{"id":21706,"date":"2020-08-16T19:48:19","date_gmt":"2020-08-16T19:48:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/?p=21706"},"modified":"2020-08-17T22:25:55","modified_gmt":"2020-08-17T22:25:55","slug":"up-to-204691-extra-deaths-in-the-us-so-far-in-this-pandemic-year","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/up-to-204691-extra-deaths-in-the-us-so-far-in-this-pandemic-year\/","title":{"rendered":"Up to 204,691 extra deaths in the US so far in this pandemic year"},"content":{"rendered":"

Ronald D. Fricker Jr.<\/a>, Virginia Tech<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

\"204,691<\/a>
\nThe Conversation<\/span>, CC BY-ND<\/a><\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The number of deaths in the United States through July 2020 is 8% to 12% higher than it would have been if the coronavirus pandemic had never happened. That\u2019s at least 164,937 deaths above the number expected for the first seven months of the year \u2013 16,183 more than the number attributed to COVID-19<\/a> thus far for that period \u2013 and it could be as high as 204,691.<\/p>\n

Tracking deaths<\/h2>\n

When someone dies, the death certificate records an immediate cause of death, along with up to three underlying conditions that \u201cinitiated the events resulting in death<\/a>.\u201d The certificate is filed with the local health department, and the details are reported to the National Center for Health Statistics<\/a>.<\/p>\n

As part of the National Vital Statistics System<\/a>, the NCHS then uses this information in various ways, such as tabulating the leading causes of death<\/a> in the United States \u2013 currently heart disease<\/a>, followed by cancer. Sometime this fall, COVID-19 will likely become the third-largest cause of death<\/a> for 2020.<\/p>\n

Projecting from the past<\/h2>\n

To calculate excess deaths requires a comparison to what would have occurred if COVID-19 had not existed. Obviously, it\u2019s not possible to observe what didn\u2019t happen, but it is possible to estimate it using historical data. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention does this using a statistical model<\/a>, based on the previous three years of mortality data, incorporating seasonal trends as well as adjustments for data-reporting delays.<\/p>\n

So, looking at what happened over the past three years, the CDC projects what might have been. By using a statistical model, they are also able to calculate the uncertainty in their estimates. That allows statisticians like me<\/a> to assess whether the observed data look unusual compared to projections.<\/p>\n