{"id":13992,"date":"2018-10-19T01:50:19","date_gmt":"2018-10-19T01:50:19","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/?p=13992"},"modified":"2018-10-20T01:53:10","modified_gmt":"2018-10-20T01:53:10","slug":"arms-sales-to-saudi-arabia-give-trump-all-the-leverage-he-needs-in-khashoggi-affair","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/arms-sales-to-saudi-arabia-give-trump-all-the-leverage-he-needs-in-khashoggi-affair\/","title":{"rendered":"Arms sales to Saudi Arabia give Trump all the leverage he needs in Khashoggi affair"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/terrence-guay-158340\">Terrence Guay<\/a>, <em><a href=\"http:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/pennsylvania-state-university-1258\">Pennsylvania State University<\/a><\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<p>Among Donald Trump\u2019s many unusual characteristics as president is his frankness.  <\/p>\n<p>Last week, after the disappearance and apparent torture and murder of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi, Trump <a href=\"https:\/\/www.usatoday.com\/story\/news\/world\/2018\/10\/13\/jamal-khashoggi-trump-saudi-arms-deal\/1630693002\/\">argued that \u201cwe would be punishing ourselves\u201d<\/a> by canceling arms sales to Saudi Arabia over a human rights concern. Few world leaders, or former U.S. presidents, would have been so bold as to publicly admit that a Saudi journalist\u2019s life is not worth the loss of arms sales.<\/p>\n<p>And it\u2019s true that the armaments relationship between these two countries is long-established and lucrative for U.S. companies, as <a href=\"https:\/\/ssi.armywarcollege.edu\/pubs\/people.cfm?authorID=571\">my own research<\/a> on the global defense industry shows.  <\/p>\n<p>However, the president has it wrong when he argues the U.S. would be \u201cfoolish\u201d to use these sales as leverage with the Saudis, claiming they could just get their tanks and fighter jets from other countries. In fact it\u2019s one of the best bargaining chips he has with the kingdom. <\/p>\n<h2>An arms-buying behemoth<\/h2>\n<p>Saudi Arabia is indeed a major weapons buyer.  <\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sipri.org\/sites\/default\/files\/2018-06\/yb_18_summary_en_0.pdf\">Saudi Arabia spent<\/a> US$69.4 billion on military expenditures in 2017, according to the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sipri.org\">Stockholm International Peace Research Institute<\/a>, the world\u2019s leading research organization on conflict, armaments, arms control and disarmament. Only the U.S. and China spent more.  <\/p>\n<p>But since it doesn\u2019t have an arms industry \u2013 like the U.S. and China \u2013 Saudi Arabia must import most of that from other countries. That\u2019s why, over the past decade, Saudi Arabia <a href=\"http:\/\/armstrade.sipri.org\/armstrade\/page\/toplist.php\">has imported<\/a> more armaments than every country but India. <\/p>\n<p>And U.S. companies such as Boeing, Lockheed Martin and Raytheon have benefited most from all that spending, making up the <a href=\"http:\/\/armstrade.sipri.org\/armstrade\/page\/values.php\">55 percent<\/a> of its weapons imports from 2008 to 2017. <\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" id=\"4zlVK\" class=\"tc-infographic-datawrapper\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/4zlVK\/1\/\" height=\"400px\" width=\"100%\" style=\"border: none\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>That has made Saudi Arabia the top buyer of American arms, with 11.8 percent of all sales over that period. In fact, U.S. defense contractors have made almost $90 billion <a href=\"https:\/\/www.stripes.com\/news\/us\/top-defense-contractors-keeping-quiet-amid-saudi-arabia-uproar-1.552011\">selling<\/a> arms to Saudi Arabia since 1950. <\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" id=\"O2y5E\" class=\"tc-infographic-datawrapper\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/O2y5E\/1\/\" height=\"400px\" width=\"100%\" style=\"border: none\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>In recent years, fighter planes like the F-15 and their spare parts have become particularly <a href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2018\/10\/15\/657588534\/fact-check-how-much-does-saudi-arabia-spend-on-arms-deals-with-the-u-s\">important<\/a> to the weapons trade with Saudi Arabia because it needs them to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theatlantic.com\/international\/archive\/2018\/09\/iran-yemen-saudi-arabia\/571465\/\">conduct<\/a> its bombing campaigns in Yemen.<\/p>\n<p>For example, a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/blogs\/checkpoint-washington\/post\/us-saudi-arabia-strike-30-billion-arms-deal\/2011\/12\/29\/gIQAjZmhOP_blog.html?utm_term=.b2ce778d0994\">2011 contract<\/a> awarded $30 billion to U.S. defense contractors to produce 84 F-15 jets and other weaponry for the Saudi military. Boeing stands to earn $24 billion of this total, which the company <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2011\/12\/29\/world\/meast\/u-s--saudi-fighter-sale\/index.html\">claimed<\/a> will support over 50,000 U.S. jobs.