{"id":15482,"date":"2019-02-23T08:15:40","date_gmt":"2019-02-23T08:15:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/?p=15482"},"modified":"2019-02-25T11:02:01","modified_gmt":"2019-02-25T11:02:01","slug":"airlines-are-going-bust-in-droves-so-why-do-so-many-people-try-to-launch-them","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/airlines-are-going-bust-in-droves-so-why-do-so-many-people-try-to-launch-them\/","title":{"rendered":"Airlines are going bust in droves, so why do so many people try to launch them?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/loizos-heracleous-209138\">Loizos Heracleous<\/a>, <em><a href=\"http:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/warwick-business-school-university-of-warwick-2650\">Warwick Business School, University of Warwick<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<p>Yet another airline has collapsed \u2013 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/business\/2019\/feb\/18\/flybmi-appoints-bdo-as-administrators-after-ceasing-operations\">this time<\/a> British operation Flybmi, costing almost 400 jobs as hundreds of flights were cancelled at short notice. It is the latest in a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aerotime.aero\/gediminas.ziemelis\/21832-at-least-5-medium-size-eu-airlines-to-go-bankrupt-in-2018-2019\">string of<\/a> recent European airline failures, including <a href=\"https:\/\/skift.com\/2017\/08\/16\/air-berlins-slow-collapse-into-bankruptcy-explained\/\">Air Berlin<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/business\/2017\/may\/02\/italy-alitalia-administration-airline-flights\">Alitalia<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/topics\/c8z26xm204yt\/monarch-airlines-collapse\">Monarch<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/business-45712063\">Primera<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fvw.de\/international\/travel-news\/leisure-airlines-azur-air-ends-flights-as-tour-operators-support-insolvent-small-planet-airlines-192325\">Azur<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.independent.co.uk\/travel\/news-and-advice\/cobalt-air-collapse-cyprus-budget-airline-failure-holidays-latest-london-gatwick-heathrow-manchester-a8589381.html\">Cobalt<\/a>. This is despite years of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.statista.com\/statistics\/193533\/growth-of-global-air-traffic-passenger-demand\/\">good growth<\/a> in worldwide air passenger demand, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.iata.org\/publications\/economics\/Reports\/pax-monthly-analysis\/passenger-analysis-may-2018.pdf\">including<\/a> in Europe. So why are so many airlines going out of business?<\/p>\n<p>Aviation is an unattractive industry from an investor point of view at the best of times, notwithstanding the passenger growth. Aeroplanes are expensive assets with few alternative uses, which limits the ability of airlines to reduce their capacity during lean periods \u2013 compared to, say, a manufacturing business that can close a plant and lay off workers. Airlines also have to deal with fluctuating expenses like fuel, which accounts for around a third of total costs. There is also extensive regulation, combative unions, relatively low barriers to entry and the fact that travellers can so easily shop around.<\/p>\n<figure><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/YfwDkaHE2Ss?wmode=transparent&amp;start=0\" width=\"440\" height=\"260\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/figure>\n<p>The sector did become more profitable in the early years of this decade, but this was <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mckinsey.com\/industries\/travel-transport-and-logistics\/our-insights\/winter-is-coming-the-future-of-european-aviation-and-how-to-survive-it\">due to<\/a> lower fuel prices rather than any underlying improvements. When fuel prices began climbing again in 2016, airlines <a href=\"https:\/\/money.cnn.com\/2018\/06\/04\/investing\/iata-airline-profits-oil\/index.html\">were<\/a> hit. This is particularly true of those like Flybmi and Monarch which were buying fuel in pounds sterling, since the currency has <a href=\"https:\/\/fullfact.org\/economy\/pound-fallen-since-brexit\/\">weakened<\/a> in the wake of the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/politics\/eu_referendum\/results\">2016 Brexit vote<\/a>. The political uncertainty has not helped British airlines either \u2013 though equally we must generally beware of companies using this as a scapegoat for bad performance.<\/p>\n<h2>The future\u2019s not bright<\/h2>\n<p>The net result is that it is very difficult for airlines to consistently turn a profit. Business failings are particularly likely to be punished \u2013 in the case of Flybmi, for instance, neither the company\u2019s costs nor its fares were low enough to compete effectively. It didn\u2019t have enough passengers for the number of routes it was offering, and could not change capacity without incurring more costs.<\/p>\n<p>It seems extremely likely that there will be more collapses in the sector, and more consolidation as weaker players get weeded out \u2013 Ryanair\u2019s <a href=\"http:\/\/www.travelweekly.co.uk\/articles\/310670\/ryanair-completes-takeover-of-laudamotion\">takeover<\/a> of the Austrian airline Laudamotion is one recent example; another is the Virgin Atlantic <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/business-46834827\">tie-up<\/a> with Flybe. The attractions of growing through acquisition are much the same as in many sectors: it gives you greater control of purchasing costs by boosting your negotiating power, while also potentially reducing the downward pressure on ticket prices by taking competitors out of the market.<\/p>\n<p>Takeovers are not a panacea, however, since fuel prices will still fluctuate and underlying negatives like high sunk costs into aeroplanes don\u2019t go away. At the same time, there is no shortage of competition from new entrants who are seemingly oblivious to the challenges in the industry.<\/p>\n<p>In 2017, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.anna.aero\/2017\/10\/18\/78-new-airlines-begin-life-2017-25-go-out-business\/\">for example<\/a>, 79 new airlines launched around the world at the same time as 25 went bust. In Europe, it was 29 entrants and 14 collapses. This rate of market entry is surely unsustainable, particularly in a mature market. It\u2019s also financially irrational when you reflect that the airlines sector <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mckinsey.com\/industries\/travel-transport-and-logistics\/our-insights\/between-roic-and-a-hard-place-the-puzzle-of-airline-economics\">produces<\/a> among the poorest returns on investment. Yet even during recessions, the rate of airline launches sometimes increases \u2013 see the graphic below.