{"id":15799,"date":"2019-03-22T04:43:21","date_gmt":"2019-03-22T04:43:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/?p=15799"},"modified":"2019-03-23T05:04:12","modified_gmt":"2019-03-23T05:04:12","slug":"baseballs-biggest-problem-isnt-pace-of-play-its-teams-tanking","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/baseballs-biggest-problem-isnt-pace-of-play-its-teams-tanking\/","title":{"rendered":"Baseball&#8217;s biggest problem isn&#8217;t pace of play \u2013 it&#8217;s teams tanking"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/adam-felder-703343\">Adam Felder<\/a>, <em><a href=\"http:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/university-of-virginia-752\">University of Virginia<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<p>Major League Baseball is in trouble. But for all of Commissioner Rob Manfred\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mlb.com\/news\/commissioner-rob-manfred-talks-pace-of-play-c266818890\">concerns about pace of play<\/a>, he\u2019s looking in the wrong direction.<\/p>\n<p>The game is healthy. The league isn\u2019t.<\/p>\n<p>Tanking \u2013 or intentionally losing \u2013 is endemic. Consider the Miami Marlins.<\/p>\n<p>Since former Yankees great Derek Jeter\u2019s ownership group took over the Marlins at the conclusion of the 2017 season, they\u2019ve:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Traded away the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/s\/stantmi03.shtml\">2017 Most Valuable Player<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Gotten rid of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/y\/yelicch01.shtml\">the eventual 2018 MVP, too<\/a><\/li>\n<li>And flipped a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/o\/ozunama01.shtml\">two-time All-Star<\/a> as well as the <a href=\"https:\/\/blogs.fangraphs.com\/the-argument-for-j-t-realmuto-as-baseballs-best-catcher\/\">game\u2019s best catcher<\/a>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The 2018 Marlins went 63-98, 14 wins worse than 2017. Projections for 2019 have them somewhere between \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbssports.com\/mlb\/news\/projected-2019-mlb-standings-yankees-dodgers-looking-like-favorites-as-baseball-waits-on-harper-and-machado\/\">just as lousy<\/a>\u201d and \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.fangraphs.com\/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings\">even worse<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s so dire that Jeter <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbssports.com\/mlb\/news\/derek-jeter-wants-marlins-fans-to-remember-ballpark-experience-not-the-scoreboard-in-2019\/\">said<\/a> fans might not remember the score of this season\u2019s games, but at least they\u2019ll remember the ballpark experience. Not exactly a ringing endorsement for Marlins baseball.<\/p>\n<p>For the Marlins, though, it\u2019s all part of a bigger plan: lose now, save money, accumulate young talent and \u2013 hopefully \u2013 win later.<\/p>\n<p>The Marlins are just one of many teams following this strategy, and there\u2019s a logic to their approach: There\u2019s no prize for mediocrity, and if a team, at its best, will probably miss the playoffs, why bother trying? Why not shed payroll and collect the higher draft picks that come from having a terrible record?<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/batten.virginia.edu\/school\/people\/adam-felder\">As a data analyst<\/a>, I wanted to study the underlying factors fueling this trend. It seems that the league\u2019s inequitable pay structure plays a big role.<\/p>\n<h2>The best get paid \u2026 less?<\/h2>\n<p>Let\u2019s begin by looking at who\u2019s been getting the bulk of the playing time in MLB since 1995. For the sake of space, we\u2019ll focus only on batters, using plate appearances \u2013 the number of times that player batted during the season \u2013 as the metric.<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" id=\"LLkFl\" class=\"tc-infographic-datawrapper\" style=\"border: none;\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/LLkFl\/3\/\" width=\"100%\" height=\"400px\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>There\u2019s no trend here. For the last quarter century, players in their mid-to-late 20s have played the most. Once they turn 30, they have fewer opportunities.<\/p>\n<p>Does this reflect their productivity?<\/p>\n<p>Determining the best players is a bit difficult since players are good at different things. But \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/about\/war_explained.shtml\">wins above replacement<\/a>\u201d is an all-encompassing metric that takes into account a number of discrete skill sets, from defense to baserunning to hitting.<\/p>\n<p>Looking at wins above replacement, players tend to hit peak productivity in their mid-20s, before experiencing a downturn around age 30. As they approach their mid-30s, they\u2019re a fraction of the player they once were.<\/p>\n<p>So it makes sense that players younger than 30 get most of the playing time: They\u2019re the most productive.<\/p>\n<p>They must make the most money, then, right?