{"id":39443,"date":"2025-05-09T11:45:00","date_gmt":"2025-05-09T11:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/?p=39443"},"modified":"2025-05-09T06:41:29","modified_gmt":"2025-05-09T06:41:29","slug":"missile-strikes-and-drone-attacks-heighten-south-asian-crisis-8-questions-answered-over-the-role-of-pakistans-military-in-responding","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/missile-strikes-and-drone-attacks-heighten-south-asian-crisis-8-questions-answered-over-the-role-of-pakistans-military-in-responding\/","title":{"rendered":"Missile strikes and drone attacks heighten South Asian crisis &#8211; 8 questions answered over the role of Pakistan\u2019s military in&nbsp;responding"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/ayesha-jalal-1335124\">Ayesha Jalal<\/a>, <em><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/tufts-university-1024\">Tufts University<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Pakistan\u2019s government <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hindustantimes.com\/india-news\/pakistan-reserved-the-right-to-respond-at-a-time-place-manner-of-its-choosing-101746640975435.html\">has pledged to respond<\/a> \u201cat a time, place and manner of its choosing\u201d following an air attack from India that killed 31 people in Pakistan on May 6, 2025.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>The missile strike comes at a time of increased tension between the two South Asian neighbors following a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2025\/04\/22\/asia\/gunmen-open-fire-jammu-kashmir-intl\/index.html\">terror attack in Indian-controlled Kashmir<\/a> on April 22 that resulted in the deaths of 26 Indian tourists.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>India blamed the assault on its neighbor although has <a href=\"https:\/\/www.lowyinstitute.org\/the-interpreter\/kashmir-why-was-india-so-quick-blame-pakistan\">yet to provide any solid proof<\/a> of a link between the assailants and the Pakistani state.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>To understand more about how Pakistan\u2019s powerful military is viewing the incident, and weighing a response, The Conversation U.S. turned to Ayesha Jalal, an <a href=\"https:\/\/fletcher.tufts.edu\/people\/faculty\/ayesha-jalal\">expert on South Asian history and politics<\/a> who is the Mary Ricardson Professor of History at Tufts University.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2>Who will makes the decisions over how Pakistan responds?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>This is clearly a defense issue, so the Pakistani military is going to take the lead. Any decision over how to respond to the Indian airstrikes will have to be done in consultation with the civilian government. But ultimately it will be the powerful Pakistani generals that will be making the decisions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In Pakistan, this is the usual way of doing things. The military has <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/explainer-a-historical-trail-of-pakistans-powerful-military-enterprise-205749\">dominated politics in Pakistan for decades<\/a>. Partly, this is due to the very dynamic we are seeing now. From the creation of Pakistan onward, there has been tension with India, <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/75-years-ago-britains-plan-for-pakistani-and-indian-independence-left-unresolved-conflicts-on-both-sides-especially-when-it-comes-to-kashmir-185932\">including over Kashmir<\/a>. Indeed the two countries went to war over Kashmir <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/05\/05\/world\/asia\/india-pakistan-kashmir-history.html\">within a year of the partition of India<\/a> soon after the creation of Pakistan. So the military has always been seen as central to Pakistan\u2019s view of itself as an independent nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Then in 1958, the Pakistani army toppled the civilian government in the country\u2019s first of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/2453606\/amp\">several military coup attempts<\/a>, three of which have been successful.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Since that time onward, no civilian government has been able to govern successfully for long without the support of the army. Recent political developments in the country \u2013 the <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/imran-khans-arrest-what-it-means-for-the-former-prime-minister-and-pakistans-upcoming-election-205340\">ouster and arrest of former Prime Minister Imran Khan<\/a> and a 2024 election that <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/pakistans-post-election-crisis-how-anti-army-vote-may-deliver-an-unstable-government-that-falls-into-the-militarys-hands-223287\">resulted in a weak coalition government<\/a> \u2013 have only strengthened the hand of Pakistan\u2019s military.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2>What do we know about Pakistan\u2019s army chief Gen. Syed Asim Munir?