{"id":38141,"date":"2024-11-16T13:45:00","date_gmt":"2024-11-16T13:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/?p=38141"},"modified":"2024-11-17T07:33:30","modified_gmt":"2024-11-17T07:33:30","slug":"indonesia-presidents-diplomatic-dash-takes-in-china-and-us-%e2%88%92-but-a-trump-presidency-may-see-the-aspiring-regional-powerhouse-tilt-more-toward-beijing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/indonesia-presidents-diplomatic-dash-takes-in-china-and-us-%e2%88%92-but-a-trump-presidency-may-see-the-aspiring-regional-powerhouse-tilt-more-toward-beijing\/","title":{"rendered":"Indonesia president\u2019s diplomatic dash takes in China and US \u2212 but a Trump presidency may see the aspiring regional powerhouse tilt more toward Beijing"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Angguntari Ceria Sari<\/a>, Universitas Katolik Parahyangan<\/a><\/em> and Idil Syawfi<\/a>, Universitas Katolik Parahyangan<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s been a whirlwind week for Indonesian president Prabowo Subianto. On Nov. 9, he was breaking bread with Chinese leader Xi Jinping<\/a>; three days later he was sitting down with President Joe Biden in the White House<\/a>. In between, Subianto found time to reach out to Donald Trump<\/a> to congratulate the incoming U.S. president on his election victory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The visits to the U.S. and China form part of a two-week overseas tour<\/a> for Subianto that will also take him to Peru, Brazil and the U.K., as well as several Middle East countries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The itinerary hints at the diplomatic priorities of the newly seated president of Southeast Asia\u2019s biggest economy: balancing Indonesia\u2019s relations with key members of both the West and the Global South<\/a>, while seeking a more assertive leadership role in Southeast Asia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Indonesia\u2019s balancing act<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Subianto\u2019s back-to-back meetings with Xi and Biden highlight the role Indonesia tries to play in ensuring regional stability and security in the Indo-Pacific.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The meetings coincided with an ongoing U.S.-Indonesian marine exercise<\/a> off the Indonesian island of Batam. The third annual military exercise of its kind, such maneuvers between U.S. and Southeast Asian partners have tended in the past to be framed as a countermeasure<\/a> to China\u2019s assertiveness in the contested waters of the South China Sea. But while U.S. and Indonesian marines were engaged in drills, Subianto and Xi were making nice \u2013 pledging greater maritime cooperation<\/a> between the two countries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The big question now is how a Trump White House will affect Indonesia\u2019s balancing act on security in the Indo-Pacific region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump\u2019s Indo-Pacific strategy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Trump\u2019s first presidency offers some clues into what his second term may look like regarding its Indo-Pacific policy. The 2019 Indo-Pacific Strategy Report<\/a> issued by the Trump administration marked China as a \u201crevisionist\u201d power<\/a> \u2013 that is, one that is dissatisfied with the current status quo \u2013 and an aspiring regional hegemon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To counter this, Trump adopted an \u201coffshore balancing<\/a>\u201d strategy \u2013 in effect utilizing regional allies to keep China in check. This approach involved security pacts with traditional allies and joint military training exercises with countries such as the Philippines and Indonesia. It also included providing military equipment to partners in the region and occasional U.S. Navy \u201cfreedom of navigation\u201d operations<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"A
China\u2019s nine-dash line takes in territory claimed by other nations.. AP Photo\/Andy Wong<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

But there was another side to Trump\u2019s Indo-Pacific strategy. Aware of the U.S.\u2019s lack of direct<\/a> security interests in the region \u2013 no U.S. territories are threatened \u2013 but concerned that any escalation could lead to military conflict, Trump was willing to back down on<\/a> potential flash points with China in the South China Sea in exchange for Beijing\u2019s cooperation<\/a> in confronting one of the region\u2019s key threats to stability: North Korea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These two policy tweaks under Trump\u2019s first administration \u2013 easing pressure on Beijing in the South China Sea while outsourcing regional stability to Washington\u2019s Indo-Pacific allies \u2013 handed to Indonesia a challenge and opportunity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Southeast Asia\u2019s largest and most populous nation, Indonesia was required to show leadership in the negotiation of the code of conduct<\/a> in the South China Sea as part of its key diplomatic mission to maintain regional stability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Subianto tilts toward China<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Indonesia has long been willing to shoulder the burden of managing regional security. Successive leaders have taken the role seriously, especially given the country\u2019s constitutional mandate to pursue an \u201cindependent and active\u201d foreign policy<\/a>. Historically, this has meant Indonesian leaders avoiding being too close to either the U.S. or China in order to boost their credibility as an independent actor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Two
Chinese President Xi Jinping, right, shakes hands with Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto. Xie Huanchi\/Xinhua via Getty Images<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

