{"id":24618,"date":"2021-03-09T01:42:00","date_gmt":"2021-03-09T01:42:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/?p=24618"},"modified":"2021-03-10T05:27:11","modified_gmt":"2021-03-10T05:27:11","slug":"how-18-million-americans-could-move-into-rural-areas-without-leaving-home","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/how-18-million-americans-could-move-into-rural-areas-without-leaving-home\/","title":{"rendered":"How 18 million Americans could move into rural areas \u2013 without leaving home"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/devon-brenner-580915\">Devon Brenner<\/a>, <em><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/mississippi-state-university-1970\">Mississippi State University<\/a><\/em> and <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/jesse-longhurst-1215934\">Jesse Longhurst<\/a>, <em><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/southern-oregon-university-5080\">Southern Oregon University<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>About 46 million Americans \u2013 14% of the nation\u2019s inhabitants \u2013 are currently classified as living in rural areas. That number could jump to 64 million \u2013 an increase of nearly 40% \u2013 without anyone moving into a new home. That could actually hurt small cities and rural communities across the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The federal government <a href=\"https:\/\/www.census.gov\/topics\/housing\/housing-patterns\/about\/core-based-statistical-areas.html\">classifies communities\u2019 characteristics based on their populations<\/a>, according to a definition created by the federal Office of Management and Budget. The criteria haven\u2019t substantially changed since the 1940s. Since then, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.regulations.gov\/document\/OMB-2021-0001-0002\">U.S. population has more than doubled<\/a>, from 152 million in 1950 to more than <a href=\"https:\/\/datacommons.org\/place\/country\/USA?topic=Demographics\">328 million in 2019<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The main dividing line is between communities \u2013 which include both towns and cities and their surrounding counties \u2013 with more than 50,000 people and those with fewer than that number. Over the past 70 years, the number of areas with at least that many people has <a href=\"https:\/\/www2.census.gov\/library\/publications\/decennial\/1950\/pc-03\/pc-3-03.pdf\">increased from 168<\/a> to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.census.gov\/programs-surveys\/metro-micro\/about.html\">384<\/a> as small towns have grown into small cities. For example, from 1950 to 2010, the population of Lawrence, Kansas, grew from 23,351 to 87,643.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Under the current definition, Colbert County, Alabama \u2013 population 54,428 \u2013 is in the same category as Los Angeles County \u2013 population over 10 million. As the Trump administration ended, federal officials decided some more nuance would be useful in understanding American communities. They proposed to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalregister.gov\/documents\/2021\/01\/19\/2021-00988\/recommendations-from-the-metropolitan-and-micropolitan-statistical-area-standards-review-committee\">change the dividing line<\/a> to populations of more than 100,000 \u2013 and the effort appears to be continuing under the Biden administration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That change would effectively move everyone who lives in places with 50,000 to 100,000 from urban to rural life, because their cities, including San Luis Obispo, California, and Battle Creek, Michigan, will no longer be considered large enough to count as metropolitan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2>Redefining rural<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The government doesn\u2019t specifically use this system to label places as \u201curban\u201d or \u201crural.\u201d Instead, there are three government categories \u2013 \u201cmetropolitan,\u201d \u201cmicropolitan\u201d and \u201coutside a core based statistical area.\u201d However, most <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ers.usda.gov\/topics\/rural-economy-population\/rural-classifications\/what-is-rural.aspx\">government agencies<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/rtc.ruralinstitute.umt.edu\/research-findings\/geography\/county-classification\/\">researchers<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ruralhealthinfo.org\/topics\/what-is-rural\">advocates<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/dailyyonder.com\/last-minute-trump-administration-proposal-would-effectively-redefine-rural\/2021\/01\/25\/\">media outlets<\/a> use these classifications to sort communities into two groups \u2013 equating \u201cmetropolitan\u201d with \u201curban\u201d and <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/where-is-rural-america-and-what-does-it-look-like-72045\">the other two categories together<\/a> as \u201crural.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Making the proposed change would mean 144 areas with populations between 50,000 and 100,000, and the 251 counties they occupy, would no longer be classified as \u201cmetropolitan,\u201d but rather as \u201cmicropolitan\u201d \u2013 and therefore effectively rural \u2013 including Flagstaff, Arizona, and Blacksburg, Virginia. The change would leave Wyoming without any metropolitan areas at all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Office of Management and Budget is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalregister.gov\/documents\/2021\/01\/19\/2021-00988\/recommendations-from-the-metropolitan-and-micropolitan-statistical-area-standards-review-committee\">accepting comments<\/a> about this proposed change until March 19.