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite the Pakistani Army\u2019s position of power, Gen. Syed Asim Munir, the Chief of Army Staff, is someone who has tried to keep out of the spotlight. He is known as a very religious character \u2013 he is a Hafiz, meaning he has memorized the Quran. And he is seen as a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/05\/05\/world\/asia\/pakistan-india-asim-munir.html\">tough, fairly inaccessible soldier<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He is also a hawk when it comes to relations with India. Speaking after the Kashmir attack and before India\u2019s airstrikes, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tribuneindia.com\/news\/india\/any-military-misadventure-by-india-will-be-met-with-swift-resolute-response-pak-army-chief\/\">Munir warned<\/a>, \u201cLet there be no ambiguity: Any military misadventure by India will be met with a swift, resolute, and notch-up response.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img src=\"https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/666593\/original\/file-20250507-80-2a01q2.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip\" alt=\"A man in a military uniform is seated.\" \/><figcaption>Chief of Army Staff Syed Asim Munir on July 16, 2023. Iranian Presidency\/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>This approach is somewhat of a departure from that of the man he replaced in 2022, former Army Chief Qamar Javed Bajwa. Bajwa was more inclined to <a href=\"https:\/\/tribune.com.pk\/story\/2417903\/gen-bajwas-india-peace-plan\">look for a peaceful resolution<\/a> with India over Kashmir and other issues.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Munir, by contrast, presents a a more belligerent front in the face of what many in Pakistan see as Indian aggression, while framing the rivalry between the two nations in religious terms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2>What role has he and the Pakistani army played so far in the crisis?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>A lot has been made, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.indiatvnews.com\/news\/world\/munir-jugular-vein-remark-finds-manifestation-in-pahalgam-pakistan-army-on-tenterhooks-resorts-to-old-playbook-2025-04-23-986937\">especially in India<\/a>, of comments that Munir made a few days before the attack in Pahalgam.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Munir described Kashmir as Pakistan\u2019s \u201cjugular vein\u201d and framed the long-running animosity between Pakistan and India in religious terms, invoking the \u201ctwo-nation\u201d theory that states that India is a homeland for Hindus; Pakistan is one for Muslims. The theory, conveyed by <a href=\"https:\/\/economictimes.indiatimes.com\/news\/defence\/pak-army-chief-calls-kashmir-pakistans-jugular-vein-india-slams-two-nation-theory-rhetoric\/articleshow\/120380650.cms?from=mdr\">much of India\u2019s media<\/a>, is that Munir\u2019s was an inflammatory statement that encouraged the Pahalgam attack.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But there is nothing in what he said that was entirely original or new: This has been the narrative of the Pakistani military for several decades. It is simply how they talk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2>Is there evidence that Pakistan\u2019s military played a role in the attack?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>None that India has presented as yet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>India has blamed Pakistan for supporting the Kashmiri militants responsible \u2013 but hasn\u2019t articulated what the actual relationship is between Pakistan and the militant group, <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/what-is-the-resistance-front-an-expert-explains-the-terror-group-that-carried-out-the-latest-kashmir-attack-250663\">The Resistance Front<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Certainly, Pakistan has in the past had ties to some of the many militant groups in Kashmir. For some groups, that has meant crossing over from Indian-controlled Kashmir to Pakistan for training.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-datawrapper wp-block-embed-datawrapper\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" title=\"Where is Kashmir?\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/lhral\/1\/#?secret=0DdErAlJhp\" data-secret=\"0DdErAlJhp\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"500\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>But the argument that \u201cPakistan used to do it, so they must be doing it now\u201d seems unsupported \u2013 certainly, Indian hasn\u2019t presented solid evidence to any international body.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2>What has the reaction of the international community been?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>India is not on as strong of ground as it was in 2019, when a suicide bomber in Pulwama, Indian-administerd Kashmir, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thehindu.com\/topic\/pulwama-attack-2019\/\">killed 40 members<\/a> of the Central Reserve Police Force. On that occasion, the international community swung behind India, with the U.S. offering counterterrorism support while <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ndtv.com\/india-news\/pulwama-terror-attack-us-condemns-kashmir-attack-asks-countries-to-not-shelter-terrorists-1993866\">calling on Pakistan to stop sheltering terrorists<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Without firm evidence of a link between the attack and Pakistan this time around, the international community has found it difficult to go with India\u2019s narrative of the attack. The U.S. has <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aa.com.tr\/en\/americas\/us-closely-monitoring-situation-between-india-and-pakistan-rubio\/3559349\">called on both sides<\/a> to find a \u201cpeaceful resolution.