{"id":34528,"date":"2023-07-14T22:59:00","date_gmt":"2023-07-14T22:59:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/?p=34528"},"modified":"2023-07-15T16:33:22","modified_gmt":"2023-07-15T16:33:22","slug":"what-this-years-el-nino-means-for-wheat-and-global-food-supply","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/what-this-years-el-nino-means-for-wheat-and-global-food-supply\/","title":{"rendered":"What this year\u2019s El Ni\u00f1o means for wheat and global food\u00a0supply"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

David Ubilava<\/a>, University of Sydney<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The World Meteorological Organization has declared the onset of the first El Ni\u00f1o event in seven years. It estimates 90% probability the climatic phenomenon, involving an unusual warming of the Pacific Ocean, will develop through 2023, and be of moderate strength<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El Ni\u00f1o events bring hotter, drier weather to places such as Brazil, Australia<\/a> and Indonesia, increasing the risk of wildfires and drought. Elsewhere, such as Peru and Ecuador, it increases rain, leading to floods.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The effects are sometimes described as a preview of \u201cthe new normal\u201d in the wake of human-forced climate change<\/a>. Of particular concern is the effect on agricultural production, and thereby the price of food \u2013 particularly \u201cbreadbasket\u201d staples such as wheat, maize and rice.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El Ni\u00f1o\u2019s global impacts are complex and multifaceted. It can potentially impact the lives of the majority of the world\u2019s population. This is especially true for poor and rural households, whose fates are intrinsically linked with climate and farming.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The global supply and prices of most food is unlikely to move that much<\/a>. The evidence from the ten El Ni\u00f1o events in the past five decades<\/a> suggests relatively modest, and to some extent ambiguous, global price impacts. While reducing crop yield on average, these events have not resulted in a \u201cperfect storm\u201d of the scale to induce global \u201cbreadbasket yield shocks<\/a>\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But local effects could be severe. Even a \u201cmoderate\u201d El Ni\u00f1o may significantly affect crops grown in geographically concentrated regions \u2014 for example palm oil, which primarily comes from Indonesia and Malaysia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In some places El Ni\u00f1o-induced food availability and affordability issues may well lead to serious social consequences, such as conflict and hunger<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Impact on global food prices<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The following graph shows the correlation between El Ni\u00f1o events and global food prices, as measured by the United Nations\u2019 Food Price Index<\/a>. This index tracks monthly changes in international prices of a basket of food commodities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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