{"id":34210,"date":"2023-06-25T21:28:00","date_gmt":"2023-06-25T21:28:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/?p=34210"},"modified":"2023-07-02T08:23:00","modified_gmt":"2023-07-02T08:23:00","slug":"wagners-mutiny-punctured-putins-strongman-image-and-exposed-cracks-in-his-rule","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wagners-mutiny-punctured-putins-strongman-image-and-exposed-cracks-in-his-rule\/","title":{"rendered":"Wagner\u2019s mutiny punctured Putin\u2019s \u2018strongman\u2019 image and exposed cracks in his\u00a0rule"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/peter-rutland-393288\">Peter Rutland<\/a>, <em><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/wesleyan-university-1361\">Wesleyan University<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Less than 24 hours after the mutiny began, it was over.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As the rebelling Wagner column <a href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2023\/06\/24\/1184166949\/wagner-group-moscow-halting-march-russia\">bore down on Moscow<\/a>, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.ru\/politics\/24\/06\/2023\/649746e59a79475d3216e36a?from=from_main_1\">brokered a deal<\/a> under which Russian President Vladimir Putin promised to drop criminal charges against the mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin and allow him to seek asylum in Belarus. The departing Wagner <a href=\"https:\/\/meduza.io\/video\/2023\/06\/25\/prigozhin-vyvel-naemnikov-chvk-vagnera-iz-rostova-na-donu\">troops were given<\/a> a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/world-europe-66006860\">heroes\u2019 send-off<\/a> by some residents of Rostov-on-Don \u2013 the southern Russian town they had taken control over without firing a shot earlier in the day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Prigozhin gambled and lost. But he lives to fight another day \u2013 for now at least.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The events of June 24, 2023, had observers searching for the right term to describe what was going on: Was this a coup attempt, a mutiny, an insurrection?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Did Prigozhin seriously think that he would be able to enter Moscow? Perhaps he genuinely believed that Putin would accede to his <a href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2023\/06\/23\/1184090744\/russia-wagner-group-yevgeny-prigozhin-criminal-case\">demand to fire Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu<\/a> and Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov \u2013 two men that the Wagner group head has previously harshly criticized for their conduct of the war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>More radically, Prigozhin may have hoped that he would receive support from elements in the Russian military. Indeed, that seemed to be the case \u2013 his group encountered <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pbs.org\/newshour\/world\/leader-of-wagner-mercenaries-says-forces-entered-russian-city-of-rostov-facing-no-resistance#:%7E:text=Prigozhin%20claimed%20early%20Saturday%20that,'t%20fighting%20against%20children.%E2%80%9D\">no resistance in taking over Rostov-on-Don<\/a> or heading north for some 350 miles (600 kilometers) through Voronezh and Lipetsk provinces \u2013 though they were <a href=\"https:\/\/defence-blog.com\/russian-mercenary-claim-they-have-shot-down-another-military-helicopter\/\">reportedly attacked by a helicopter gunship<\/a>, which they shot down. Prigozhin claimed to command 25,000 troops, though the actual number may be half that figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img src=\"https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/533853\/original\/file-20230625-104821-qa1qtd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip\" alt=\"A smiling man in the back seat of a car.\"\/><figcaption>Head of the Wagner Group Yevgeny Prigozhin leaves Rostov-on-Don. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gettyimages.com\/detail\/news-photo\/head-of-the-wagner-group-yevgeny-prigozhin-left-the-news-photo\/1259027097?adppopup=true\">Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>But while the mutiny was short-lived and its goals unclear, it will have lasting effects \u2013 exposing the fragility of Putin\u2019s grip on power and his ability to lead Russia to victory over Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2>Putin\u2019s impotence<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Prigozhin\u2019s abortive insurrection has punctured the \u201cstrongman\u201d image of Putin, both for world leaders and for ordinary Russians.