{"id":32002,"date":"2022-11-25T16:55:00","date_gmt":"2022-11-25T16:55:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/?p=32002"},"modified":"2022-11-27T05:41:56","modified_gmt":"2022-11-27T05:41:56","slug":"after-cop27-all-signs-point-to-world-blowing-past-the-1-5-degrees-global-warming-limit-heres-what-we-can-still-do-about-it","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/after-cop27-all-signs-point-to-world-blowing-past-the-1-5-degrees-global-warming-limit-heres-what-we-can-still-do-about-it\/","title":{"rendered":"After COP27, all signs point to world blowing past the 1.5 degrees global warming limit \u2013 here\u2019s what we can still do about\u00a0it"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/peter-schlosser-1280762\">Peter Schlosser<\/a>, <em><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/arizona-state-university-730\">Arizona State University<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The world could still, theoretically, meet its goal of keeping global warming <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/sr15\/\">under 1.5 degrees Celsius<\/a>, a level many scientists <a href=\"https:\/\/climate.nasa.gov\/news\/2865\/a-degree-of-concern-why-global-temperatures-matter\/\">consider a dangerous threshold<\/a>. Realistically, that\u2019s unlikely to happen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Part of the problem was evident at <a href=\"https:\/\/cop27.eg\/#\/\">COP27<\/a>, the United Nations climate conference in Egypt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While nations\u2019 climate negotiators were successfully fighting to \u201ckeep 1.5 alive\u201d as the global goal in the <a href=\"https:\/\/unfccc.int\/cop27\/auv\">official agreement<\/a>, reached Nov. 20, 2022, some of their countries were negotiating <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2022\/6\/11\/tanzania-signs-natural-gas-deal-with-equinor-and-shell\">new fossil fuel deals<\/a>, driven in part by the global energy crisis. Any expansion of fossil fuels \u2013 the primary driver of climate change \u2013 makes keeping warming under 1.5 C (2.7 Fahrenheit) compared to pre-industrial times much harder.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Attempts at the climate talks to get all countries to agree to phase out coal, oil, natural gas and all fossil fuel subsidies failed. And countries have done <a href=\"https:\/\/www.unep.org\/resources\/emissions-gap-report-2022\">little to strengthen their commitments<\/a> to cut greenhouse gas emissions in the past year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-datawrapper wp-block-embed-datawrapper\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" title=\"How global energy supply changed from 1971 to 2019\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/cMxZJ\/1\/#?secret=HK4zRmx6Td\" data-secret=\"HK4zRmx6Td\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"188\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>There have been positive moves, including <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/these-machines-scrub-greenhouse-gases-from-the-air-an-inventor-of-direct-air-capture-technology-shows-how-it-works-172306\">advances in technology<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/ourworldindata.org\/grapher\/levelized-cost-of-energy\">falling prices for renewable energy<\/a> and countries committing to <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/why-fixing-methane-leaks-from-the-oil-and-gas-industry-can-be-a-climate-game-changer-one-that-pays-for-itself-194346\">cut their methane emissions<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But all signs now point toward a scenario in which the world will <a href=\"https:\/\/news.un.org\/en\/story\/2022\/10\/1129912\">overshoot the 1.5 C limit<\/a>, likely by a large amount. The World Meteorological Organization estimates global temperatures have a <a href=\"https:\/\/public.wmo.int\/en\/media\/press-release\/wmo-update-5050-chance-of-global-temperature-temporarily-reaching-15%C2%B0c-threshold\">50-50 chance of reaching 1.5C<\/a> of warming, at least temporarily, in the next five years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That doesn\u2019t mean humanity can just give up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2>Why 1.5 degrees?