But since Subianto was inaugurated as the president of Indonesia in October 2024, Indonesia\u2019s foreign policy has shown a nascent shift away from the West. Days after his inauguration, Subianto sent his new foreign minister to Kazan, Russia, to attend the meeting of BRICS nations and express Indonesia\u2019s desire to join the expanding<\/a> bloc of non-Western economies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

BRICS\u2019s largest member is China<\/a>, and the group seeks to position itself as an alternative to Western security and financial architecture<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This formal expression of intent to join BRICS marks a change<\/a> from policy under Subianto\u2019s predecessor, Joko Widodo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Furthermore, a joint statement<\/a> issued during Subianto\u2019s visit to Beijing suggests that Indonesia is starting to entertain Beijing historical maritime claims<\/a> in the South China Sea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For decades, Indonesia refused to acknowledge Beijing\u2019s claims on rocks and atolls within Indonesia\u2019s exclusive economic zone in the waters around Natuna \u2013 an Indonesian island that intersects with China\u2019s \u201cnine-dash line\u201d denoting the area Beijing sees as Chinese.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But the joint statement<\/a> issued during Subianto\u2019s visit to Beijing stated that the two countries had reached \u201can important common understanding on joint development in areas of overlapping claims\u201d that was consistent with \u201crespective prevailing laws and regulations.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Talk of \u201coverlapping claims\u201d is a departure for Indonesia and suggests that Subianto is willing to move closer to accepting the boundaries set by Beijing in the South China Sea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

OECD or BRICS? Or both?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This isn\u2019t to say that Indonesia is cutting off its options for greater cooperation with the West, too. During the White House leg of Subianto\u2019s visit, Biden signaled the U.S.\u2019s strong support<\/a> for Indonesia\u2019s push to join the Western-dominated Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

OECD<\/a> membership would serves as a benchmarking platform for Indonesia, with the organization<\/a> setting international standards and support for Indonesia to help attract better quality foreign investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

BRICS membership, meanwhile, would represent more of a political and economic move that would place Indonesia alongside other countries seeking an alternative to the U.S.-dominated international institutions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The impetus for Indonesia to join could only deepen should Trump\u2019s plan to slap heavy tariffs<\/a> on overseas goods come to fruition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Providing cover for Subianto<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Certainly, it appears that Indonesia under Subianto could develop a more pro-Beijing stance in the face of a Trump White House.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wars in Ukraine and the Middle East are likely to take up much of Trump\u2019s immediate attention, pushing issues such as security in Southeast Asia \u2013 and more generally in the Indo-Pacific region \u2013 further down the list.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the Chinese government shows no signs of deviating from a policy that includes incremental moves to control the South China Sea and exert its economic influence<\/a> on nations in Southeast Asia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Already, some observers are questioning whether Indonesia\u2019s shift in how disputed territory in the South China Sea is discussed is tied to economic cooperation<\/a> with China that includes the US$10 billion worth of deals signed during Subianto\u2019s Beijing visit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And a more insular, anti-interventionalist White House under Trump could give Subianto cover to forge Indonesia\u2019s path as a regional leader, encouraging it to do so while also developing closer economic and strategic ties to China and the Global South.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Angguntari Ceria Sari<\/a>, Lecturer in International Relations, Universitas Katolik Parahyangan<\/a><\/em> and Idil Syawfi<\/a>, Assistant Professor of International relations, Universitas Katolik Parahyangan<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This article is republished from The Conversation<\/a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Angguntari Ceria Sari, Universitas Katolik Parahyangan and Idil Syawfi, Universitas Katolik Parahyangan It\u2019s been a whirlwind week for Indonesian president Prabowo Subianto. On Nov. 9, he was breaking bread with Chinese leader Xi Jinping; three days later he was sitting down with President Joe Biden in the White House. In between, Subianto found time to […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":56,"featured_media":38142,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[5,8025,115,277,296,4,38],"tags":[479,1983,6083,885,891,886,860,15751],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38141"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/56"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=38141"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38141\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":38143,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38141\/revisions\/38143"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/38142"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=38141"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=38141"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=38141"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}