<\/p>\n<h2>A bargain over human rights<\/h2>\n<p>As president, Trump clearly hopes that the money continues to pour in and helps him with his \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/av\/world-us-canada-38698654\/donald-trump-america-first-america-first\">America First<\/a>\u201d campaign, intended to create jobs for Americans.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s no surprise, then, that he made <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2017\/05\/trump-arrives-saudi-arabia-foreign-trip-170520063253596.html\">his first foreign trip<\/a> as president to Saudi Arabia in May 2017. During the trip, he reportedly <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2018\/10\/14\/us\/politics\/trump-saudi-arabia-arms-deal.html\">struck a bargain<\/a> with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman: Trump wouldn\u2019t lecture his kingdom on human rights, and Saudi Arabia would buy more American weapons. <\/p>\n<p>Unfortunately, Trump\u2019s claim to have secured $110 billion in arms sales has not materialized. Although the Saudis signed numerous letters of intent and interest, some of which had been <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookings.edu\/blog\/markaz\/2017\/06\/05\/the-110-billion-arms-deal-to-saudi-arabia-is-fake-news\/\">approved<\/a> by the Obama administration, no new <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookings.edu\/blog\/order-from-chaos\/2018\/10\/10\/after-khashoggi-us-arms-sales-to-the-saudis-are-essential-leverage\/\">contracts<\/a> have resulted, due mainly to lower oil prices and the Saudis\u2019 costly war in Yemen.<\/p>\n<p>So in the Khashoggi affair, it appears that Trump is eager to keep to his end of the bargain. He has avoided criticizing the Saudi government over its alleged role in Khashoggi\u2019s disappearance to curry favor with the monarchy over arms sales. Even in the face of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2018\/10\/17\/world\/europe\/turkey-saudi-khashoggi-dismember.html\">Turkish reports<\/a> that Saudi agents tortured Khashoggi and dismembered his body and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2018\/10\/17\/world\/middleeast\/pompeo-khashoggi-murder.html\">U.S. intelligence supporting<\/a> those allegations, Trump has preferred to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2018\/10\/15\/657522089\/rogue-killers-may-have-murdered-saudi-journalist-trump-suggests\">blame \u201crogue killers\u201d<\/a> for any crime.<\/p>\n<p>In defending this course of action, Trump <a href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/homenews\/administration\/411271-trump-defends-110-billion-us-arms-sale-to-saudi-arabia\">claimed<\/a> that \u201cif they don\u2019t buy [weapons] from us, they\u2019re going to buy it from Russia or they\u2019re going to buy it from China or they\u2019re going to buy it from other countries.\u201d  <\/p>\n<figure class=\"align-center \">\n            <img alt=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/241339\/original\/file-20181018-67185-15tbj5f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip\"><figcaption>\n              <span class=\"caption\">Smoke billows from a 2015 Saudi-led airstrike in Sanaa, Yemen.<\/span><br \/>\n              <span class=\"attribution\"><a class=\"source\" href=\"http:\/\/www.apimages.com\/metadata\/Index\/Mideast-Saudi-Nation-at-War\/502c555d233e4a73a1cbf2b38eab7ffa\/58\/0\">AP Photo\/Hani Mohammed<\/a><\/span><br \/>\n            <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2>US leverage<\/h2>\n<p>While it\u2019s true that Russia and China are <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sipri.org\/sites\/default\/files\/2018-06\/yb_18_summary_en_0.pdf\">indeed major exporters<\/a> of armaments, the claim that U.S. weapons can easily be replaced by other suppliers is not \u2013 at least not in the short term. <\/p>\n<p>First, once a country is \u201clocked in\u201d to a specific kind of weapons system, such as planes, tanks or naval vessels, the cost to <a href=\"http:\/\/doi.org\/10.1257\/jep.8.4.65\">switch<\/a> to a different supplier can be huge. Military personnel must be retrained on new equipment, spare parts need to be replaced, and operational changes may be necessary.  <\/p>\n<p>After being so reliant on U.S. weapons systems for decades, the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.dtic.mil\/dtic\/tr\/fulltext\/u2\/a498941.pdf\">transition costs<\/a> to buy from another country could be prohibitive even for oil-rich Saudi Arabia.