{"id":35116,"date":"2023-10-03T01:09:00","date_gmt":"2023-10-03T01:09:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/?p=35116"},"modified":"2023-10-07T14:22:02","modified_gmt":"2023-10-07T14:22:02","slug":"ev-sales-growth-points-to-oil-demand-peaking-by-2030-%e2%88%92-so-why-is-the-oil-industry-doubling-down-on-production","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/ev-sales-growth-points-to-oil-demand-peaking-by-2030-%e2%88%92-so-why-is-the-oil-industry-doubling-down-on-production\/","title":{"rendered":"EV sales growth points to oil demand peaking by 2030 \u2212 so why is the oil industry doubling down on\u00a0production?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Robert Brecha<\/a>, University of Dayton<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Electric vehicle sales are growing faster than expected around the world, and sales of gas- and diesel-powered vehicles have been falling. Yet, the U.S. government still forecasts an increasing demand for oil, and the oil industry is doubling down on production plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why is that, and what happens if the U.S. projections for growing oil demand are wrong?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I study sustainability<\/a> and global energy system transformations<\/a>. Let\u2019s take a closer look at the changes underway.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EVs\u2019 giant leap forward<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On Sept. 12, 2023, Fatih Birol, director of the International Energy Agency<\/a>, an intergovernmental organization that advises the world\u2019s major economies, drew global attention when he wrote in the Financial Times that the IEA is now projecting a global peak<\/a> in demand for oil, gas and coal by 2030.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The new date was a significant leap forward in time compared with previous estimates that the peak would not be until the 2030s<\/a> for oil and even later for gas. It also stood out because the IEA has typically been quite conservative in modeling changes to the global energy system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Birol pointed to changes in energy policies<\/a> and a faster-than-expected rise in clean technologies \u2013 including electric vehicles \u2013 along with Europe\u2019s shift away from fossil fuels<\/a> amid Russia\u2019s war in Ukraine as the primary reasons. He wrote that the IEA\u2019s upcoming World Energy Outlook \u201cshows the world is on the cusp of a historic turning point.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"People
EV sales have been growing quickly, particularly in China. China\u2019s BYD produces several of the top-selling models globally. VCG\/VCG via Getty Images<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The United Nations also released its \u201cglobal stocktake<\/a>\u201d report in early September, assessing the world\u2019s progress toward meeting the Paris climate agreement goals of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) compared with preindustrial temperatures. The report found serious gaps<\/a> in efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to net-zero by soon after mid-century<\/a>. However, it noted two bright spots: The world is more or less on track in the growth in solar photovoltaics<\/a> for renewable energy \u2013 and in the growth of electric vehicles<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The dynamics of EV expansion are important because each vehicle that uses electricity instead of gasoline or diesel fuel will depress demand for oil. Even though demand for petroleum products in other sectors, like aviation and petrochemicals, is still increasing, the IEA expects a decline in road transportation\u2019s 50% share of oil consumption to drive an overall peak in demand within a few years<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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