{"id":34076,"date":"2023-06-10T23:36:00","date_gmt":"2023-06-10T23:36:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/?p=34076"},"modified":"2023-07-02T07:57:01","modified_gmt":"2023-07-02T07:57:01","slug":"el-nino-is-back-thats-good-news-or-bad-news-depending-on-where-you-live","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/el-nino-is-back-thats-good-news-or-bad-news-depending-on-where-you-live\/","title":{"rendered":"El Ni\u00f1o is back \u2013 that\u2019s good news or bad news, depending on where you\u00a0live"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Bob Leamon<\/a>, University of Maryland, Baltimore County<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

El Ni\u00f1o is officially here<\/a>, and while it\u2019s still weak right now, federal forecasters expect this global disrupter of worldwide weather patterns to gradually strengthen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That may sound ominous, but El Ni\u00f1o \u2013 Spanish for \u201cthe little boy\u201d \u2013 is not malevolent, or even automatically bad.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here\u2019s what forecasters expect, and what it means for the U.S.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What is El Ni\u00f1o?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

El Ni\u00f1o is a climate pattern that starts with warm water building up in the tropical Pacific west of South America. This happens every three to seven years or so. It might last a few months or a couple of years<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Normally, the trade winds push warm water away from the coast there, allowing cooler water to surface<\/a>. But when the trade winds weaken<\/a>, water near the equator can heat up, and that can have all kinds of effects through what are known as teleconnections. The ocean is so vast \u2013 covering approximately one-third of the planet, or about 15 times the size of the U.S. \u2013 that those sloshings of warm water have knock-on effects around the globe. https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/_Tuou_QcgxI?wmode=transparent&start=0 The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration explains teleconnections and the impact of El Ni\u00f1o.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That warming at the equator during El Ni\u00f1o leads to the warming of the stratosphere, starting about 6.2 miles (10 kilometers) above the surface. Scientists are still studying how exactly this teleconnection occurs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the lower tropical stratosphere cools.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That combination can shift the upper-level winds known as the jet stream, which blow from west to east. Altering the jet stream can affect all kinds of weather variables, from temperatures to storms and winds that can tear hurricanes apart<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Basically, what happens in the Pacific doesn\u2019t stay in the Pacific.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\nhttps:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/aOiS8\/6\/\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

So, what does all that mean for you and me?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

With apologies to Charles Dickens, El Ni\u00f1o tends to create a tale of two regions: the best of times for some, and the worst of times for others.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On average, El Ni\u00f1o years are warmer globally<\/a> than La Ni\u00f1a years \u2013 El Ni\u00f1o\u2019s opposite. Globally, a strong El Ni\u00f1o can boost temperatures by about 0.7 degrees Fahrenheit (0.4 Celsius). But in North America, there is a lot of local variation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El Ni\u00f1o years tend to be warmer across the northern part of the U.S. and in Canada, and the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley are often drier than usual in the winter and fall. The Southwest, on the other hand, tends to be cooler and wetter than average<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El Ni\u00f1o typically shifts the jet stream farther south, so it blows pretty much due west to east over the southern U.S. That shift tends to block moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, reducing the fuel for thunderstorms in the Southeast. La Ni\u00f1a, conversely, is associated with a more wavy and northward-shifted jet stream, which can enhance severe weather activity in the South and Southeast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"A<\/a>
El Ni\u00f1o\u2019s typical effects in winter. NOAA<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

