concerns, and it would not work for many kinds of high-priority projects.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" lang=\"en\"><p>\n            <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Jalopnik\/status\/956225056161624070\"><\/a>\n           <\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>          <script async src=\"\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2>Matching and mismatching<\/h2>\n<p>During his address, Trump repeated a message he\u2019s made many times before: that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.usnews.com\/opinion\/economic-intelligence\/articles\/2018-01-31\/trumps-infrastructure-pledge-in-state-of-the-union-raises-many-questions\">private investment<\/a> should help pay the nation\u2019s infrastructure bill. \u201cEvery federal dollar should be leveraged by partnering with state and local governments and, where appropriate, tapping into private-sector investment \u2013 to permanently fix the infrastructure deficit,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p>That makes it sound like he favors \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/heres-how-to-fix-americas-crumbling-bridges-33781\">public-private partnerships<\/a>,\u201d or P3s, the most common way governments attract and <a href=\"https:\/\/iconsofinfrastructure.com\/will-trump-use-p3-help-infrastructure-take-off\/\">leverage private investment<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Here\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookings.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/1208_transportation_istrate_puentes.pdf\">how they work<\/a>. A public sponsor \u2013 either the federal government agency or a state or local government agency \u2013 contracts out part or all of the financing, construction, maintenance and operation of a project to a group of private companies following a competitive bidding process.<\/p>\n<p>The amount of infrastructure money in new U.S. P3s has waned in recent years. It fell to <a href=\"https:\/\/home.kpmg.com\/au\/en\/home\/insights\/2015\/06\/public-private-partnerships-global-trends.html\">$710 million between 2011 and 2014<\/a> from higher levels seen a few years earlier, the most recent period for which data is available. And P3s only facilitated about <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbo.gov\/sites\/default\/files\/113th-congress-2013-2014\/reports\/45157-PublicPrivatePartnerships.pdf\">1.5 percent<\/a> of the $4 trillion all levels of government spent on highways between 1989 and 2013, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.<\/p>\n<p>However, the number of pension funds and other <a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/i\/institutionalinvestor.asp\">institutional investors<\/a> putting money into infrastructure <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-usa-infrastructure-pensions\/public-pension-funds-seek-infrastructure-as-market-heats-up-idUSKCN0YZ22J\">has doubled<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>What\u2019s holding things up?<\/p>\n<p>Investors do not say that a lack of federal subsidies, like the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theatlantic.com\/politics\/archive\/2017\/05\/the-phantom-infrastructure-proposal-in-trumps-budget\/527859\/\">$200 billion<\/a> Trump reportedly seeks, is a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.oecd.org\/daf\/fin\/private-pensions\/Private-financing-and-government-support-to-promote-LTI-in-infrastructure.pdf\">big bottleneck<\/a>. Instead, to draw much more private investment, the U.S. needs <a href=\"https:\/\/www.oecd.org\/daf\/fin\/private-pensions\/Private-financing-and-government-support-to-promote-LTI-in-infrastructure.pdf\">clear, consistent regulations<\/a> that will help make projects more likely to withstand any shifts in political power \u2013 such as when the majority party changes at any level of government.<\/p>\n<p>Establishing a more successful track record for these partnerships, which have <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncppp.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/CRS-Insights-Indiana-Toll-Road-Bankruptcy-Chills-Climate-for-P3s.pdf\">often faltered<\/a>, will also help.<\/p>\n<p>One step the U.S. could take now is to follow the examples set by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vic.gov.au\/publicsectorreform\/people\/office-of-projects-victoria.html\">Australia<\/a> and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.p3canada.ca\/en\/about-p3s\/\">Canada<\/a>, where more infrastructure is being built through these partnerships. Specialized P3 teams in those countries have developed uniform competitive bidding processes, standardized contracts and project pipelines all based on lessons learned from prior partnerships.