{"id":37508,"date":"2024-09-23T13:15:00","date_gmt":"2024-09-23T13:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/?p=37508"},"modified":"2024-10-13T18:41:15","modified_gmt":"2024-10-13T18:41:15","slug":"gun-violence-in-philadelphia-plummeted-in-2024-%e2%88%92-researchers-arent-sure-why-but-here-are-3-factors-at-play","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/gun-violence-in-philadelphia-plummeted-in-2024-%e2%88%92-researchers-arent-sure-why-but-here-are-3-factors-at-play\/","title":{"rendered":"Gun violence in Philadelphia plummeted in 2024 \u2212 researchers aren\u2019t sure why, but here are 3 factors at&nbsp;play"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/carla-lewandowski-1550947\">Carla Lewandowski<\/a>, <em><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/rowan-university-3458\">Rowan University<\/a><\/em> and <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/john-a-shjarback-1150912\">John A. Shjarback<\/a>, <em><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/rowan-university-3458\">Rowan University<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Philadelphia experienced a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.doi.org\/10.1016\/j.ypmed.2022.107241\">surge in shootings and homicides<\/a> during the COVID-19 years that disproportionately affected <a href=\"http:\/\/www.doi.org\/10.1001\/jamanetworkopen.2022.48132\">young Black<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.jcrimjus.2023.102103\">Latino men<\/a> in <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0263777\">economically disadvantaged neighborhoods<\/a> with drug markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In 2020, Philadelphia had 499 homicides \u2013 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.phillypolice.com\/crimestats\">nearly 150 more<\/a> than the previous year. Gun violence worsened in 2021 \u2013 with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.phillypolice.com\/crimestats\">562 homicides<\/a> that year \u2013 and then dropped slightly in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Fortunately, recent data shows a notable decline in these crimes over the past two years. As of late September 2024, homicides are down <a href=\"https:\/\/www.phillypolice.com\/crimestats\">40% for the year to date compared with 2023<\/a>. And the <a href=\"https:\/\/opendataphilly.org\/datasets\/shooting-victims\/\">number of shooting victims<\/a> has decreased similarly \u2013 from 1,236 in the first eight months of 2023 to 758 for the same period in 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As <a href=\"https:\/\/scholar.google.com\/citations?user=KG_gnAgAAAAJ&amp;hl=en&amp;oi=ao\">professors<\/a> of <a href=\"https:\/\/scholar.google.com\/citations?user=CdcU--oAAAAJ&amp;hl=en&amp;oi=ao\">criminal justice<\/a> who live in Greater Philadelphia, we know that there is no single explanation for the drop in gun violence. Rather, many factors at both the local and national levels could be playing a role.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-datawrapper wp-block-embed-datawrapper\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" title=\"Philadelphia&#039;s dramatic spike and dip in gun violence\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/dwJbC\/3\/#?secret=es8UUwC1kK\" data-secret=\"es8UUwC1kK\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"456\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2>Police and justice system return to (sort of) normalcy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>A shortage of police \u2013 driven by <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.21428\/cb6ab371.4a588631\">pandemic-era resignations<\/a>, retirements and injuries \u2013 significantly affected cities like Philadelphia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Additionally, the Philadelphia Police Department\u2019s number of traffic and pedestrian stops dropped drastically. This was due to both the need to adhere to social distancing guidelines during the <a href=\"https:\/\/billypenn.com\/2020\/03\/17\/philly-police-to-halt-narcotics-arrests-other-charges-during-covid-outbreak\/\">COVID-19 pandemic<\/a> and a <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1093\/police\/paad091\">widespread reluctance among officers<\/a> to engage with citizens after massive protests in response to the murder of George Floyd. In fact, the number of documented stops <a href=\"https:\/\/data.phila.gov\/visualizations\/vehicle-pedestrian-investigations\">plummeted by 83%<\/a> from 2019 to 2020 alone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img src=\"https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/619978\/original\/file-20240917-16-dkut4s.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip\" alt=\"Uniformed police officers stand beside a patrol car under an elevated train\"\/><figcaption>Philadelphia police staffing remains nearly 20% lower than before the pandemic. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gettyimages.com\/detail\/news-photo\/police-patrol-ahead-of-a-clearing-of-a-homeless-encampment-news-photo\/2152064085\">Spencer Platt\/Getty Images News via Getty Images<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>As the year progressed, the department struggled with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.inquirer.com\/news\/a\/philadelphia-police-injury-claims-heart-lung-abuse-20220201.html\">officers\u2019 abuse of the Pennsylvania Heart and Lung Act<\/a>. This <a href=\"https:\/\/www.legis.state.pa.us\/cfdocs\/Legis\/LI\/uconsCheck.cfm?txtType=HTM&amp;yr=1935&amp;sessInd=0&amp;smthLwInd=0&amp;act=0193.\">statewide disability program<\/a> allows police and firefighters injured on the job to collect their full salaries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>By September 2021, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.inquirer.com\/news\/philadelphia-police-injury-claims-heart-lung-abuse-reform-20221220.html\">14% of Philadelphia patrol officers<\/a> were out of work on \u201cno duty\u201d disability leave, according to investigations by both <a href=\"https:\/\/www.inquirer.com\/news\/a\/philadelphia-police-injury-claims-heart-lung-abuse-20220201.html\">The Philadelphia Inquirer<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/controller.phila.gov\/philadelphia-audits\/ppd-review\/\">the city controller<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Though up-to-date data is unavailable, there was a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.inquirer.com\/news\/philadelphia-police-injury-claims-heart-lung-abuse-reform-20221220.html\">31% drop in injury claims<\/a> by December 2022, 10 months after the Inquirer investigation was published.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>More recently, the Philadelphia Police Department has attempted to increase its ranks through <a href=\"https:\/\/whyy.org\/articles\/philadelphia-police-department-kicks-off-efforts-to-recruit-more-officers\/\">intensified recruitment efforts<\/a>. It also <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/philadelphia-police-hiring-crisis-nationwide-b4da67b472d43d734968bca04c0b98cd\">lowered physical requirements<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/whyy.org\/articles\/philadelphia-police-department-kicks-off-efforts-to-recruit-more-officers\/\">eliminated certain residency restrictions<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite these efforts, staffing remains <a href=\"https:\/\/controller.phila.gov\/public-safety-staffing-down-almost-19-from-pre-pandemic-levels\/\">nearly 20% lower than in 2019<\/a>. This places considerable strain on the existing workforce.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Of course, the COVID-19 years <a href=\"https:\/\/data.philadao.com\/COVID19_Report.html\">considerably affected the entire criminal justice system<\/a> and beyond in Philadelphia. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.inquirer.com\/news\/courts-reopening-jury-trials-philadelphia-suburbs-south-jersey-20210531.html\">Courts operated in a limited capacity<\/a>, cases backlogged, probation and parole officers were less able to supervise individuals in the community, and the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.inquirer.com\/opinion\/editorials\/philadelphia-jails-violence-prisons-release-20210706.html\">jail population was reduced<\/a>. The city\u2019s array of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nlc.org\/resource\/reimagining-public-safety-impact-updates\/philadelphia-pa-group-violence-intervention\/\">community-<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nlc.org\/resource\/reimagining-public-safety-impact-updates\/philadelphia-pa-hospital-based-violence-intervention\/\">hospital-based<\/a> violence intervention programs were also disrupted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The post-pandemic resumption of court operations, improved violence intervention programs, police recruitment efforts and reduced disability claims may help explain the recent drop in shootings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-datawrapper wp-block-embed-datawrapper\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" title=\"Police stops plummeted when the pandemic began\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/ssWOB\/1\/#?secret=cp6OGzeeWb\" data-secret=\"cp6OGzeeWb\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"456\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2>New leadership and crime-fighting strategies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Reducing gun violence was a <a href=\"https:\/\/whyy.org\/articles\/philadelphia-mayoral-race-2023-gun-violence-prevention\/\">top campaign issue<\/a> during Philadelphia\u2019s 2023 mayoral race.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mayor Cherelle Parker, <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/philadelphia-mayor-crime-parker-democrats-29841c89da2f624bc747d54ec409bac9\">elected on a law-and-order platform<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/6abc.com\/new-philadelphia-mayor-cherelle-parker-action-plan-crime\/14264633\/\">declared a public safety emergency<\/a> on her first day in office.