<\/p>\n<p>Wrong. Toggle between the tabs on the graph below and you\u2019ll see that players in their mid-to-late 20s are the most productive but that their counterparts over 30 draw the biggest salaries.<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" id=\"Prlqn\" class=\"tc-infographic-datawrapper\" style=\"border: none;\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/Prlqn\/4\/\" width=\"100%\" height=\"400px\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<h2>A labor agreement that handicaps players<\/h2>\n<p>This discrepancy between value and salary is due, in part, to <a href=\"http:\/\/www.mlbplayers.com\/pdf9\/5450407.pdf\">the current labor agreement<\/a> between players and ownership. Last negotiated in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/bullpen\/Collective_bargaining_agreement\">2016<\/a>, it has long resulted in a compensation structure that disproportionately favors established veterans.<\/p>\n<p>Here\u2019s the gist of how it works: For the first six years of a player\u2019s career \u2013 starting when he\u2019s first promoted to the major leagues \u2013 the team that drafted him has exclusive negotiating rights. That player makes the league minimum in his first three years. During seasons four, five and six, he makes 40 percent, 60 percent and 80 percent, respectively, of what he would make on the open market \u2013 a number determined by an <a href=\"https:\/\/library.fangraphs.com\/business\/mlb-salary-arbitration-rules\/\">arbitration panel<\/a> if the player and front office can\u2019t agree.<\/p>\n<p>Only after a full six years of service in the majors can he become a free agent \u2013 at which point he can negotiate with all 30 teams. This competition should drive his salary up and explains why players over 30 years old tend to make the most money.<\/p>\n<p>But the pay differential between a player who can negotiate with other teams and a player who cannot is so enormous that teams are incentivized to do everything in their power to keep a player from accruing a full six years of service time until it\u2019s absolutely necessary.<\/p>\n<p>Just a few weeks spent in the minors can prevent a player from hitting a full year of service time, so it\u2019s become common practice for teams to either leave a player in the minors at the start of the season or to \u201cyo-yo\u201d a player between the minors and majors <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theringer.com\/mlb\/2019\/3\/7\/18254501\/service-time-manipulation-vladimir-guerrero-jr-fernando-tatis-jr-peter-alonso\">just long enough to squeeze out a seventh year<\/a>. Teams have <a href=\"https:\/\/www.foxsports.com\/mlb\/just-a-bit-outside\/story\/houston-astros-jon-singleton-contract-prospects-jose-altuve-george-springer-dominguez-031915\">also started<\/a> to offer long-term, below-market contract extensions to players well before free agency \u2013 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mlbtraderumors.com\/2019\/03\/white-sox-nearing-extension-with-eloy-jimenez.html\">sometimes before they even play a major league game<\/a> \u2013 using the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.motherjones.com\/politics\/2014\/06\/baseball-broshuis-minor-league-wage-income\/\">sub-poverty wages<\/a> of minor league baseball to all but coerce a player into signing away his most marketable years.<\/p>\n<h2>The gap between winners and losers grows<\/h2>\n<p>Because teams have become well aware that most players\u2019 skills decline once they hit free agency, they\u2019ve been less and less likely to offer free agents lucrative contracts.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbssports.com\/mlb\/news\/biggest-mlb-contracts-in-history-where-mike-trout-bryce-harper-manny-machado-deals-rank\/\">Superstars<\/a> like Manny Machado, Bryce Harper and Mike Trout still make money. But a far greater number of less productive veterans lose out; their best years, after all, are behind them.<\/p>\n<p>The veterans that manage to find work end up doing so on shorter contracts for lower annual value than they might\u2019ve seen even a few seasons prior. Other players are absolutely good enough to crack an MLB roster but now go unsigned entirely.<\/p>\n<p>The problem is so bad that a general manager could have put together a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.usatoday.com\/story\/sports\/mlb\/2019\/01\/19\/mlb-free-agents-manny-machado-bryce-harper\/2617212002\/\">competitive team<\/a> with the free agents on the market before the beginning of this year\u2019s spring training, while All-Stars like <a href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/k\/keuchda01.shtml\">Dallas Keuchel<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/k\/kimbrcr01.shtml\">Craig Kimbrel<\/a> remained unsigned as of March 20.<\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s the point, though: A competitive team isn\u2019t the goal. Either a team wins, or it doesn\u2019t, and the chance to receive higher draft picks incentivizes not winning.