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\nhttps:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/LY6ok\/2\/\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2>Looking at the numbers<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Changing how rural areas are defined could <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/most-of-americas-rural-areas-are-doomed-to-decline-115343\">change Americans\u2019 understanding of rural life<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For instance, the current data reveal that rural areas have less access to <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/covid-19-lockdowns-expose-the-digital-have-nots-in-rural-areas-heres-which-policies-can-get-them-connected-144324\">broadband internet<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/rural-hospital-closings-reach-crisis-stage-leaving-millions-without-nearby-health-care-124072\">health care services<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But if the homes and communities of 18 million more Americans are added to those rural statistics, the numbers could look better. That rosier picture \u2013 which would not be the result of any actual changes to Americans\u2019 lives \u2013 could reduce public and political pressure to improve life in rural communities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It\u2019s also not clear whether 100,000 is the right boundary for urban living \u2013 or of there is an exact number at all. To people in major cities, a community of 80,000 like Santa Fe, New Mexico, may be more similar to the 22,000-person Roseburg, Oregon, than to Chicago or Miami. To a rancher on the Plains, with fewer than one person per square mile, though, Santa Fe may qualify as a \u201cbig city,\u201d with chain stores, hospitals and government offices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2>More than a statistical shift<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Though the government\u2019s proposal says it\u2019s meant as a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalregister.gov\/documents\/2021\/01\/19\/2021-00988\/recommendations-from-the-metropolitan-and-micropolitan-statistical-area-standards-review-committee\">statistical change only<\/a>, the classifications are <a href=\"https:\/\/gwipp.gwu.edu\/counting-dollars-2020-role-decennial-census-geographic-distribution-federal-funds\">commonly used by government agencies, charities and other organizations<\/a> to determine which communities are eligible for their funding or programs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The change could make many small American cities, which would be newly identified as rural, ineligible for money to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hudexchange.info\/programs\/consolidated-plan\/consolidated-plan-process-grant-programs-and-related-hud-programs\/\">help community planning<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rtands.com\/passenger\/u-s-secretary-of-transporation-elaine-l-chao-announces-14-billion-for-nations-public-transit-systems-during-covid-19-emergency\/\">public transit<\/a> \u2013 even if they currently get that money.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Communities currently designated as rural may be hurt, too. If Congress and states don\u2019t allocate more funds to serve the increased number of people classified as living in rural areas, the money that is available \u2013 like <a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalregister.gov\/documents\/2020\/09\/23\/2020-20971\/revised-geographic-eligibility-for-federal-office-of-rural-health-policy-grants\">rural health grants<\/a> \u2013 would be spread more thinly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.<\/em> <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/us\/newsletters\/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&amp;utm_medium=inline-link&amp;utm_campaign=newsletter-text&amp;utm_content=deepknowledge\">Sign up for The Conversation\u2019s newsletter<\/a>.]<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/devon-brenner-580915\">Devon Brenner<\/a>, Assistant VP for Outreach and Initiatives, Office of Research and Economic Development, and Professor, College of Education, <em><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/mississippi-state-university-1970\">Mississippi State University<\/a><\/em> and <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/jesse-longhurst-1215934\">Jesse Longhurst<\/a>, Assistant Professor of Education, <em><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/southern-oregon-university-5080\">Southern Oregon University<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This article is republished from <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\">The Conversation<\/a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/how-18-million-americans-could-move-into-rural-areas-without-leaving-home-156471\">original article<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/devon-brenner-580915\">Devon Brenner<\/a>, <em><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/mississippi-state-university-1970\">Mississippi State University<\/a><\/em> and <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/jesse-longhurst-1215934\">Jesse