{"id":32236,"date":"2022-12-11T22:16:00","date_gmt":"2022-12-11T22:16:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/?p=32236"},"modified":"2022-12-13T15:34:01","modified_gmt":"2022-12-13T15:34:01","slug":"whats-really-driving-climate-gentrification-in-miami-it-isnt-fear-of-sea-level-rise","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/whats-really-driving-climate-gentrification-in-miami-it-isnt-fear-of-sea-level-rise\/","title":{"rendered":"What\u2019s really driving \u2018climate gentrification\u2019 in Miami? It isn\u2019t fear of sea-level\u00a0rise"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Richard Grant<\/a>, University of Miami<\/a><\/em> and Han Li<\/a>, University of Miami<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Miami\u2019s Little Haiti has been an immigrant community for decades. Its streets are lined with small homes and colorful shops that cater to the neighborhood, a predominantly Afro-Caribbean population with a median household income well below Miami\u2019s<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But Little Haiti\u2019s character may be changing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A $1 billion real estate development<\/a> called the Magic City Innovation District is planned in the neighborhood, with luxury high-rise apartments<\/a>, high-end shops and glass office towers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Little Haiti\u2019s streets have been lined with murals and mom-and-pop shops for generations, but that\u2019s changing. Joe Raedle\/Getty Images<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The developers emphasize their commitment to sustainability<\/a>. But high-end real estate investments like this raise property values, pushing up property taxes and the cost of living for surrounding neighborhoods.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The potential effect on shops and homeowners and on the culture of the community has stoked controversy<\/a> and protests. Nearby strip malls<\/a> have been bought up for new development, leaving long-time businesses with fewer affordable options. Other big developments<\/a> are now being planned.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some media<\/a> and urban scholars have labeled what\u2019s happening here \u201cclimate gentrification<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s the idea that investors and homebuyers are changing their behavior and moving from coastal areas into poorer, higher-elevation neighborhoods like Little Haiti, which sits on a ridge less than a mile from the bay, in anticipation of worsening climate change risks, such as sea-level rise. Miami is often held up as an example.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But are Miami\u2019s investors and homebuyers really motivated by climate change?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A different kind of gentrification<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The story goes that Miami homebuyers are abandoning the coasts \u2013 where high tides can already bring street flooding in some areas \u2013 and are looking for higher-elevation areas because they want to escape climate change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That isn\u2019t what we\u2019re finding, though.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Yale\u2019s Climate Opinion Survey<\/a> of Miami-Dade County in 2021, only half of Miami residents said they believe global warming will harm them personally \u2013 far lower than the 70% who said that in Delaware and the 90% in Canada, Western Europe and Japan<\/a>. Another survey found 40%<\/a> of Miami-Dade residents weren\u2019t concerned about the impact climate change might have on the market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a new study, our team at the University of Miami found a more nuanced picture<\/a> of what is actually pushing homeowners to higher ground.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For the most part, we found that the shift away from the coasts is fueled by costs. Flood risk plays a role through the rising cost of flood insurance, but much of the shift is plain old gentrification \u2013 developers looking for cheaper land and spinning it as a more sustainable choice to win over public officials and future residents.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rather than bottom-up pressure built on residents\u2019 alarm about sea-level rise, we found a continuation of the usual rational investment decisions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Developers are driving the process<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Present-day \u201cclimate gentrification\u201d in Miami is largely determined and driven by capitalist investment opportunities<\/a> \u2013 relatively lower prices and greater expected returns \u2013 which are the characteristics of the traditional gentrification process.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We found that neither homebuyers nor real estate agents are driving this process today in Miami. Rather, developers are using the concept of climate risk to market properties<\/a> in more elevated areas and are working in tandem with policymakers to facilitate urban redevelopment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Miami is very different from other global cities, in that its wealthy homebuyers and second-home buyers exhibit fewer concerns about rising sea levels and climate change. A large percentage of Miami homebuyers \u2013 about 13% in 2021<\/a> \u2013 don\u2019t live in the U.S. and may evaluate risk differently<\/a>, seeing Miami properties as safer investments than they have at home or as future second homes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Miami\u2019s gentrification also isn\u2019t limited to higher-elevation neighborhoods. In coastal areas such as Miami Beach<\/a>, taxes and housing and rental prices are rising, and poorer people are being pushed out of neighborhoods. Miami\u2019s average rent is now over $2,800 a month<\/a>, up 16% from October 2021 to October 2022. That\u2019s about $800 higher than the U.S. average, and it rose at nearly twice the national rate over the past year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Coastal homebuyers should be more concerned<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Climate change is without question a risk for Miami. The insurance industry warns that sea-level rise<\/a> and moderate flooding of up to 1 foot will affect 48% of total properties in oceanfront Miami-Dade County by 2050.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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