{"id":19971,"date":"2020-03-14T01:40:54","date_gmt":"2020-03-14T01:40:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/?p=19971"},"modified":"2020-03-15T10:26:43","modified_gmt":"2020-03-15T10:26:43","slug":"the-coronavirus-will-delay-agricultural-export-surges-promised-in-trade-deal-with-china","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/the-coronavirus-will-delay-agricultural-export-surges-promised-in-trade-deal-with-china\/","title":{"rendered":"The coronavirus will delay agricultural export surges promised in trade deal with China"},"content":{"rendered":"

Wendong Zhang<\/a>, Iowa State University<\/a><\/em> and Tao Xiong<\/a>, Huazhong Agricultural University<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

The novel coronavirus<\/a> has shocked the world\u2019s economies<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The virus has spread to more than 100 countries<\/a> and many U.S. states<\/a>. This has rattled global stock markets<\/a>, plunging the Dow more than 2,000 points on March 9 \u2013 the biggest one-day drop since the 2008 Great Recession<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Concerns about potential global economic decline has made implementation of the U.S.-China phase one trade deal uncertain<\/a>. This deal requires China to purchase an additional US$12.5 billion worth of U.S. agricultural products in 2020, and $19.5 billion more in 2021.<\/p>\n

In our recent research<\/a> on the impacts of the U.S.-China trade war on U.S. agriculture, we<\/a> argue<\/a> that China has the capability to make these purchases<\/a>, despite delays and disruptions to supply chains and trade flows caused by the coronavirus. A resilient and recovering Chinese economy<\/a> means the country can comply with the trade deal and potentially minimize damage to the U.S. economy from an ongoing trade war.<\/p>\n

Delays and uncertainty<\/h2>\n

Make no mistake. These disruptions have been profound.<\/p>\n

Wuhan and other cities in Hubei province, home to 66 million people, were on lockdown<\/a> for more than one month<\/a> and now are facing food<\/a> and medical supply shortages<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The shutdowns in Hubei province have created massive problems for Chinese agricultural producers. The transport restrictions prevent much-needed animal feed such as corn and soybean meal from getting delivered to livestock farms<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The first week of February saw five arrivals and seven departures<\/a> from the Wuhan port compared to 72 arrivals and 47 departures in the same week last year. Only about one-third of people<\/a> who left Beijing and Shanghai to celebrate the Chinese lunar new year in January and February have returned, because of travel restrictions.<\/p>\n

Million of truckers<\/a>, who transport 73% of goods in China, are still waiting to come back to work, and three of China\u2019s biggest coastal ports \u2013 Shanghai, Ningbo and Xingang \u2013 are reportedly clogged with refrigerated containers<\/a> full of imported vegetables, fruit and frozen meat.<\/p>\n

Vessels with crew members showing coronavirus symptoms can be denied entry<\/a> into U.S. ports. However, tighter regulations at the Tacoma and Seattle ports could hurt U.S. producers and exporters of oysters, clams and Dungeness crab<\/a>, as well as wheat and soybean farmers<\/a>.<\/p>\n