{"id":33285,"date":"2023-03-16T04:13:00","date_gmt":"2023-03-16T04:13:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/?p=33285"},"modified":"2023-03-17T04:17:25","modified_gmt":"2023-03-17T04:17:25","slug":"is-the-western-drought-finally-ending-that-depends-on-where-you-look","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/is-the-western-drought-finally-ending-that-depends-on-where-you-look\/","title":{"rendered":"Is the Western drought finally ending? That depends on where you\u00a0look"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Dan McEvoy<\/a>, Desert Research Institute<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

After three years of extreme drought, the Western U.S. is finally getting a break. Mountain ranges are covered in deep snow<\/a>, and water reservoirs in many areas are filling up<\/a> following a series of atmospheric rivers<\/a> that brought record rain and snowfall to large parts of the region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Many people are looking at the snow and water levels and asking: Is the drought finally over?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is a lot of nuance to the answer. Where you are in the West and how you define \u201cdrought\u201d make a difference. As a drought and water researcher<\/a> at the Desert Research Institute\u2019s<\/a> Western Regional Climate Center, here\u2019s what I\u2019m seeing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How fast each region recovers will vary<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The winter of 2023 has made a big dent in improving the drought and potentially eliminating the water shortage problems of the last few summers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I say \u201cpotentially\u201d because in many areas, a lot of the impacts of drought tend to show up in summer<\/a>, once the winter rain and snow stop and the West starts relying on reservoirs and streams for water. Spring heat waves<\/a> like the ones we saw in 2021 or rain in the mountains<\/a> could melt the snowpack faster than normal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"A
Atmospheric rivers in January brought heavy rain across large parts of the West. Another powerful storm system hit in March. Climate.gov<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

California and the Great Basin<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In California, the state\u2019s three-year precipitation deficit was just about erased by the atmospheric rivers<\/a> that caused so much flooding in December and January. By early March, the snowpack across the Sierra Nevada was well above the historical averages<\/a> \u2013 and more than 200% of average in some areas. The Metropolitan Water District of Southern California announced it was ending emergency water restrictions<\/a> for nearly 7 million people on March 15.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It seems as though most of the surface water drought \u2013 drought involving streams and reservoirs \u2013 could be eliminated by summer in California and the Great Basin, across Nevada and western Utah.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Two
The early 2023 storms likely could have filled Lake Oroville, one of California\u2019s largest reservoirs. But reservoirs are also essential for flood management, so managers balance how much water to retain and how much to release. NASA Earth Observatory images by Lauren Dauphin<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

But that\u2019s only surface water. Drought also affects groundwater, and those effects will take longer to alleviate<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Studies in California have shown that, even after wet years like 2017 and 2019, the groundwater systems did not fully recover<\/a> from the previous drought, in part because of years of overpumping groundwater for agriculture, and the aquifers were not fully recharging<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In that sense, the drought is not over. But at the broader scale for the region, a lot of the drought impacts that people experience will be lessened or almost gone by this summer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Colorado River Basin<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Similar to the Sierra Nevada, the Upper Colorado River Basin \u2013 Wyoming, Colorado, Utah and northwestern New Mexico \u2013 has a healthy snowpack this year, and it\u2019s looking like a very good water year there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Map<\/a>
The snow water equivalent, a measure of snowpack, was over 200% of average in several areas on March 14, 2023. Drought.gov<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

But one single good water year is not going to fill Lake Mead<\/a> and Lake Powell<\/a>. Most of the region relies on those two reservoirs, which have declined to worrying levels<\/a> over the past two decades. NOAA\u2019s seasonal drought outlook<\/a> released on March 16 noted that both remained low.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Two good water years won\u2019t do it either. Over the next decade, most years will have to be above average to begin to fill those giant reservoirs. Rising temperatures and drying<\/a> will make that even harder.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, that system is still going to be dealing with a lot of the same long-term drought impacts that it has been seeing. The reservoirs will likely rise some, but nowhere close to capacity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Pacific Northwest<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Pacific Northwest isn\u2019t having as much rain and snow, and it\u2019s a little drier there. But it\u2019s close to average<\/a>, so there\u2019s not a huge concern there, at least not right now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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