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>During the last quarter of the 20th century, <a href=\"https:\/\/climate.nasa.gov\/causes\/\">climate change due to human activities<\/a> became an issue of survival for the future of life on the planet. Since at least the 1980s, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/science.1103618\">scientific evidence for global warming has been increasingly firm <\/a>, and scientists have established limits of global warming that cannot be exceeded to avoid moving from a global climate crisis to a planetary-scale climate catastrophe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/sr15\/chapter\/chapter-3\/\">consensus<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/sr15\/chapter\/chapter-3\/\">among climate scientists<\/a>, myself included, that 1.5 C of global warming is a threshold beyond which humankind would dangerously interfere with the climate system. https:\/\/ourworldindata.org\/grapher\/temperature-anomaly?time=earliest..latest<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We know from the reconstruction of historical climate records that, over the past 12,000 years, life was able to thrive on Earth at a global annual average temperature of around 14 C (57 F). As one would expect from the behavior of a complex system, the temperatures varied, but they never warmed by more than about 1.5 C during this <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/the-pre-holocene-climate-is-returning-and-it-wont-be-fun-27742\">relatively stable climate regime<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Today, with the world <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/report\/ar6\/wg1\/\">1.2 C warmer<\/a> than pre-industrial times, people are <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/report\/ar6\/wg2\/\">already experiencing the effects<\/a> of climate change in more locations, more forms and at higher frequencies and amplitudes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Climate model projections clearly show that <a href=\"https:\/\/scied.ucar.edu\/learning-zone\/climate-change-impacts\/predictions-future-global-climate\">warming beyond<\/a> 1.5 C will <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/report\/ar6\/wg2\/\">dramatically increase the risk<\/a> of extreme weather events, more frequent wildfires with higher intensity, sea level rise, and changes in flood and drought patterns with implications for food systems collapse, among other adverse impacts. And there can be <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1126\/science.abn7950\">abrupt transitions<\/a>, the impacts of which will result in major challenges on local to global scales. https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/MR6-sgRqW0k?wmode=transparent&amp;start=0 Tipping points: Warmer ocean water is contributing to the collapse of the Thwaites Glacier, a major contributor to sea level rise with global consequences.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2>Steep reductions and negative emissions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Meeting the 1.5 goal at this point will <a href=\"https:\/\/unfccc.int\/news\/cut-global-emissions-by-76-percent-every-year-for-next-decade-to-meet-15degc-paris-target-un-report\">require steep reductions<\/a> in carbon dioxide emissions, but that alone isn\u2019t enough. It will <a href=\"https:\/\/unfccc.int\/sites\/default\/files\/resource\/28_EASAC%20Report%20on%20Negative%20Emission%20Technologies.pdf\">also require \u201cnegative emissions\u201d<\/a> to reduce the concentration of carbon dioxide that human activities have already put into the atmosphere.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Carbon dioxide lingers in the atmosphere for decades to centuries, so just stopping emissions doesn\u2019t stop its warming effect. Technology exists that can pull carbon dioxide out of the air and lock it away. It\u2019s still only operating at a very small scale, but corporate agreements like <a href=\"https:\/\/climeworks.com\/news\/climeworks-extends-collaboration-with-microsoft\">Microsoft\u2019s 10-year commitment to pay for carbon removed<\/a> could help scale it up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A report in 2018 by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change determined that meeting the 1.5 C goal <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/2018\/10\/08\/summary-for-policymakers-of-ipcc-special-report-on-global-warming-of-1-5c-approved-by-governments\/\">would require cutting<\/a> carbon dioxide emissions by 50% globally by 2030 \u2013 plus significant <a href=\"https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/explainer-10-ways-negative-emissions-could-slow-climate-change\/\">negative emissions<\/a> from both technology and natural sources by 2050 up to about half of present-day emissions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img src=\"https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/496592\/original\/file-20221121-12-v2vf3q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip\" alt=\"\"\/><figcaption>A direct air capture project in Iceland stores captured carbon dioxide underground in basalt formations, where chemical reactions mineralize it. <a href=\"https:\/\/climeworks.com\/news\/climeworks-launches-orca\">Climeworks<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2>Can we still hold warming to 1.5 C?