{"id":23264,"date":"2020-12-07T02:07:47","date_gmt":"2020-12-07T02:07:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/?p=23264"},"modified":"2020-12-09T13:48:48","modified_gmt":"2020-12-09T13:48:48","slug":"why-biden-will-find-it-hard-to-undo-trumps-costly-america-first-trade-policy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/why-biden-will-find-it-hard-to-undo-trumps-costly-america-first-trade-policy\/","title":{"rendered":"Why Biden will find it hard to undo Trump’s costly ‘America first’ trade policy"},"content":{"rendered":"

Charles Hankla<\/a>, Georgia State University<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

Since becoming president-elect, Joe Biden has signaled that restoring America\u2019s leadership<\/a> on the world stage is among his highest priorities \u2013 an intention aptly demonstrated<\/a> by his Cabinet picks.<\/p>\n

Biden\u2019s nominees are \u201cready to lead the world, not retreat from it,\u201d he said on Nov. 24<\/a>. \u201cAmerica is back.\u201d<\/p>\n

Perhaps nowhere is this return more urgent than in trade policy, a topic I follow closely as a scholar of international political economy<\/a>. Over the past four years, President Donald Trump has ripped up trade deals<\/a>, launched damaging trade wars<\/a> and gunked up<\/a> the workings of international trade organizations.<\/p>\n

All of this has ceded global economic leadership<\/a> to China, as we can see from the trade negotiations Beijing recently oversaw with 14 other Asian nations. In November, the countries met in China\u2019s capital and formally signed what is now the world\u2019s largest regional free trade pact, covering nearly a third of humanity.<\/p>\n

Biden no doubt longs to return<\/a> to some semblance of the \u201cgolden era\u201d of U.S. leadership, the half-century following World War II when America helped create<\/a> and sustain the rules and institutions that fueled globalization.<\/p>\n

But after four years of Trump\u2019s \u201cretreat,\u201d<\/a> it may be harder to return to leading than Biden thinks \u2013 thanks to the growing number of Americans on both the right and the left who are skeptical of free trade.<\/p>\n

The costs of \u2018America first\u2019<\/h2>\n

While Trump advocated a trade policy he labeled \u201cAmerica first<\/a>,\u201d it\u2019s probably not the best description.<\/p>\n

The policy has involved applying punitive tariffs<\/a> on specific products such as steel and aluminum and on whole countries \u2013 most notably China \u2013 at a scale not seen in decades. But the price to the U.S. has been high.<\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s tariffs have cost American businesses<\/a> and consumers<\/a> tens of billions of dollars. And they have seriously hurt U.S. farmers<\/a> and manufacturers<\/a> by closing off export markets for American products in China and elsewhere. Moreover, the administration has spent tens of billions more<\/a> trying to aid farmers harmed by the tariffs.<\/p>\n

Putting Americans first was also the stated reason<\/a> behind the president\u2019s decision to withdraw from trade deals like the Trans-Pacific Partnership<\/a> and focus on bilateral rather than multilateral agreements. Aside from denying American companies the benefits free trade pacts provide, this also has meant the U.S. increasingly sits on the sidelines<\/a> when global trade rules are being written.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s bad news for America because even when rules apply only to the trade agreement in question, they generally serve as a foundation for future deals<\/a> \u2013 including negotiations exclusively with the U.S. So if the U.S. government isn\u2019t at the table, it could have long-term ramifications.<\/p>\n

In America\u2019s stead, other powerhouses will seek to dictate the terms of trade with U.S. allies, as Beijing did with the trade accord it signed in November. And Chinese interests \u2013 on the environment, labor standards and especially intellectual property protection \u2013 are not the same as those of the U.S.<\/p>\n

Biden and the populist right<\/h2>\n

So there are very strong reasons to reengage with the world. Global trade may even be key to helping the U.S. recover<\/a> from the coronavirus pandemic. But to do so, Biden will have to navigate two groups that could be a thorn in his side.<\/p>\n

The first is the populist right<\/a> \u2013 conservative, mostly working-class voters who warmed to Trump\u2019s anti-trade platform in 2016.<\/p>\n