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>She also <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nbcphiladelphia.com\/news\/local\/kevin-bethel-sworn-in-as-phillys-new-police-commissioner\/3734168\/\">appointed Kevin Bethel<\/a> as police commissioner in charge of the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.phila.gov\/departments\/philadelphia-police-department\/\">more than 6,000-member force<\/a>. Bethel, second in command under former Commissioner Charles Ramsey, quickly <a href=\"https:\/\/www.phila.gov\/documents\/100-day-public-safety-report\/\">released a 100-day plan<\/a> that focused on crime reduction in high-crime districts, shutting down <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/philadelphia-bans-supervised-injection-sites-evidence-suggests-keeping-drug-users-on-the-street-could-do-more-harm-than-good-214439\">open-air drug markets in Kensington<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/philadelphia\/news\/kevin-bethel-philadelphia-crime-rate-kensington\/\">reinforcing federal partnerships<\/a> to tackle violent crime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Philadelphia has also adopted new policing strategies and technologies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In early 2022, before Parker and Bethel\u2019s tenure, the Philadelphia Police Department under former Commissioner Danielle Outlaw designated a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.inquirer.com\/news\/philadelphia-homicides-police-shootings-new-unit-clearance-rate-20220220.html\">new unit to investigate nonfatal shootings<\/a>. In 2021, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/philadelphia\/news\/sources-philadelphia-police-department-non-fatal-shooting-unit-gun-violence-larry-krasner\/\">only 17% of nonfatal shootings led to arrests<\/a>, a failure that can fuel <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1525\/sp.2003.50.2.157\">retaliatory violence<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.2307\/827739\">legal cynicism<\/a> \u2013 which refers to a drop in trust of the legal system \u2013 and communities resorting to <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1111\/j.1745-9125.2007.00084.x\">self-policing<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While it\u2019s not yet clear what effect the new unit has had in Philadelphia, research shows such units that prioritize resources to solving nonfatal shootings in places such as <a href=\"https:\/\/manhattan.institute\/article\/improving-police-clearance-rates-of-shootings-a-review-of-the-evidence\">Boston<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.denverpost.com\/2020\/11\/13\/nonfatal-shootings-denver\/\">Denver<\/a> have reduced gun violence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>More recently, the city began deploying <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nbcphiladelphia.com\/news\/local\/mobile-surge-team-philadelphia-police-crackdown-crime-crowds-car-meetups-gun-violence\/3784656\/\">mobile surge teams<\/a> on weekends to flood high-crime areas with officers to deter potential criminal activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Meanwhile, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.inquirer.com\/education\/temple-university-campus-safety-20240903.html\">Temple University attributes<\/a> the reduction in crime within its patrol areas to the implementation of safety measures, including new equipment for officers such as firearms and radios, upgraded security cameras and advanced technology such as license plate readers, which help identify stolen vehicles or those linked to criminal behavior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img src=\"https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/619979\/original\/file-20240917-22-9ozju7.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip\" alt=\"Police officer in uniform speaks at podium to people holding microphones\"\/><figcaption>Philadelphia Police Commissioner Kevin Bethel has prioritized reducing gun violence in high-crime neighborhoods. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gettyimages.com\/detail\/news-photo\/philadelphia-police-commissioner-kevin-bethel-speaks-to-the-news-photo\/2147038107\">Ryan Collerd\/AFP via Getty Images<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2>National crime trends<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>While local initiatives have likely contributed to Philadelphia\u2019s drop in violent crime, these improvements also fit into <a href=\"https:\/\/jasher.substack.com\/p\/gun-violence-has-mostly-returned\">national crime trends<\/a> as cities across the U.S. <a href=\"https:\/\/counciloncj.org\/homicide-trends-report\/\">experienced similar declines<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Economics and public safety expert John