<\/p>\n<h2>Californian precedents<\/h2>\n<p>The spotty track record for some U.S. efforts to establish P3s underscores the importance of that kind of coordination.<\/p>\n<p>California, for example, sought in 1989 to harness four of these partnerships as \u201c<a href=\"http:\/\/www.dot.ca.gov\/hq\/innovfinance\/public-private-partnerships\/PPP_main.html\">demonstration<\/a>\u201d projects. It <a href=\"http:\/\/whoswholegal.com\/news\/features\/article\/30387\/public-private-partnerships-successes-failures-plans-future\">only completed two<\/a> of those four.<\/p>\n<p>First, California\u2019s transportation department created a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.transportation.gov\/policy-initiatives\/build-america\/sr-91-express-lanes-orange-county-ca\">P3 to build express lanes for its busy SR-91<\/a> highway to ease Orange County congestion near Los Angeles. <\/p>\n<p>Because the department agreed to not build <a href=\"http:\/\/whoswholegal.com\/news\/features\/article\/30387\/public-private-partnerships-successes-failures-plans-future\">free roads running parallel to the tolled ones<\/a>, a public outcry ensued after the 10-mile-long road opened to traffic in 1995.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.transportation.gov\/policy-initiatives\/build-america\/sr-91-express-lanes-orange-county-ca\">Orange County<\/a> then bought out the private-sector partner stake in this project eight years later, cutting its long-term contract short.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.transportation.gov\/policy-initiatives\/build-america\/south-bay-expressway-sr-125-san-diego-ca\">Expanding the South Bay Expressway<\/a>, the other P3 California announced in 1989 that got done, took until 2007 to complete. Three years later, the project\u2019s private partner <a href=\"http:\/\/medcraveonline.com\/MOJCE\/MOJCE-02-00030.php\">declared bankruptcy<\/a>, largely because of years of litigation that delayed the onset of tolls \u2013 which then generated less revenue than expected.<\/p>\n<p>These planning errors, which were due to lack of experience, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.texasturf.org\/2012-06-01-03-09-30\/latest-news\/public-private-partnerships\/1928-taxpayers-get-shafted-in-bankrupt-san-diego-tollway\">undercut confidence<\/a> in the partnership approach for investors and the public alike. <\/p>\n<p>But the Trump plan\u2019s leaked preliminary details, such as an \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/draft-white-house-infrastructure-plan-1516644555-0d43f417-6ccd-43f7-9eae-3ccbe711314d.html\">interagency selection committee<\/a>\u201d administered by the Commerce Department and \u201cfederal technical assistance\u201d with \u201cno funding provided,\u201d sound like they will fall short of what\u2019s required.<\/p>\n<p>We believe that unless the Trump administration \u2013 despite his <a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/magazine\/story\/2017\/01\/how-trump-could-shrink-the-government-while-still-keeping-the-good-stuff-214679\">disdain for bureaucracy<\/a> \u2013 establishes new government offices to oversee federally backed P3s, it is likely to repeat the errors that hampered California\u2019s pioneering projects.<\/p>\n<h2>If they build it<\/h2>\n<p>With infrastructure, investors are looking for <a href=\"http:\/\/edhec.infrastructure.institute\/wp-content\/uploads\/publications\/blanc-brude_2016c.pdf\">relatively stable returns<\/a> and less risk, more akin to bonds than stocks. This makes financing these partnerships attractive for pension funds and other institutional investors.<\/p>\n<p>At the same time, it makes investors more eager to back projects that already exist and are generating revenue through user fees, such as toll roads, airports, ports and some transit projects with nearby land that can be sold or leased. <\/p>\n<p>In the U.S., however, the government mainly needs the private sector\u2019s help meeting other less profitable priorities, such as improving <a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.ei.columbia.edu\/2017\/06\/13\/rural-americas-drinking-water-crisis-no-help-from-trump-budget\/\">water quality<\/a>, expanding <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookings.edu\/blog\/brookings-now\/2015\/06\/03\/the-10-u-s-metro-rail-systems-that-lose-the-most-money-per-passenger\/\">public transit<\/a> and building <a href=\"https:\/\/www.infrastructurereportcard.