Like Trump, they tend to see trade through a nationalist lens in which the \u201cwinner takes all.\u201d That is, they understand trade not as beneficial<\/a> for all parties but rather as a competition that can be won or lost based on who\u2019s running a trade surplus<\/a> or who\u2019s gaining or losing market share.<\/p>\n

Furthermore, as the base of the Republican Party<\/a> increasingly shifts to encompass<\/a> less educated white voters, this has critical implications for the GOP. Basic trade theory<\/a> suggests that, in a rich country such as the United States, lower-skilled workers are hurt by free trade, while skilled workers and capitalists get most of the benefits. This is because lower-income countries will have a comparative advantage in lower-skilled labor.<\/p>\n

Many working-class voters<\/a> are understandably feeling left behind by this new economy and ignored by the government. Free trade has become a target of their ire, helping drive the Republican Party\u2019s shift toward nationalism \u2013 and protectionism \u2013 and shoving aside the traditional pro-business conservatives.<\/p>\n

If Republicans manage to hold onto<\/a> the Senate in January, it\u2019s very likely that the growing power of the populist right will continue to influence trade skepticism in the party. This would tie Biden\u2019s hands when it comes to negotiating new trade deals or taking other steps that will require Senate approval.<\/p>\n

But even if Democrats manage to take the Senate, Biden will likely still need to court these working-class, mostly white voters when he seeks to maintain his congressional majorities in the midterms. Either way, they will remain a potent force well after Trump is gone.<\/p>\n

The protectionist left<\/h2>\n

But the populist right is not the only important part of the U.S. political spectrum that is skeptical of trade.<\/p>\n

The populist left \u2013 led especially by Sen. Bernie Sanders<\/a> \u2013 has long favored<\/a> limiting foreign trade. Its motivations are somewhat different, focused more on a skepticism of corporate power and trade\u2019s impact on labor rights and the environment. But they are also similar when it comes to the many working-class Americans<\/a> and young people<\/a> who form the left wing of the Democratic Party.<\/p>\n

In the primaries, Biden beat Sanders and others who offered a more skeptical view of trade. But still, he will have to accommodate the new energy<\/a> coursing through the left in America, including when it comes to its views on trade<\/a>. And the populist left will have a lot more power than the right in Biden\u2019s Washington, from members of Congress to key Democratic interest groups like labor unions<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Potent populists<\/h2>\n

A pro-trade optimist might point out that polls, like this one conducted in late 2019<\/a>, suggest overwhelming support for free trade among voters in both parties. Polls, however, don\u2019t always measure how strongly and consistently these views are held.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s more, because the harms of free trade are more concentrated<\/a> than its benefits, the minority of voters who push for protectionist policies are often more powerful than their numbers might suggest. Ultimately, although populists on the right and the left represent a minority position on trade, they will remain potent political forces for the foreseeable future.<\/p>\n

[Deep knowledge, daily.<\/em> Sign up for The Conversation\u2019s newsletter<\/a>.]<\/p>\n

For these reasons, I believe it is unlikely that Biden will be able to return to business as usual on trade. While Trump\u2019s aggressive protectionism will likely go away, Biden will probably keep up the pressure on China and has already adopted<\/a> some of his predecessor\u2019s \u201cAmerica first\u201d rhetoric to appeal to the working class. And for his more progressive supporters, you\u2019ll likely see him push for stronger labor and environmental protections in future trade agreements.<\/p>\n

Biden might not be able to throw the door to global trade wide open, but he should be able to keep it from shutting any further.\"The<\/p>\n

Charles Hankla<\/a>, Associate Professor of Political Science, Georgia State University<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

This article is republished from The Conversation<\/a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Charles Hankla, Georgia State University Since becoming president-elect, Joe Biden has signaled that restoring America\u2019s leadership on the world stage is among his highest priorities \u2013 an intention aptly demonstrated by his Cabinet picks. Biden\u2019s nominees are \u201cready to lead the world, not retreat from it,\u201d he said on Nov. 24. \u201cAmerica is back.\u201d Perhaps […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":44,"featured_media":23265,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[5,277],"tags":[1354,145,479,1011,1894,780,9103,2775,1558,3931,5212],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23264"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/44"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=23264"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23264\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":23274,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23264\/revisions\/23274"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/23265"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=23264"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=23264"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=23264"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}