Longhurst<\/a>, <em><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/southern-oregon-university-5080\">Southern Oregon University<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>About 46 million Americans \u2013 14% of the nation\u2019s inhabitants \u2013 are currently classified as living in rural areas. That number could jump to 64 million \u2013 an increase of nearly 40% \u2013 without anyone moving into a new home. That could actually hurt small cities and rural communities across the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The federal government <a href=\"https:\/\/www.census.gov\/topics\/housing\/housing-patterns\/about\/core-based-statistical-areas.html\">classifies communities\u2019 characteristics based on their populations<\/a>, according to a definition created by the federal Office of Management and Budget. The criteria haven\u2019t substantially changed since the 1940s. Since then, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.regulations.gov\/document\/OMB-2021-0001-0002\">U.S. population has more than doubled<\/a>, from 152 million in 1950 to more than <a href=\"https:\/\/datacommons.org\/place\/country\/USA?topic=Demographics\">328 million in 2019<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The main dividing line is between communities \u2013 which include both towns and cities and their surrounding counties \u2013 with more than 50,000 people and those with fewer than that number. Over the past 70 years, the number of areas with at least that many people has <a href=\"https:\/\/www2.census.gov\/library\/publications\/decennial\/1950\/pc-03\/pc-3-03.pdf\">increased from 168<\/a> to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.census.gov\/programs-surveys\/metro-micro\/about.html\">384<\/a> as small towns have grown into small cities. For example, from 1950 to 2010, the population of Lawrence, Kansas, grew from 23,351 to 87,643.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Under the current definition, Colbert County, Alabama \u2013 population 54,428 \u2013 is in the same category as Los Angeles County \u2013 population over 10 million. As the Trump administration ended, federal officials decided some more nuance would be useful in understanding American communities. They proposed to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalregister.gov\/documents\/2021\/01\/19\/2021-00988\/recommendations-from-the-metropolitan-and-micropolitan-statistical-area-standards-review-committee\">change the dividing line<\/a> to populations of more than 100,000 \u2013 and the effort appears to be continuing under the Biden administration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That change would effectively move everyone who lives in places with 50,000 to 100,000 from urban to rural life, because their cities, including San Luis Obispo, California, and Battle Creek, Michigan, will no longer be considered large enough to count as metropolitan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2>Redefining rural<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The government doesn\u2019t specifically use this system to label places as \u201curban\u201d or \u201crural.\u201d Instead, there are three government categories \u2013 \u201cmetropolitan,\u201d \u201cmicropolitan\u201d and \u201coutside a core based statistical area.\u201d However, most <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ers.usda.gov\/topics\/rural-economy-population\/rural-classifications\/what-is-rural.aspx\">government agencies<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/rtc.ruralinstitute.umt.edu\/research-findings\/geography\/county-classification\/\">researchers<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ruralhealthinfo.org\/topics\/what-is-rural\">advocates<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/dailyyonder.com\/last-minute-trump-administration-proposal-would-effectively-redefine-rural\/2021\/01\/25\/\">media outlets<\/a> use these classifications to sort communities into two groups \u2013 equating \u201cmetropolitan\u201d with \u201curban\u201d and <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/where-is-rural-america-and-what-does-it-look-like-72045\">the other two categories together<\/a> as \u201crural.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Making the proposed change would mean 144 areas with populations between 50,000 and 100,000, and the 251 counties they occupy, would no longer be classified as \u201cmetropolitan,\u201d but rather as \u201cmicropolitan\u201d \u2013 and therefore effectively rural \u2013 including Flagstaff, Arizona, and Blacksburg, Virginia. The change would leave Wyoming without any metropolitan areas at all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Office of Management and Budget is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalregister.gov\/documents\/2021\/01\/19\/2021-00988\/recommendations-from-the-metropolitan-and-micropolitan-statistical-area-standards-review-committee\">accepting comments<\/a> about this proposed change until March 19.