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/Levees-Final.pdf\">levees<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Although those projects may not be attractive to investors, they can stoke economic growth and productivity while <a href=\"https:\/\/ideas.repec.org\/a\/fip\/fedbne\/y1990isepp11-33.html\">fostering a higher quality of life<\/a>. <\/p>\n<figure class=\"align-center zoomable\">\n            <a href=\"https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/205540\/original\/file-20180208-180836-12p98cz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip\"><img alt=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/205540\/original\/file-20180208-180836-12p98cz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip\"><\/a><figcaption>\n              <span class=\"caption\">Dwayne Boudreaux Jr., owner of a Circle Food Store in New Orleans, shown dumping dirty water that was vacuumed up after a flood. His city needs more than $11 billion to update key parts of its infrastructure but has only about $2 billion in hand.<\/span><br \/>\n              <span class=\"attribution\"><a class=\"source\" href=\"http:\/\/www.apimages.com\/metadata\/Index\/Trump-Infrastructure-New-Orleans\/73f36bf2fcd74e549a0f0bafdbd919b5\/12\/0\">AP Photo\/Gerald Herbert<\/a><\/span><br \/>\n            <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2>India\u2019s mixed results<\/h2>\n<p>Interestingly, Trump\u2019s infrastructure plan may resemble <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pppinindia.gov.in\/schemes-for-financial-support\">India\u2019s approach<\/a>, which has had mixed results since its 2004 inception. There, the national government foots about 20 percent of the bill when it enters into <a href=\"http:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/abs\/10.1177\/0974930613488295\">public-private partnerships<\/a>, just as the White House proposes to do.<\/p>\n<p>The Indian policy was intended for toll roads and airports for which the government fixed the user fees. The subsidy closed the gap between this regulated revenue stream and investors\u2019 expectations. <\/p>\n<p>However, India <a href=\"http:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/abs\/10.1177\/0974930613488295\">has failed to spend most of the money it budgeted<\/a> for this initiative, suggesting that it will take more than subsidies to entice private investment.<\/p>\n<p>Between India\u2019s track record and signals about insufficient federal guidance and support for public-private partnerships, we doubt that Trump\u2019s plan, as drafted, would catalyze the $1.5 trillion in infrastructure spending he envisions.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/counter.theconversation.com\/content\/80350\/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic\" alt=\"The Conversation\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\" \/>What\u2019s more, we\u2019re concerned that Trump\u2019s proposed plan would primarily aid the kinds of projects that already attract private dollars, leaving many big priorities without a federal assist.<\/p>\n<p><span><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/caroline-nowacki-380551\">Caroline Nowacki<\/a>, PhD Candidate, Global Projects Center, <em><a href=\"http:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/stanford-university-890\">Stanford University<\/a><\/em> and <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/kate-gasparro-387479\">Kate Gasparro<\/a>, Graduate Research Fellow of Sustainable Design and Construction, <em><a href=\"http:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/stanford-university-890\">Stanford University<\/a><\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<p>This article was originally published on <a href=\"http:\/\/theconversation.com\">The Conversation<\/a>. Read the <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/why-trumps-infrastructure-ambitions-are-likely-to-stall-80350\">original article<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Caroline Nowacki, Stanford University and Kate Gasparro, Stanford University President Donald Trump recently raised the ante with his promise to unleash a wave of new infrastructure spending. During his first State of Union address, he conjured up images of \u201cgleaming new roads, bridges, highways, railways and waterways all across our land\u201d without getting into the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":44,"featured_media":11315,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[277],"tags":[272,2069,1910,2021,4003,4004,2485,4005,1602],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11314"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/44"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11314"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11314\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11316,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11314\/revisions\/11316"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/11315"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11314"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11314"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11314"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}