{"id":37920,"date":"2024-10-23T13:45:00","date_gmt":"2024-10-23T13:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/?p=37920"},"modified":"2024-10-27T17:18:51","modified_gmt":"2024-10-27T17:18:51","slug":"north-carolina-is-not-really-a-red-or-blue-state-%e2%88%92-and-that-makes-political-predictions-much-more-difficult","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/north-carolina-is-not-really-a-red-or-blue-state-%e2%88%92-and-that-makes-political-predictions-much-more-difficult\/","title":{"rendered":"North Carolina is not really a red or blue state \u2212 and that makes political predictions much more difficult"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Christopher A. Cooper<\/a>, Western Carolina University<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

For all its prominence as a key battleground state<\/a>, North Carolina hasn\u2019t done much swinging<\/a> in U.S. presidential elections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The last time a majority of North Carolinians voted for a Democratic candidate was 2008 for Barack Obama. The time before that<\/a> was 1976 for Jimmy Carter. In the past 12 presidential elections, Republicans have won 10. Those Republicans include Donald Trump in 2016 and 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But as I demonstrate in my 2024 book, \u201cAnatomy of a Purple State: A North Carolina Politics Primer<\/a>,\u201d simply looking at the outcome of presidential voting gives a skewed understanding of voting behavior in other elections across the state.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Consider 2020 again. While it is true that Trump won North Carolina\u2019s 15 electoral college votes \u2013 it now has 16, based on 2020 U.S Census Bureau data \u2014 his margin of victory<\/a> was only about 74,000 votes out of some 5.4 million votes cast. It was the smallest margin of any state that Trump won.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Part of the reason is the nearly even split among voters in the two major parties and the emergence of registered voters who claim they are unaffiliated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As of September 2024, North Carolina had 7.6 million registered voters. Of these, the largest group at 38% were registered as unaffiliated<\/a>, followed by registered Democrats<\/a> at 32% and registered Republicans<\/a> at 30%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite being considered a red state, North Carolina\u2019s congressional delegation<\/a> is split evenly between Democrats and Republicans with seven each. In addition, four of the state\u2019s 10 statewide, elected Council of State officeholders, including Gov. Roy Cooper<\/a>, are Democrats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In no other Southern state does a single elected Democrat<\/a> hold a similar statewide seat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Though both of North Carolina\u2019s U.S. senators are Republicans and the GOP holds supermajorities in both houses of the state Legislature, North Carolina is not entirely red or blue. It is undeniably purple \u2013 and that gives rise to further uncertainty over how the state will vote in the 2024 presidential election.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Kamala Harris factor<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Before U.S. President Joe Biden dropped out of the race in July 2024, polls showed that he lagged behind<\/a> Trump by 5 percentage points in North Carolina.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As in many other battleground states, it appeared that Trump had a small but fairly durable lead over Biden.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"A
Vice President Kamala Harris campaigns in Greenville, N.C., on Oct. 13, 2024. Alex Wong\/Getty Images<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

But soon after Vice President Kamala Harris became the Democratic nominee, several national polls<\/a> showed Harris had an immediate bump and closed the gap<\/a> \u2013 in some polls actually taking a lead. Trump has since regained a slight lead \u2013 less than a percentage point<\/a> \u2013 in one October 2024<\/a> poll.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But Harris\u2019 impact wasn\u2019t just on national polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For the first time in years, Democratic Party registration began to exceed<\/a> Republican Party registration in the state.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From July 20-26, 2,351 people<\/a> registered as Democrats in North Carolina \u2013 a 44% increase compared with the previous week. During the same period, Republican and unaffiliated voter registrations were down 23% and 14%, respectively, from the previous week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The rise and fall of Mark Robinson<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In spring 2024, during the height of primary season, Trump stepped into the North Carolina gubernatorial race by endorsing Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, a Black Republican with a history of derogatory comments<\/a> about Muslims and members of the LGBTQ community.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThis is a Martin Luther King on steroids,\u201d Trump said of Robinson during a rally<\/a> in Greensboro, North Carolina, on March 2, 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given Trump\u2019s two wins in the state, his endorsement was expected to help Robinson beat Democrat Josh Stein in one of the nation\u2019s most competitive<\/a> state elections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But Trump\u2019s enthusiasm all but vanished after a series of negative stories about Robinson. They included a Sept. 19, 2024, CNN report alleging<\/a> that Robinson frequented a porn web site called \u201cNude Africa\u201d years ago where he described himself as a \u201cBlack Nazi.\u201d Robinson also allegedly made a number of misogynistic and racist statements such as \u201cslavery is not bad.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robinson denied the allegations<\/a> and called the CNN report \u201csalacious tabloid lies.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump made another campaign stop in Wilmington on Sept. 21, 2024. Robinson, who had frequently appeared with Trump at previous North Carolina rallies, was not on the stage<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Polling conducted after CNN\u2019s bombshell report showed an election that had shifted from competitive to one where the Democrat Stein is favored by a large margin<\/a> to become North Carolina\u2019s governor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is unclear whether Robinson\u2019s apparent demise will affect the top of the ticket \u2013 or other state GOP candidates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Natural disasters<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Hurricane Helene hit western North Carolina<\/a> on Sept. 28 and brought high winds, flooding, an estimated US$47 billion in property damages and 250 deaths<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It also caused questions about access to voting in areas devastated by Helene and then, two weeks later, Hurricane Milton<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"A
A woman in North Carolina places an American flag near a mobile home that was destroyed in October 2024 by Hurricane Helene. Mario Tama\/Getty Images<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Twenty-nine counties in North Carolina were affected by the storm, although 13 counties received the brunt of the damage<\/a>. Analysis of data from the North Carolina Board of Elections reveals that Trump led Biden by about a 10 percentage-point margin among voters in those affected counties.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given this, lower turnout in this region might hurt Trump more than Harris. It\u2019s little surprise then that the Trump campaign<\/a> has called for expanding voting access in those areas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But there\u2019s no way to know who will receive North Carolina\u2019s 16 Electoral College votes. Such is the unpredictable politics of a purple state.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Christopher A. Cooper<\/a>, Professor of Political Science & Public Affairs, Western Carolina University<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This article is republished from The Conversation<\/a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Christopher A. Cooper, Western Carolina University For all its prominence as a key battleground state, North Carolina hasn\u2019t done much swinging in U.S. presidential elections. The last time a majority of North Carolinians voted for a Democratic candidate was 2008 for Barack Obama. The time before that was 1976 for Jimmy Carter. In the past […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":44,"featured_media":37922,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[8025,296,4],"tags":[13922,479,7319,885,891,886,860,15649],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37920"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/44"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=37920"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37920\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":37961,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37920\/revisions\/37961"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/37922"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=37920"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=37920"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=37920"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}