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\nhttps:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/LY6ok\/2\/\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2>Looking at the numbers<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Changing how rural areas are defined could <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/most-of-americas-rural-areas-are-doomed-to-decline-115343\">change Americans\u2019 understanding of rural life<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For instance, the current data reveal that rural areas have less access to <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/covid-19-lockdowns-expose-the-digital-have-nots-in-rural-areas-heres-which-policies-can-get-them-connected-144324\">broadband internet<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/rural-hospital-closings-reach-crisis-stage-leaving-millions-without-nearby-health-care-124072\">health care services<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But if the homes and communities of 18 million more Americans are added to those rural statistics, the numbers could look better. That rosier picture \u2013 which would not be the result of any actual changes to Americans\u2019 lives \u2013 could reduce public and political pressure to improve life in rural communities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It\u2019s also not clear whether 100,000 is the right boundary for urban living \u2013 or of there is an exact number at all. To people in major cities, a community of 80,000 like Santa Fe, New Mexico, may be more similar to the 22,000-person Roseburg, Oregon, than to Chicago or Miami. To a rancher on the Plains, with fewer than one person per square mile, though, Santa Fe may qualify as a \u201cbig city,\u201d with chain stores, hospitals and government offices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2>More than a statistical shift<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Though the government\u2019s proposal says it\u2019s meant as a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalregister.gov\/documents\/2021\/01\/19\/2021-00988\/recommendations-from-the-metropolitan-and-micropolitan-statistical-area-standards-review-committee\">statistical change only<\/a>, the classifications are <a href=\"https:\/\/gwipp.gwu.edu\/counting-dollars-2020-role-decennial-census-geographic-distribution-federal-funds\">commonly used by government agencies, charities and other organizations<\/a> to determine which communities are eligible for their funding or programs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The change could make many small American cities, which would be newly identified as rural, ineligible for money to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hudexchange.info\/programs\/consolidated-plan\/consolidated-plan-process-grant-programs-and-related-hud-programs\/\">help community planning<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rtands.com\/passenger\/u-s-secretary-of-transporation-elaine-l-chao-announces-14-billion-for-nations-public-transit-systems-during-covid-19-emergency\/\">public transit<\/a> \u2013 even if they currently get that money.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Communities currently designated as rural may be hurt, too. If Congress and states don\u2019t allocate more funds to serve the increased number of people classified as living in rural areas, the money that is available \u2013 like <a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalregister.gov\/documents\/2020\/09\/23\/2020-20971\/revised-geographic-eligibility-for-federal-office-of-rural-health-policy-grants\">rural health grants<\/a> \u2013 would be spread more thinly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.<\/em> <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/us\/newsletters\/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&amp;utm_medium=inline-link&amp;utm_campaign=newsletter-text&amp;utm_content=deepknowledge\">Sign up for The Conversation\u2019s newsletter<\/a>.]<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/devon-brenner-580915\">Devon Brenner<\/a>, Assistant VP for Outreach and Initiatives, Office of Research and Economic Development, and Professor, College of Education, <em><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/mississippi-state-university-1970\">Mississippi State University<\/a><\/em> and <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/jesse-longhurst-1215934\">Jesse Longhurst<\/a>, Assistant Professor of Education, <em><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/southern-oregon-university-5080\">Southern Oregon University<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This article is republished from <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\">The Conversation<\/a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/how-18-million-americans-could-move-into-rural-areas-without-leaving-home-156471\">original article<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Devon Brenner, Mississippi State University and Jesse Longhurst, Southern Oregon University About 46 million Americans \u2013 14% of the nation\u2019s inhabitants \u2013 are currently classified as living in rural areas. That number could jump to 64 million \u2013 an increase of nearly 40% \u2013 without anyone moving into a new home. That could actually hurt [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":44,"featured_media":24619,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[277,10],"tags":[9570,2077,2078,9571,9572,2076,2646],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24618"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/44"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=24618"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24618\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":24630,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24618\/revisions\/24630"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/24619"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=24618"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=24618"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=24618"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}