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Since the <a href=\"https:\/\/unfccc.int\/process-and-meetings\/the-paris-agreement\/the-paris-agreement\">Paris climate agreement<\/a> was signed in 2015, countries have made some progress in their <a href=\"https:\/\/www.unep.org\/resources\/emissions-gap-report-2022\">pledges to reduce emissions<\/a>, but at a pace that is way too slow to keep warming below 1.5 C. Carbon dioxide <a href=\"https:\/\/ourworldindata.org\/grapher\/annual-co-emissions-by-region\">emissions are still rising<\/a>, as are carbon dioxide <a href=\"https:\/\/keelingcurve.ucsd.edu\/\">concentrations in the atmosphere<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A recent report by the United Nations Environment Program <a href=\"https:\/\/www.unep.org\/resources\/emissions-gap-report-2022\">highlights the shortfalls<\/a>. The world is on track to produce 58 gigatons of carbon dioxide-equivalent greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 \u2013 more than twice where it should be for the path to 1.5 C. The result would be an average global temperature increase of 2.7 C (4.9 F) in this century, nearly double the 1.5 C target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Given the gap between countries\u2019 actual commitments and the emissions cuts required to keep temperatures to 1.5 C, it appears <a href=\"https:\/\/climateactiontracker.org\/global\/temperatures\/\">practically impossible<\/a> to stay within the 1.5 C goal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Global emissions aren\u2019t close to plateauing, and with the amount of carbon dioxide already in the atmosphere, it is very likely that the world will reach the 1.5 C warming level <a href=\"https:\/\/www.unep.org\/resources\/emissions-gap-report-2022\">within the next five to 10 years<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><a href=\"https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/496584\/original\/file-20221121-20-3rz8zx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip\"><img src=\"https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/496584\/original\/file-20221121-20-3rz8zx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip\" alt=\"\"\/><\/a><figcaption>With current policies and pledges, the world will far exceed the 1.5 C goal. <a href=\"https:\/\/climateactiontracker.org\/global\/temperatures\/\">Climate Action Tracker<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>How large the overshoot will be and for how long it will exist critically hinges on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/2018\/10\/08\/summary-for-policymakers-of-ipcc-special-report-on-global-warming-of-1-5c-approved-by-governments\/\">accelerating emissions cuts and scaling up<\/a> negative emissions solutions, including carbon capture technology.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At this point, nothing short of an extraordinary and unprecedented effort to cut emissions will save the 1.5 C goal. We <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/2022\/04\/04\/ipcc-ar6-wgiii-pressrelease\/\">know what can be done<\/a> \u2013 the question is whether people are ready for a radical and immediate change of the actions that lead to climate change, primarily a transformation away from a fossil fuel-based energy system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/peter-schlosser-1280762\">Peter Schlosser<\/a>, Vice President and Vice Provost of the Julie Ann Wrigley Global Futures Laboratory, <em><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/arizona-state-university-730\">Arizona State University<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This article is republished from <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\">The Conversation<\/a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/after-cop27-all-signs-point-to-world-blowing-past-the-1-5-degrees-global-warming-limit-heres-what-we-can-still-do-about-it-195080\">original article<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Peter Schlosser, Arizona State University The world could still, theoretically, meet its goal of keeping global warming under 1.5 degrees Celsius, a level many scientists consider a dangerous threshold. Realistically, that\u2019s unlikely to happen. Part of the problem was evident at COP27, the United Nations climate conference in Egypt. While nations\u2019 climate negotiators were successfully [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":44,"featured_media":32003,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1862,4],"tags":[12988,139,6957,1683,12932,4629,4688,271,12987,12989,4232,235,2323,12930,2872],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32002"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/44"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=32002"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32002\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":32015,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32002\/revisions\/32015"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/32003"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=32002"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=32002"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=32002"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}