<\/p>\n<p>Essentially, most teams look at more sophisticated versions of the previous graphs to determine a \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2017\/02\/11\/sports\/baseball\/spring-training-major-league-teams.html\">competitive window<\/a>\u201d in which they can lump all their young talent onto the field simultaneously.<\/p>\n<p>The age of a typical free agent \u2013 and the length and cost of a typical free agent contract \u2013 make signing him a losing proposition for most teams. If a team does decide to wade into free agency, it\u2019ll only be when that team believes a few players are the difference between making or missing the playoffs.<\/p>\n<p>The result? MLB is sorting itself into haves and have-nots. There are more super teams trying to win by beating up growing numbers of teams trying to tank. One could credibly point to roughly one-third of teams in the league on Opening Day and claim they\u2019re not trying to win in 2019.<\/p>\n<p>The graph below looks at how varied the records of teams have been over time, a sort of <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Gini_coefficient\">Gini coefficient<\/a> \u2013 a measure used to determine income inequality \u2013 for baseball.<\/p>\n<p>A low value in any given season suggests that there were relatively few teams that stood out from the pack \u2013 good or bad. A high value in any given season suggests that there were relatively few mediocre teams and instead a great number of exceptionally good or exceptionally bad ones.<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" id=\"mJLqE\" class=\"tc-infographic-datawrapper\" style=\"border: none;\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/mJLqE\/4\/\" width=\"100%\" height=\"400px\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>Last season marked the highest gap between haves and have-nots in the last quarter century.<\/p>\n<p>That behavior makes sense for individual teams, but it\u2019s bad news for the league. A great way to lose fans is to lose for seasons on end. <a href=\"https:\/\/cupola.gettysburg.edu\/cgi\/viewcontent.cgi?article=1000&amp;context=mathfac\">Several<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/web.mst.edu\/%7Edavismc\/attendance%20var.pdf\">analyses<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/thesportjournal.org\/article\/attendance-still-matters-in-mlb-the-relationship-with-winning-percentage\/\">have shown<\/a> that a team\u2019s ability to win is highly correlated with a team\u2019s attendance. This shouldn\u2019t shock anyone: It\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Major_League_(film)#Plot\">literally the plot<\/a> of the classic movie \u201cMajor League.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>While each team is acting in its own self-interest, the collective trend is problematic. Whether through alienating fans or forcing a labor dispute, there\u2019s reason to believe the league is headed for trouble.<!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img loading=\"lazy\" style=\"border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;\" src=\"https:\/\/counter.theconversation.com\/content\/113094\/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic\" alt=\"The Conversation\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\" \/><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: http:\/\/theconversation.com\/republishing-guidelines --><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/adam-felder-703343\">Adam Felder<\/a>, Director of Data Analytics, Frank Batten School of Leadership and Public Policy, <em><a href=\"http:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/university-of-virginia-752\">University of Virginia<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<p>This article is republished from <a href=\"http:\/\/theconversation.com\">The Conversation<\/a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/baseballs-biggest-problem-isnt-pace-of-play-its-teams-tanking-113094\">original article<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Adam Felder, University of Virginia Major League Baseball is in trouble. But for all of Commissioner Rob Manfred\u2019s concerns about pace of play, he\u2019s looking in the wrong direction. The game is healthy. The league isn\u2019t. Tanking \u2013 or intentionally losing \u2013 is endemic. Consider the Miami Marlins. Since former Yankees great Derek Jeter\u2019s ownership [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":44,"featured_media":15797,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[293],"tags":[179,5830,736,502,1840,390,6060,6061,5155],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15799"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/44"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=15799"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15799\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":15803,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15799\/revisions\/15803"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/15797"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15799"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=15799"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=15799"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}