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He was unable to do anything to stop Prigozhin\u2019s rogue military unit as it seized Rostov-on-Don \u2013 where the Russian Southern Military Command is headquartered \u2013 and then sent a column of armored vehicles up the M4 highway toward Moscow. Putin was forced to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.kommersant.ru\/doc\/6067670?from=spot\">make a televised address<\/a> at 10 a.m. local time on June 24 describing the revolt as a \u201cstab in the back\u201d and calling for harsh punishment of the mutineers. But it was the intervention of Belarus President Lukashenko that brought about an end to the mutiny, not any words or actions from Putin. Somewhat uncharacteristically, both Prigozhin and Putin exercised restraint and stepped back from the brink of civil war by agreeing on the compromise deal that allowed Prigozhin to escape punishment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-datawrapper wp-block-embed-datawrapper\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" title=\"Wagner group&#039;s rebellious march north\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/AThA4\/6\/#?secret=TSQyCXXTG4\" data-secret=\"TSQyCXXTG4\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"588\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Exiled Russian political scientist Kirill Rogov <a href=\"https:\/\/re-russia.net\/en\/analytics\/083\/\">has argued<\/a> that the most challenging development to Russia\u2019s leaders may not be the mutiny itself, but the rhetoric that Prigozhin used to justify his actions. In an <a href=\"https:\/\/news.zerkalo.io\/world\/42087.html\">interview released on social media<\/a> a day before taking control of Rostov-on-Don, Prigozhin argued that the Ukraine war was a mistake from the beginning, launched to benefit the personal interests of Defense Minister Shoigu and an inner circle of oligarchs. Prigozhin brushed aside all the ideological claims Putin has made about the war \u2013 the need to denazify Ukraine, the threat of NATO expansion \u2013 as just cover for self-interest. \u201cOur holy war has turned into a racket,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Prigozhin\u2019s words and actions have exposed the vulnerability of Putin\u2019s grip on power and the hollowness of his ideological framing of the war in Ukraine and Russia\u2019s place in the world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2>Nationalist discontent<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Putin\u2019s constant refrain is that any opposition to his rule \u2013 whether it be from the Kyiv government or from protesters at home \u2013 is part of a <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/russia-ukraine-putin-kyiv-moscow-6ccaef3a9d9d5ccd370d70126db78c5a\">Western plot to weaken Russia<\/a>. It is hard to imagine that his propagandists will be able to argue that Prigozhin is also a tool of the West.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Over the past 10 years, and especially since the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Putin has ruthlessly deployed the coercive apparatus of the state to crush any liberal opposition. At the same time, radical ultra-nationalists \u2013 not only Prigozhin but also the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/world-europe-65179954\">military bloggers and correspondents<\/a> reporting from the war zone \u2013 have been given a relatively free hand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For the most part, they were kept out of state-controlled television broadcasts, but they have reached a wider Russian audience through social media channels such as Telegram, VKontakte and YouTube.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Prigozhin, a former convict who went on to provide catering for the Kremlin before founding the Wagner group, has seen his profile and popularity in Russia rise during the war in Ukraine. In May 2023 polling, he was <a href=\"https:\/\/www.usnews.com\/news\/world-report\/articles\/2023-05-31\/russian-public-support-for-putin-remains-high-despite-concerns-about-ukraine-war-poll\">cited among the top 10 trusted political figures<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It is unclear why Putin was tolerating the nationalists, Prigozhin included, as they increasingly questioned Russia\u2019s war performance. It may be because the Russian president is ideologically aligned with them, or saw them as useful in balancing the power of the generals. Perhaps, also, Putin had come to believe his own propaganda \u2013 that nobody could be more nationalist than Putin himself and that Russia and Putin were one and the same thing \u2013 echoing presidential aide Vyacheslav Volodin\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.kommersant.ru\/doc\/2595599\">2014 comment<\/a>: \u201cNo Putin, no Russia\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Certainly prior to the Wagner mutiny, there were growing winds of discontent among nationalists. On April 1, 2023, one group of prominent bloggers, including <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Igor_Girkin\">Igor Girkin<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Pavel_Gubarev\">Pavel Gubarev<\/a>, announced the formation of a \u201cClub of Angry Patriots.\u201d As Wagner soldiers marched toward Moscow on June 24, the club <a href=\"https:\/\/vk.com\/krprus\">issued a statement<\/a> of indirect support for Prigozhin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Prigozhin might now be in the Belarusian capital, Minsk, where \u2013 theoretically at least \u2013 he can do less damage to Putin. But there are other discontents still in Moscow, and politically active.