{"id":38154,"date":"2024-11-19T20:45:00","date_gmt":"2024-11-19T20:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/?p=38154"},"modified":"2024-11-20T06:25:27","modified_gmt":"2024-11-20T06:25:27","slug":"trumps-agenda-will-face-hurdles-in-congress-despite-the-republican-trifecta-of-winning-the-house-senate-and-white-house","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/trumps-agenda-will-face-hurdles-in-congress-despite-the-republican-trifecta-of-winning-the-house-senate-and-white-house\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump\u2019s agenda will face hurdles in Congress, despite the Republican \u2018trifecta\u2019 of winning the House, Senate and White House"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Charlie Hunt<\/a>, Boise State University<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Beginning in January 2025, Republicans in Washington will achieve what\u2019s commonly known as a governing \u201ctrifecta<\/a>\u201d: control over the executive branch via the president, combined with majorities for their party in both the House and the Senate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

You might think that a trifecta, which is also referred to as \u201cunified government\u201d by political scientists, is a clear recipe<\/a> for legislative success. In theory, when political parties have unified control over the House, the Senate and the presidency, there should be less conflict between them. Because these politicians are part of the same political party and have the same broad goals, it seems like they should be able to get their agenda approved, and the opposing minority party can do little to stop them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But not all trifectas are created equal, and not all are dominant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Research<\/a> shows<\/a> that political gridlock can still happen even under a unified government for reasons that are likely to be on full display when Republicans assume leadership of Congress and the presidency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Two
With a slim majority, will GOP House Speaker Mike Johnson, left, be able to pass Donald Trump\u2019s priorities? Andrew Harnik\/Getty Images<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Majority size matters<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A unified government will make President Donald Trump\u2019s ability to enact his agenda much easier than if, for example, Democrats controlled the U.S. House, as they did during the second half of his first term<\/a>, from 2021-2022. But tight margins in both congressional chambers mean that, even with a trifecta, it won\u2019t be a cakewalk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump will be the sixth consecutive president with a trifecta<\/a> on Day 1 of his presidency. But history \u2013 and simple math \u2013 show that presidents with trifectas have an easier time passing partisan legislation with bigger majorities. Bigger majorities mean majority-party defections<\/a> won\u2019t easily sink controversial or partisan legislation. A bigger majority also means that individual members of Congress from either party have less leverage they can use to water down the president\u2019s policy requests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump also held a trifecta during the beginning of his first term in office; in particular, a big Republican majority in the House, which passed major legislation<\/a> with relative ease and put pressure on their Senate colleagues to comply. Trump signed a major tax reform package<\/a> in 2017 that was the signature legislative achievement of his first term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But Trump will have a much smaller advantage when he takes office for the second time. Every president since Bill Clinton has entered office with a trifecta, but Trump\u2019s seat advantage in the House on Day 1 will be the smallest of all of them after all the votes are counted. Trump\u2019s relatively small advantage in the Senate also may put in jeopardy his already controversial proposed cabinet nominations<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Majority party troubles<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In addition to the nearly guaranteed opposition from Democrats in Congress, Trump and other Republican leaders can expect continuing internal divisions within their own party.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a closely divided House or Senate, there are plenty of tools that Democrats, even as the minority party, can use to stymie Trump\u2019s agenda. This most notably includes the filibuster<\/a>, which would force Republicans to garner 60 votes for any nonbudgetary legislation Trump might wish to pass. But even dominant legislative trifectas, again like the one former President Barack Obama enjoyed when he took office in 2009<\/a>, can\u2019t prevent divisions within political parties, as different politicians jockey for control of the party\u2019s agenda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite entering office with a 17-vote advantage in the Senate, Obama\u2019s signature legislative achievement \u2013 the Affordable Care Act<\/a>, also sometimes known as Obamacare \u2013 had to be watered down significantly<\/a> to win a simple majority after backlash from conservative Democrats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Obama\u2019s trifecta was bigger in size; but in a polarized America, a large majority also means an ideologically diverse one.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If Republican infighting in the most recent Congress<\/a> repeats itself, Trump is likely to face similar pushback from members of his own party in his second term. For the past two years, the Republican-led House has been repeatedly riven by leadership struggles<\/a> and an often aimless<\/a> legislative agenda, thanks to a lack of cooperation from the the party\u2019s far-right flank.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This group of lawmakers will largely remain in the next Congress and will be large enough to stall any party-line vote that Speaker Mike Johnson hopes to pass. The potential for continued chaos \u2013 especially with a passable legislative agenda on the line \u2013 is monumental. If the past is any indication<\/a>, even a task as fundamental as passing a budget could be challenging, much less major reform to policy areas such as immigration<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Competing pressures<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite Congress\u2019 reputation as a polarized partisan body, members of Congress ultimately serve multiple masters. The Republican divisions in the current Congress reflect the competing pressures of national party leaders in Washington and the local politics of each member\u2019s district, which often cut against what party leaders want.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For example, some Republicans represent heavily Republican districts and will be happy to go along with Trump\u2019s agenda, regardless of how extreme it is. Others represent districts won by President Joe Biden<\/a> in 2020 and might be more inclined to moderate their positions to keep their seats in 2026 and beyond.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump has also made life difficult for himself by using Congress, as many incoming administrations do, as a hiring pool<\/a> for his incoming administration. He\u2019s said he would nominate three Republican House members<\/a> elected for the next Congress to high-level posts in his administration, knocking Johnson\u2019s seat advantage down to the low single digits.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Charlie Hunt<\/a>, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Boise State University<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This article is republished from The Conversation<\/a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Charlie Hunt, Boise State University Beginning in January 2025, Republicans in Washington will achieve what\u2019s commonly known as a governing \u201ctrifecta\u201d: control over the executive branch via the president, combined with majorities for their party in both the House and the Senate. You might think that a trifecta, which is also referred to as \u201cunified […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":56,"featured_media":38155,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[5,46,295,25,4],"tags":[13922,2069,479,15758,15759,885,891,886,860,2133],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38154"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/56"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=38154"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38154\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":38156,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38154\/revisions\/38156"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/38155"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=38154"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=38154"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=38154"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}