{"id":30783,"date":"2022-08-25T01:06:00","date_gmt":"2022-08-25T01:06:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/?p=30783"},"modified":"2022-08-28T05:17:48","modified_gmt":"2022-08-28T05:17:48","slug":"if-you-thought-this-summers-heat-waves-were-bad-a-new-study-has-some-disturbing-news-about-dangerous-heat-in-the-future","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/if-you-thought-this-summers-heat-waves-were-bad-a-new-study-has-some-disturbing-news-about-dangerous-heat-in-the-future\/","title":{"rendered":"If you thought this summer\u2019s heat waves were bad, a new study has some disturbing news about dangerous heat in the future"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

David Battisti<\/a>, University of Washington<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

As global temperatures rise, people in the tropics, including places like India and Africa\u2019s Sahel region, will likely face dangerously hot conditions almost daily by the end of the century \u2013 even as the world reduces its greenhouse gas emissions, a new study shows<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The mid-latitudes, including the U.S., will also face increasing risks. There, the number of dangerously hot days, marked by temperatures and humidity high enough to cause heat exhaustion, is projected to double by the 2050s and continue to rise.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the study, scientists looked at population growth, economic development patterns, energy choices and climate models to project how heat index levels \u2013 the combination of heat and humidity \u2013 will change over time. We asked University of Washington atmospheric scientist David Battisti<\/a>, a co-author of the study, published Aug. 25, 2022, to explain the findings and what they mean for humans around the world.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

What does the new study tell us about heat waves in the future, and importantly the impact on people?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

There are two sources of uncertainty when it comes to future temperature. One is how much carbon dioxide humans are going to emit \u2013 that depends on things like population, energy choices and how much the economy grows. The other is how much warming those greenhouse gas emissions will cause.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In both, scientists have a really good sense of the likelihood<\/a> of various scenarios<\/a>. For this study, we combined those estimates to get a likelihood in the future of having dangerous and life-threatening temperatures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We looked at what these \u201cdangerously high\u201d and \u201cextremely dangerous\u201d levels on the heat index<\/a> would mean for daily life in both the tropics and in the mid-latitudes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cDangerous\u201d in this case refers to the likelihood of heat exhaustion<\/a>. Heat exhaustion won\u2019t kill you if you\u2019re able to stop and slow down \u2013 it\u2019s characterized by<\/a> fatigue, nausea, a slowed heartbeat, possibly fainting. But you really can\u2019t work under these conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The heat index indicates when a person is likely to reach that threshold. The National Weather Service defines \u201cdangerous<\/a>\u201d as a heat index of 103 F (39.4 C), and \u201cextremely dangerous\u201d as 125 F (51.7 C). If a person gets to \u201cextremely dangerous\u201d temperatures, that can lead to heat stroke<\/a>. At that level, you have a few hours to get medical attention to cool your body down, or you die.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Illustration<\/a>
Signs of heat illness. elenabs via Getty Images<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u201cExtremely dangerous\u201d heat index conditions are almost unheard of today. They happen in a few locations near the Gulf of Oman, for example, for maybe a few days in a decade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But the odds of the number of \u201cdangerous\u201d days are increasing as the planet warms. We\u2019ll likely have about the same weather variability as today, but it\u2019s all happening on top of a higher average temperature. So, the likelihood of extremely hot conditions increases.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What does your study show for each region?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In the mid-latitudes by 2050, we\u2019ll see the number of dangerous heat days double in the most likely future scenario \u2013 even under modest greenhouse gas emissions that would meet the Paris climate agreement<\/a> target of keeping warming under 2 C (3.6 F).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the Southeastern U.S., the most likely scenario is that people will experience a month or two of dangerous heat days every year. The same is likely in parts of China, where some regions have been sweating through a summer 2022 heat wave for over two straight months<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We found that by the end of the century, most places in the mid-latitudes will see a three- to tenfold increase in the number of dangerous days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the tropics, such as parts of India<\/a>, the heat index right now can exceed the dangerous level for a few weeks a year. It\u2019s been like that for the past 20 to 30 years. By 2050, those conditions are likely to occur over several months each year, we found. And by the end of the century, many places will see those conditions most of the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What that means in practice is if you\u2019re a rich country like the U.S., most people can afford or find air conditioning. But if you\u2019re in the tropics, where about half the world\u2019s population lives and poverty is higher, the heat is a more serious problem for a good part of the year. And a large percentage of people there work outside in agriculture.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Maps
The average number of days with dangerous heat index levels in 1979-1998 and the study\u2019s median projections for 2050 and 2100. Zeppetello, Raftery & Battisti, 2022<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

As we get toward the end of the century, we\u2019ll start exceeding \u201cextremely dangerous\u201d conditions in several places, primarily in the tropics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Northern India could see over a month per year in extremely dangerous conditions. Africa\u2019s Sahel region<\/a>, where poverty is widespread, could see a few weeks of extremely dangerous conditions per year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Can humans adapt to what sounds like a dystopian future?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

If you\u2019re a rich country, you can build cooling facilities and generate electricity to run air conditioners \u2013 hopefully they won\u2019t be powered with fossil fuels, which would further warm the planet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If you\u2019re a developing country, a very large fraction of people work outdoors in agriculture to earn money to buy food. There, if you think about it, there aren\u2019t a lot of options.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Migrant workers in the U.S. also face more difficult conditions<\/a>. A farm might be able to provide cooling facilities, but farmers\u2019 margins are pretty small and migrant workers are often paid by volume, so when they aren\u2019t picking, they aren\u2019t paid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Eventually, conditions will get to the point that more workers are overheating and dying.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Farm
U.S. farmworkers take a break from picking melons on a July 2021 week when temperatures were expected to pass 110 F. AP Photo\/Terry Chea<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The heat will be a problem for crops, too. We expect most of the major grains to be less productive<\/a> in the future because of heat stress. In the mid-latitudes right now, we\u2019re close to optimal temperatures for growing grains. But as temperatures increase, grain yield goes down. In the tropics, that could be anywhere between a 10% to 15% reduction<\/a> per degree Celsius increase. That\u2019s a pretty big hit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What can be done to avoid these risks?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Part of our work in this study was determining the odds that the world will actually meet the Paris agreement. We found that to be around 0.1%. Basically, it\u2019s not going to happen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the century, we found the most likely scenario is that the planet will see 5.4 F (3 C) of warming globally compared to pre-industrial times. Land warms faster than ocean, so that translates to about a 7 F (3.9 C) increase for places where we live, work and play \u2013 and you can get a sense of the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The faster renewable energy comes online and fossil fuel use is shut down, the better the chances of avoiding that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

David Battisti<\/a>, Professor of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This article is republished from The Conversation<\/a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

David Battisti, University of Washington As global temperatures rise, people in the tropics, including places like India and Africa\u2019s Sahel region, will likely face dangerously hot conditions almost daily by the end of the century \u2013 even as the world reduces its greenhouse gas emissions, a new study shows. The mid-latitudes, including the U.S., will […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":44,"featured_media":30784,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1862],"tags":[139,2615,12380,271,11798,8255,12241,2904,4701],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30783"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/44"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30783"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30783\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":30798,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30783\/revisions\/30798"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/30784"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30783"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30783"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30783"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}