El Ni\u00f1o also affects hurricanes, but in different ways in the Atlantic and Pacific<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Over the Atlantic, El Ni\u00f1o tends to increase wind shear<\/a> \u2013 the change in wind speed with height in the atmosphere \u2013 which can tear apart hurricanes. But El Ni\u00f1o has the opposite effect in the eastern Pacific, where it can mean more storms. The ocean heat can also raise the risk of marine heat waves<\/a> that can devastate corals and ecosystems fish rely on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the middle of the U.S., El Ni\u00f1o is generally associated with warmer and drier conditions that can mildly increase the chances of a bountiful corn crop<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, El Ni\u00f1o can wreak havoc on crops in Southern Africa<\/a> and Australia<\/a> and increase Australia\u2019s fire risk<\/a> with dangerously dry conditions. Brazil and northern South America also tend to be drier, while parts of Argentina and Chile tend to be wetter<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"A
Australia endured its worst drought in decades in 2005 with the combined effect of increasing temperatures and an El Ni\u00f1o. Ian Waldie\/Getty Images<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Of course, just because this is normally what happens doesn\u2019t mean it happens every time. Witness California\u2019s record rainfalls from multiple atmospheric rivers<\/a> at the end of the last La Ni\u00f1a, which normally would mean dry conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Every weather event is somewhat different, so the influence of El Ni\u00f1o is a matter of probability, not certainty. How El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a will be influenced over time by climate change<\/a> isn\u2019t yet clear.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The forecasts don\u2019t all agree<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Is 2023 going to be a record-breaking year? That\u2019s the multibillion-dollar<\/a> question.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The National Weather Service declares the onset of El Ni\u00f1o when water temperatures are at least 0.9 F (0.5 C) above normal for a three-month period in what\u2019s known as the Ni\u00f1o3.4 region<\/a>. That\u2019s a large imaginary rectangle south of Hawaii along the equator.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"An
Watching El Ni\u00f1o develop in the tropical Pacific, January to June 2023. The box shows the Ni\u00f1o3.4 region. NOAA Climate.gov<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

For a strong El Ni\u00f1o, the Ni\u00f1o3.4 region needs to warm by 2.7 F (1.5 C) for three months. It\u2019s not clear as of right now whether this El Ni\u00f1o will meet that threshold this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration\u2019s first El Ni\u00f1o advisory of the year, released on June 8, sees an 84% chance of El Ni\u00f1o being greater than moderate by winter and a 56% chance that it will be strong.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Those forecasts can change, though, and different forecasting methods<\/a> offer different forecasts of the magnitude<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cDynamical\u201d models, similar to the models used for typical weather forecasts, have projected a very strong El Ni\u00f1o, whereas \u201cstatic\u201d or statistical models are far less optimistic. Personally, I\u2019m a statistical modeler<\/a>, and my own model doesn\u2019t suggest a strong El Ni\u00f1o in 2023. Rather, my model \u2013 like other static models \u2013 predicts that 2023 will fizzle out, and after a couple of quiet, or neutral, years, we will see a strong El Ni\u00f1o in 2026. I did get the recent unusual \u201ctriple dip\u201d La Ni\u00f1a<\/a> right, but I\u2019m willing to be proved wrong by observations, as any good scientist should be.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"A
El Ni\u00f1o often means winter rain for California. While it\u2019s needed, it\u2019s sometimes too much. Watchara Phomicinda\/MediaNews Group\/The Press-Enterprise via Getty Images<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

But no computer model of any flavor has had experience with the globally super-high ocean temperatures that are occurring right now. The Atlantic is unusually warm<\/a>, and that could offset some of the usual forces that come with El Ni\u00f1o.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bob Leamon<\/a>, Associate Research Scientist, University of Maryland, Baltimore County<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This article is republished from The Conversation<\/a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bob Leamon, University of Maryland, Baltimore County El Ni\u00f1o is officially here, and while it\u2019s still weak right now, federal forecasters expect this global disrupter of worldwide weather patterns to gradually strengthen. That may sound ominous, but El Ni\u00f1o \u2013 Spanish for \u201cthe little boy\u201d \u2013 is not malevolent, or even automatically bad. Here\u2019s what […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":44,"featured_media":34079,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[3410],"tags":[6397,170,9952,12603,9789,1128,14201,3023,8197,14202,12636,2800,4179,256],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34076"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/44"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=34076"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34076\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":34309,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34076\/revisions\/34309"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/34079"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=34076"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=34076"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=34076"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}