{"id":3783,"date":"2015-06-11T06:45:46","date_gmt":"2015-06-11T06:45:46","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/?p=3783"},"modified":"2016-08-25T03:23:59","modified_gmt":"2016-08-25T03:23:59","slug":"new-solar-storm-forecasting-technique-breaks-the-24-hour-warning-barrier-for-earth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/new-solar-storm-forecasting-technique-breaks-the-24-hour-warning-barrier-for-earth\/","title":{"rendered":"New solar storm forecasting technique breaks the 24-hour warning barrier for Earth"},"content":{"rendered":"

Neel Savani<\/a>, University of Maryland, Baltimore County<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

Solar storms start their lives as violent explosions from the sun\u2019s surface. They\u2019re made up of energetic charged particles wrapped in a complex magnetic cloud. As they erupt from the sun\u2019s surface, they can shoot out into interplanetary space at speeds of up to 3,000 kilometers per second (that\u2019s 6.7 million miles per hour). Depending on their direction of travel, these energetic storms can journey past Earth and other planets.<\/p>\n

If a solar storm makes it to Earth, it can disrupt a variety of modern technologies including GPS and high-frequency communications, and even power grids on the ground, causing radio blackouts and citywide loss of power. It can also wreak havoc within the aviation industry<\/a> by disrupting communication methods.<\/p>\n

To combat related potential economic losses<\/a>, affected industries have been seeking a solution that can provide them with at least 24 hours of warning. With enough lead time, they can safely change their operational procedures. For example, passenger planes can be rerouted or power grid transformers can begin the slow process of \u201cwinding down,\u201d all of which require at least a day\u2019s notice \u2013 a huge jump beyond the 60-minute advance warning<\/a> currently common. By building on earlier research, my colleagues and I have come up with a technique we think can meet that 24-hour warning goal.<\/p>\n

A false alarm issued on January 7 2014 about an unusually large coronal mass ejection underscored the scope of the forecast problem.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Magnetic fields dictate solar storm severity<\/h2>\n

The strength with which a storm can affect our everyday technological infrastructure depends largely on the orientation of its magnetic field. Often the magnetic field within a solar storm has a helical structure<\/a>, twisted like a corkscrew. But, much like tornadoes on Earth, these solar storms undergo significant changes during their evolution \u2013 in this case, as they leave the sun and travel toward the planets.<\/p>\n

NASA\u2019s Magnetospheric Multiscale mission investigates magnetic reconnection.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

With a specific field orientation, the floodgates open, allowing the solar particles to enter the otherwise protective bubble of Earth\u2019s atmosphere (the magnetosphere). This interaction between the solar material and Earth\u2019s magnetosphere is predominately driven by a process of joining each other\u2019s magnetic fields together. This interaction is called magnetic reconnection.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>
North and south attract and combine.<\/span>
\nGeek3<\/a>, CC BY-SA<\/a><\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

This realignment of the field works in a similar way as two bar magnets attracting. If similar poles of each magnet<\/a> (north and north) are brought together, the field lines repel each other. Unlike poles attract and combine together. If the poles are unlike, in our case between the solar storm and the Earth\u2019s magnetosphere, they become magnetically connected. This new connectivity of the Earth\u2019s magnetosphere now contains the trapped energetic particles that were previously isolated in the solar storm. If a large penetration of energetic particles makes it into the Earth\u2019s upper atmosphere, the reaction provides the visual extravaganza that\u2019s often called the Northern Lights.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>
Solar plasma hitting the Earth\u2019s magnetosphere lights up the sky over Antarctica.<\/span>
\nNASA\/Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio<\/a>, CC BY<\/a><\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

In search of: advance forecast<\/h2>\n

To date, predicting the magnetic field structure within solar storms hitting Earth has remained elusive. Modern forecasting centers around the world, such as at NOAA<\/a> and UK Met Office<\/a>, are dependent on direct measurements from inside the solar storm by a spacecraft just in front of Earth (for example, the newly launched Discvr satellite<\/a> by NOAA). Measurements tell us the direction of a solar storm\u2019s magnetic field and thus whether it\u2019s liable to reconnect with the Earth\u2019s magnetosphere in a dangerous way for our technology. We\u2019ve been stuck with less than 60 minutes of advance warning.<\/p>\n

The difficulties in creating a reliable forecast have centered around our inability to reliably estimate the initial structure of the storm above the sun\u2019s surface, and the difficulty in observing how storms evolve as they spend about two days traveling to Earth.<\/p>\n

My colleagues and I recently published an article<\/a> in Space Weather that proposes an improved method for predicting the initial magnetic structure of a solar storm. Getting a better handle on the origin of these solar storms is a substantial step toward predicting how the storm can affect us on Earth, and to what extent.<\/p>\n

Our method relies on correctly modifying a previous discovery<\/a> about how the motions of solar plasma (of mostly hydrogen ions) and magnetic field hidden below the sun\u2019s surface can affect the initial structure of a solar storm. It\u2019s called the solar dynamo<\/a> process. This is a physical process that is believed to generate the sun\u2019s magnetic field. It\u2019s the engine and energy source driving all observed solar activity \u2013 that includes sunspots and long-term solar variability as well as solar storms.<\/p>\n

Exploded view of a solar storm flaring out from the sun.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

We think combining this modified initial storm model with a new method that incorporates a storm\u2019s early evolutionary stages will lead to significant improvements to our forecasting predictions. Triangulating the entire solar storm by using cameras at three locations from NASA\u2019s STEREO<\/a> and SOHO<\/a> spacecraft in interplanetary space, using modern modeling techniques we\u2019ve developed, enables a more robust prediction system. Since these cameras are located at very different vantage points in space, we can use them in conjunction to improve our estimations of the total shape and location of the solar storm \u2013 much like the depth of field we achieve by seeing the world through two eyes.<\/p>\n

Predictions matching reality<\/h2>\n

So far, we\u2019ve tested this new predictive technique on eight different solar storms, with the first forecasts showing significant agreement with the real data. Further advanced statistical testing with a larger number of storms is now under way within NASA Goddard\u2019s Community Coordinated Modeling Center<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>
A burst of solar material erupts out into space. Where\u2019s it headed?<\/span>
\nNASA\/Goddard\/SDO<\/a>, CC BY<\/a><\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\u201cWe\u2019ll test the model against a variety of historical events,\u201d said Antti Pulkkinen<\/a>, director of Space Weather Research Center at NASA Goddard and a coauthor of the publication. \u201cWe\u2019ll also see how well it works on any event we witness over the next year. In the end, we\u2019ll be able to provide concrete information about how reliable a prediction tool it is.\u201d<\/p>\n

We\u2019re working toward improving the user interface and implementation into current systems<\/a>. Once proven reliable and statistically significant for forecasting, our technique may soon become a regular operational tool used by the forecasters at Space Weather Prediction Center at NOAA<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\"The<\/p>\n

Neel Savani<\/a> is Research Faculty in Space Weather at University of Maryland, Baltimore County<\/a>.<\/p>\n

This article was originally published on The Conversation<\/a>.
\nRead the original article<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Neel Savani, University of Maryland, Baltimore County Solar storms start their lives as violent explosions from the sun\u2019s surface. They\u2019re made up of energetic charged particles wrapped in a complex magnetic cloud. As they erupt from the sun\u2019s surface, they can shoot out into interplanetary space at speeds of up to 3,000 kilometers per second […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40,"featured_media":7284,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[118],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3783"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/40"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3783"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3783\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7285,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3783\/revisions\/7285"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/7284"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3783"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3783"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3783"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}