{"id":13581,"date":"2018-09-08T00:53:01","date_gmt":"2018-09-08T00:53:01","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/?p=13581"},"modified":"2018-09-09T00:54:45","modified_gmt":"2018-09-09T00:54:45","slug":"key-internet-connections-and-locations-at-risk-from-rising-seas","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/key-internet-connections-and-locations-at-risk-from-rising-seas\/","title":{"rendered":"Key internet connections and locations at risk from rising seas"},"content":{"rendered":"

Carol Barford<\/a>, University of Wisconsin-Madison<\/a><\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

Despite whimsical ads<\/a> about computing \u201cin the cloud,\u201d the internet lives on the ground. Data centers are built on land, and most of the physical elements of the internet \u2013 such as the cables that connect households to internet services and the fiber optic strands carrying data from one city to another \u2013 are buried in plastic conduit under the dirt. That system has worked quite well for many years, but there may be less than a decade to adapt it to the changing global climate.<\/p>\n

Most of the current internet infrastructure in the U.S. was built in the 1990s and 2000s to serve major population centers on the coasts. As new connections were built, companies built them alongside roads and railroads<\/a> \u2013 which often hug coastlines. Recent mapping of the physical internet<\/a> by computer scientists Paul Barford<\/a> and Ram Durairajan<\/a> identified exactly how many key network locations were how close to the shore. Building on that work, I joined them to study the risk to the internet from rising oceans.<\/p>\n

The basic approach was simple: Take the map of internet hardware and line it up with a map of projected sea-level rise<\/a> to see where network infrastructure may be underwater in the coming years. <\/p>\n

\n \"\"<\/a>
\n Large areas around New York City are projected to be under water by 2033.<\/span>
\n Barford et al.<\/a><\/span>
\n <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Understanding the threats<\/h2>\n
\n \"\"<\/a>
\n This photo from 2011 shows a fiber optic cable, suspended by buoys, being laid off the coast of Venezuela.<\/span>
\n AP Photo\/Ariana Cubillos<\/a><\/span>
\n <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Where it\u2019s not underground, much of the internet is actually underwater already: A physical web of undersea cables<\/a> carries massive amounts of data between continents in milliseconds. Those cables are protected with tough steel housings and rubber cladding to protect them from the ocean. They connect to the land network, though, which was not designed with water in mind. If the plastic pipes carrying wires underground were to flood, the water could freeze and thaw, damaging or even breaking wires. It could also corrode electronics and interrupt fiber optic signals. <\/p>\n

To identify what was now dry but will one day likely get wet, we had to sort through a wide range of potential scenarios, mainly varying estimates of how human-generated greenhouse gas emissions will change over time. We settled on the one created by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and recommended for analysis of situations involving expensive long-term investments<\/a>, like for infrastructure projects.<\/p>\n

Based on the assumption that global greenhouse gas emission trends will continue in their current relationship to human population and economic activity, that model expects global average sea levels to rise one foot by 2030, and a further five feet by 2100.<\/p>\n

Although this may sound improbably high, a more recent report by NOAA also includes an even higher \u201cextreme\u201d scenario<\/a>, which takes into account the mounting evidence of more rapid melting in Greenland and Antarctic glaciers<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The effects of rising waters<\/h2>\n

What we found was not particularly surprising, but it was alarming: The internet is very vulnerable to damage from sea-level rise between now and 2030. Thousands of miles of cables now safely on dry land will be underwater. Dozens of ocean-cable landing stations will be too, along with hundreds of data centers and network-interconnection locations called \u201cpoints of presence.\u201d<\/p>\n