{"id":27070,"date":"2021-10-07T03:18:00","date_gmt":"2021-10-07T03:18:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/?p=27070"},"modified":"2021-10-08T07:51:57","modified_gmt":"2021-10-08T07:51:57","slug":"what-is-chaos-a-complex-systems-scientist-explains","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/what-is-chaos-a-complex-systems-scientist-explains\/","title":{"rendered":"What is chaos? A complex systems scientist explains"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Mitchell Newberry<\/a>, University of Michigan<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chaos evokes images of the dinosaurs running wild in Jurassic Park, or my friend\u2019s toddler ravaging the living room.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a chaotic world, you never know what to expect. Stuff is happening all the time, driven by any kind of random impulse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But chaos has a deeper meaning in connection to physics and climate science, related to how certain systems \u2013 like the weather or the behavior of a toddler \u2013 are fundamentally unpredictable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scientists define chaos as the amplified effects of tiny changes in the present moment that lead to long-term unpredictability. Picture two almost identical storylines. In one version, two people bump into each other in a train station; but in the other, the train arrives 10 seconds earlier and the meeting never happens. From then on, the two plot lines might be totally different.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"busy<\/a>
Who doesn\u2019t meet in the crowd if the train arrives a few seconds sooner? urbancow\/E+ via Getty Images<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Usually those little details don\u2019t matter, but sometimes tiny differences have consequences that keep compounding. And that compounding is what leads to chaos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A shocking series of discoveries in the 1960s and \u201870s showed just how easy it is to create chaos. Nothing could be more predictable than the swinging pendulum of a grandfather clock. But if you separate a pendulum halfway down by adding another axle, the swinging becomes wildly unpredictable<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chaos is different from random<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

As a complex systems scientist<\/a>, I think a lot about what is random<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What\u2019s the difference between a pack of cards and the weather?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

You can\u2019t predict your next poker hand \u2013 if you could, they\u2019d throw you out of the casino \u2013 whereas you can probably guess tomorrow\u2019s weather. But what about the weather two weeks from now? Or a year from now?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Randomness, like cards or dice, is unpredictable because we just don\u2019t have the right information. Chaos is somewhere between random and predictable. A hallmark of chaotic systems is predictability in the short term that breaks down quickly over time, as in river rapids or ecosystems<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"panels<\/a>
Chaos can explain why climate is predictable while weather isn\u2019t. S\u00f6ren Lubitz Photography\/Moment via Getty Images<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Why chaos theory matters<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Isaac Newton envisioned physics as a set of rules governing a clockwork universe<\/a> \u2013 rules that, once set in motion, would lead to a predetermined outcome. But chaos theory proves that even the strictest rules and nearly perfect information can lead<\/a> to unpredictable outcomes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This realization has practical applications for deciding what kinds of things are predictable at all. Chaos is why no weather app can tell you the weather two weeks from now \u2013 it\u2019s just impossible to know.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other hand, broader predictions can still be possible. We can\u2019t forecast the weather a year from now, but we still know what the weather is like this time of year. That\u2019s how climate can be predictable<\/a> even when the weather isn\u2019t. Theories of chaos and randomness help scientists sort out which kinds of predictions make sense and which don\u2019t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Read other short accessible explanations of newsworthy subjects written by academics in their areas of expertise for The Conversation U.S. here<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mitchell Newberry<\/a>, Assistant Professor of Complex Systems, University of Michigan<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This article is republished from The Conversation<\/a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Mitchell Newberry, University of Michigan Chaos evokes images of the dinosaurs running wild in Jurassic Park, or my friend\u2019s toddler ravaging the living room. In a chaotic world, you never know what to expect. Stuff is happening all the time, driven by any kind of random impulse. But chaos has a deeper meaning in connection […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":44,"featured_media":27071,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[3410],"tags":[10620,10616,158,10619,10615,10614,7540,10621,5221,10618,2197,10617,10135,4424,256],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27070"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/44"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=27070"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27070\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":27078,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27070\/revisions\/27078"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/27071"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=27070"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=27070"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=27070"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}