<\/p>\n<p>The second problem with Trump\u2019s argument is that armaments from Russia, China or elsewhere are simply <a href=\"https:\/\/ssi.armywarcollege.edu\/pubs\/display.cfm?pubID=1344\">not as sophisticated as<\/a> U.S. weapons, which is why they are usually cheaper \u2013 though the quality gap is quickly decreasing. To maintain its military superiority in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia has opted to purchase virtually all of its weapons from American and European companies. <\/p>\n<p>That is why the U.S. has significant leverage in this aspect of the relationship. Any <a href=\"http:\/\/fortune.com\/2018\/10\/14\/saudis-threaten-retaliation-jamal-khashoggi\/\">Saudi threat<\/a> to retaliate against a ban on U.S. arms sales by buying weapons from countries that have not raised concerns about the Khashoggi disappearance would not be credible. And is probably why, despite worries in the White House, such a threat has not yet been made.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"align-center \">\n            <img alt=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/241340\/original\/file-20181018-67179-3z8696.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip\"><figcaption>\n              <span class=\"caption\">In many ways, Saudi Arabia is locked in to buying U.S. weapons such as missiles for F-15 fighters.<\/span><br \/>\n              <span class=\"attribution\"><a class=\"source\" href=\"http:\/\/www.apimages.com\/metadata\/Index\/Watchf-Associated-Press-International-News-Saud-\/04d1b04997dd4cbd98aee655486b42fc\/20\/0\">AP Photo\/Scott Applewhite<\/a><\/span><br \/>\n            <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2>Selling ideals for short-term gains<\/h2>\n<p>Since the end of World War II, the U.S. has developed a global reputation as a <a href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/homenews\/administration\/365846-susan-rice-giving-up-uss-moral-authority-makes-a-mockery-of-america\">moral authority<\/a> championing human rights. <\/p>\n<p>Yes, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2017\/05\/19\/opinions\/trump-trip-abroad-human-rights-tasini-opinion\/index.html\">there have been many times when realpolitik<\/a> took priority.<\/p>\n<p>But despite these moments, the U.S. managed also to maintain its authority by advocating respect for human rights as a global norm during the Cold War, and within many repressive regimes ever since.<\/p>\n<p>With Khashoggi, Trump is choosing to give up that mantle completely by showing his priority is purely economic, regardless of the impact on the United States\u2019 global <a href=\"http:\/\/www.pewglobal.org\/2018\/10\/01\/trumps-international-ratings-remain-low-especially-among-key-allies\/\">reputation<\/a>. Such a bald-faced strategy, in my view, sells American values short and weakens U.S. global credibility.<!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/counter.theconversation.com\/content\/104998\/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic\" alt=\"The Conversation\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\" style=\"border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important\" \/><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: http:\/\/theconversation.com\/republishing-guidelines --><\/p>\n<p><span><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/terrence-guay-158340\">Terrence Guay<\/a>, Clinical Professor of International Business, <em><a href=\"http:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/pennsylvania-state-university-1258\">Pennsylvania State University<\/a><\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<p>This article is republished from <a href=\"http:\/\/theconversation.com\">The Conversation<\/a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/arms-sales-to-saudi-arabia-give-trump-all-the-leverage-he-needs-in-khashoggi-affair-104998\">original article<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Terrence Guay, Pennsylvania State University Among Donald Trump\u2019s many unusual characteristics as president is his frankness. Last week, after the disappearance and apparent torture and murder of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi, Trump argued that \u201cwe would be punishing ourselves\u201d by canceling arms sales to Saudi Arabia over a human rights concern. Few world leaders, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":44,"featured_media":13990,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[5],"tags":[5264,5263,3930,3934,5249,1553,2570,13,2415,1558,973,104,2011],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13992"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/44"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13992"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13992\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13993,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13992\/revisions\/13993"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/13990"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13992"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13992"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13992"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}