<\/p>\n<p>Your chances of launching a successful airline nowadays are far lower than, say, in the 1970s, when far fewer went under: there is overcapacity across the industry now, with one in five passenger seats empty across the world. Today\u2019s competition rules also make it much harder for nations to prop up failed airlines. The trouble is that this is a sexy industry; who wants to make widgets when you can pose in front of a plane? There is also a lot of hubris \u2013 driven by the handful of airlines that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mckinsey.com\/industries\/travel-transport-and-logistics\/our-insights\/between-roic-and-a-hard-place-the-puzzle-of-airline-economics\">do make<\/a> good returns, even as most do not.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"align-center zoomable\"><a href=\"https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/260399\/original\/file-20190222-195853-drs9ql.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip\"><img src=\"https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/260399\/original\/file-20190222-195853-drs9ql.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip\" sizes=\"(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/260399\/original\/file-20190222-195853-drs9ql.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=348&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/260399\/original\/file-20190222-195853-drs9ql.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=348&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/260399\/original\/file-20190222-195853-drs9ql.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=348&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/260399\/original\/file-20190222-195853-drs9ql.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=437&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/260399\/original\/file-20190222-195853-drs9ql.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=437&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/260399\/original\/file-20190222-195853-drs9ql.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=437&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w\" alt=\"\" \/><\/a><figcaption>\n<span class=\"attribution\"><a class=\"source\" href=\"https:\/\/www.iata.org\/pressroom\/facts_figures\/Documents\/vision-2050.pdf\">IATA<\/a><\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>This brings me to Ryanair, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.routesonline.com\/news\/29\/breaking-news\/274109\/europes-aviation-industry-by-numbers-latest-update\/\">biggest<\/a> carrier in Europe, which has itself issued several profit warnings \u2013 the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/business-46916389\">most recent<\/a> in January. The Irish airline, which boasts a 15% market share and 142m passengers, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/business-46916389\">blamed<\/a> the warning on reduced ticket prices in response to cutthroat competition.<\/p>\n<p>But don\u2019t look to Ryanair to become another of the casualties: chief executive Michael O&#8217;Leary <a href=\"https:\/\/investor.ryanair.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/Ryanair-Q3-FY19-Results.pdf\">still expects<\/a> the company to make profits after tax of around \u20ac1 billion to \u20ac1.1 billion (\u00a3871 billion to \u00a3958 billion) for the financial year 2019. This is in line with the operating margins in the region of 20% that the company <a href=\"https:\/\/www.macrotrends.net\/stocks\/charts\/RYAAY\/ryanair-holdings\/profit-margins\">has achieved<\/a> in recent years, <a href=\"https:\/\/centreforaviation.com\/analysis\/reports\/europes-airline-margin-ranking-2017-ryanair-and-wizz-air-stay-ahead-420039\">higher than<\/a> any European competitor.<\/p>\n<p>As the airline with the highest internal efficiency by some distance, the lowest customer fares, an ambitious expansion plan and the greatest geographical coverage in Europe, Ryanair retains its fundamental competitive advantages. Softer fares might have hurt the company, but they will have hurt other European airlines much more. Besides all the other factors that make life so difficult for the likes of Flybmi, getting thumped by Ryanair is another almost inevitable pitfall of being in the airline business.<!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img loading=\"lazy\" style=\"border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;\" src=\"https:\/\/counter.theconversation.com\/content\/112261\/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic\" alt=\"The Conversation\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\" \/><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: http:\/\/theconversation.com\/republishing-guidelines --><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/loizos-heracleous-209138\">Loizos Heracleous<\/a>, Professor of Strategy, <em><a href=\"http:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/warwick-business-school-university-of-warwick-2650\">Warwick Business School, University of Warwick<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<p>This article is republished from <a href=\"http:\/\/theconversation.com\">The Conversation<\/a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/airlines-are-going-bust-in-droves-so-why-do-so-many-people-try-to-launch-them-112261\">original article<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Loizos Heracleous, Warwick Business School, University of Warwick Yet another airline has collapsed \u2013 this time British operation Flybmi, costing almost 400 jobs as hundreds of flights were cancelled at short notice. It is the latest in a string of recent European airline failures, including Air Berlin, Alitalia, Monarch, Primera, Azur and Cobalt. This is [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":44,"featured_media":15478,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[5],"tags":[4799,2156,5924,5923],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15482"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/44"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=15482"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15482\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":15499,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15482\/revisions\/15499"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/15478"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15482"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=15482"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=15482"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}