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Security services in Russia have begun raiding Wagner group offices, but it remains unclear what will happen to Prigozhin\u2019s extensive business operations around the world. Wagner soldiers will be offered the chance to sign contracts with the defense ministry \u2013 if they did not take direct part in the insurrection.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2>A lame-duck president?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Putin has no one to blame but himself for the crisis. Prigozhin\u2019s Wagner group was created with his blessing and promoted by the Russian president. It was a tool that Putin could use to further Russia\u2019s military and economic objectives without direct political or legal accountability \u2013 initially in the Donbas in eastern Ukraine in 2014, then in Syria, Libya and <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/wagner-group-mercenaries-in-africa-why-there-hasnt-been-any-effective-opposition-to-drive-them-out-207318\">elsewhere in Africa<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It was not until July 2022 that Wagner was officially acknowledged to be fighting in the Ukraine war. But over the past six months, they have played an increasingly prominent role and have been rewarded with praise in the Russian media.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But as his prestige grew, so too did Prigozhin\u2019s criticism of those around Putin. Starting in December 2022, he began openly challenging Shoigu. He avoided direct criticism of Putin, though in an expletive-laced tirade on May 9 \u2013 the day Russia commemorates the end of World War II \u2013 he <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/europe\/head-russias-wagner-group-says-still-no-sign-promised-ammunition-2023-05-09\/\">complained about the lack of ammunition<\/a> for Wagner fighters and talked about \u201ca happy asshole Grandfather,\u201d in what has been taken to be a clear reference to Putin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It <a href=\"https:\/\/novayagazeta.eu\/articles\/2023\/06\/24\/putin-konchilsia\">remains a mystery<\/a> why Putin did not move to get rid of Prigozhin before now \u2013 one of the many mysteries of Russian politics over the past century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Prigozhin has inflicted significant damage on his once all-powerful benefactor. Exiled Russian journalist Mikhail Zygar <a href=\"https:\/\/www.newyorker.com\/news\/daily-comment\/vladimir-putins-weakness-unmasked-yevgeny-prigozhins-rebellion\">goes so far as to argue<\/a> that the failed mutiny has exposed Putin as a \u201clame-duck\u201d president; likewise, sociologist Vladislav Inozemtsev <a href=\"https:\/\/novayagazeta.eu\/articles\/2023\/06\/24\/putin-konchilsia\">asserts<\/a> that \u201cPutin is finished.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Such definitive judgments are premature, I feel. Putin is a tough and resilient politician who has faced down the most serious challenge to his authority since he came to power in 2000. But there can be no doubt that the aborted mutiny has exposed profound structural flaws in the Russian system of rule.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/peter-rutland-393288\">Peter Rutland<\/a>, Professor of Government, <em><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/wesleyan-university-1361\">Wesleyan University<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This article is republished from <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\">The Conversation<\/a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/wagners-mutiny-punctured-putins-strongman-image-and-exposed-cracks-in-his-rule-208430\">original article<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Peter Rutland, Wesleyan University Less than 24 hours after the mutiny began, it was over. As the rebelling Wagner column bore down on Moscow, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko brokered a deal under which Russian President Vladimir Putin promised to drop criminal charges against the mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin and allow him to seek asylum in [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":44,"featured_media":34211,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[4],"tags":[10835,14285,14284,1125,14287,234,2882,949,11411,1212,14286,14288],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34210"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/44"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=34210"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34210\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":34338,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34210\/revisions\/34338"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/34211"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=34210"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=34210"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=34210"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}