Roman, for example, <a href=\"https:\/\/johnkroman.substack.com\/p\/why-violence-spiked-in-2020-in-one\">attributes both the rise<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/johnkroman.substack.com\/p\/why-did-crime-decline-in-2023\">fall of violence<\/a> to pandemic-related losses in government staffing and functionality, which he argues returned to prepandemic levels in late 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Roman shows how <a href=\"https:\/\/johnkroman.substack.com\/p\/why-violence-spiked-in-2020-in-one\">1.3 million<\/a> government jobs were lost nationally at the outset of COVID-19, with <a href=\"https:\/\/johnkroman.substack.com\/p\/why-did-crime-decline-in-2023\">75% of the losses<\/a> coming at the local level. These local government employees, such as social and outreach workers, often connect people in marginalized communities that bear the brunt of gun violence to crucial services such as trauma counseling, victim advocacy and legal assistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In Philadelphia, <a href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/series\/SMU42979619093000001A#0\">approximately 3,000 local government jobs<\/a> were lost between 2019 and 2022. The reopening of social services and increase in those jobs and community-based interventions post-pandemic may have helped stabilize Philadelphia\u2019s neighborhoods.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nbcnews.com\/news\/us-news\/violent-crime-decreases-pre-pandemic-levels-according-fbi-rcna120757\">Crime trends tend to ebb and flow<\/a>. This current drop appears to align with a national de-escalation in violent crime. These factors, alongside the statistical phenomenon of <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1093\/ije\/dyh299\">regression to the mean<\/a> \u2013 where crime rates normalize after extreme spikes \u2013 apply to both national and local crime rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Some researchers, <a href=\"https:\/\/johnkroman.substack.com\/p\/unpacking-the-decline-in-firearm\">including Roman<\/a>, have also considered the possibility that the recent 2020-2022 homicide peak killed a portion of the most violent offenders who drive shootings in their neighborhood. It\u2019s based on the concept of the <a href=\"https:\/\/nij.ojp.gov\/topics\/articles\/overlap-between-those-committing-offenses-who-also-are-victims-one-class-crime\">victim-offender overlap<\/a> that those at the highest risk of violence are often offenders themselves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But crediting Philadelphia\u2019s decline in homicides and violent crime to any single cause oversimplifies a much more intricate picture. While the exact causes of these shifts are complex, understanding the interplay of local and national forces is essential to sustaining this positive trajectory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/carla-lewandowski-1550947\">Carla Lewandowski<\/a>, Associate Professor of Criminal Justice, <em><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/rowan-university-3458\">Rowan University<\/a><\/em> and <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/john-a-shjarback-1150912\">John A. Shjarback<\/a>, Associate Professor of Criminal Justice, <em><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/rowan-university-3458\">Rowan University<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This article is republished from <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\">The Conversation<\/a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/gun-violence-in-philadelphia-plummeted-in-2024-researchers-arent-sure-why-but-here-are-3-factors-at-play-235485\">original article<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Carla Lewandowski, Rowan University and John A. Shjarback, Rowan University Philadelphia experienced a surge in shootings and homicides during the COVID-19 years that disproportionately affected young Black and Latino men in economically disadvantaged neighborhoods with drug markets. In 2020, Philadelphia had 499 homicides \u2013 nearly 150 more than the previous year. Gun violence worsened in [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":44,"featured_media":37509,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[8025,295,296,4,38],"tags":[198,2174,4038,372,7636,885,891,886,860,4222],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37508"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/44"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=37508"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37508\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":37602,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37508\/revisions\/37602"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/37509"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=37508"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=37508"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=37508"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}