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Meanwhile China has <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2025\/5\/7\/how-world-leaders-are-reacting-to-india-pakistan-military-strikes\">indicated that it is standing by Pakistan<\/a> in a statement in which it expressed \u201cregret over India\u2019s military actions\u201d while also calling on both India and Pakistan to \u201cavoid taking actions that further complicate the situation.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2>What pressures will the Pakistani army be under to respond?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>In Pakistan, the view is this is India attempting to assert its dominance and create what analysts have called a \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/commandeleven.com\/briefing-papers\/indias-new-normal-with-pakistan\/\">new normal<\/a>\u201d in relationships between the two countries \u2013 one in which India will retaliate to any perceived Pakistani-linked terror attack with missile strikes on Pakistan\u2019s territory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The theory here is that India doesn\u2019t mind escalation, in fact it is seen as serving the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cfr.org\/podcasts\/india-modi-and-hindu-nationalism\">Hindu nationalist aims<\/a> of India\u2019s Prime Minister Narendra Modi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But I wouldn\u2019t describe it as public pressure on Pakistan\u2019s military to respond, it is more strategic pressure. Pakistan will need to prevent this \u201cnew normal\u201d happening, and so will, in my view, very likely respond in kind to the Indian airstrikes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2>What can Pakistan do in response?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Well, for starters it has, in theory, the capacity to hit over 200 Indian cities with its arsenal of missiles. But Pakistan Defense Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif has already said that strikes would only <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/asia-pacific\/multiple-loud-explosions-heard-pakistani-kashmir-reuters-witness-2025-05-06\/\">target Indian military targets and not civilians<\/a>. Pakistan also has to weigh how India may respond to any retaliatory strikes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But India has expanded the usual terms of engagement when it comes to Kashmir. Typically in recent years, fighting has been contained along the \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1093\/acrefore\/9780190277727.013.746\">line of control<\/a>\u201d \u2013 the border between Indian- and Pakistani-controled Kashmir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But the Indian airstrike was deep within Pakistan. India says that the targets were all terrorist, but civilians were killed in the process \u2013 and Pakistan\u2019s military will not be able to just leave it at that. A response is very much expected, especially now that India has upped the ante by using Israeli made Harop drones in an attempt to target the Pakistani air defense system. Pakistan claims it has shot down 25 of these drones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2>What are the risks of escalation for Pakistan?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Obviously the most pressing risk is that Pakistan and India are both nuclear states. If Pakistan retaliates in an escalatory way, and then India responds in a similar fashion, this gets to a point where the use of nuclear weapons is a very real risk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>War would also hit Pakistan\u2019s economy at a time when it is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.adb.org\/news\/adb-forecasts-pakistan-economy-grow-2-5-fy2025-reforms-take-effect\">seen to be improving<\/a> after years of crisis. But that will likely be of secondary importance in the decision-making process for Pakistan\u2019s military if it believes that the country\u2019s integrity is being threatened.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In addition, Pakistan\u2019s generals will likely be of the view that India, in attacking Pakistan, is trying to thwart any economic recovery in Pakistan \u2013 with the belief being that India\u2019s government fears a powerful, more economically stable rival.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/ayesha-jalal-1335124\">Ayesha Jalal<\/a>, Professor of History, <em><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/tufts-university-1024\">Tufts University<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This article is republished from <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\">The Conversation<\/a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/missile-strikes-and-drone-attacks-heighten-south-asian-crisis-8-questions-answered-over-the-role-of-pakistans-military-in-responding-256185\">original article<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ayesha Jalal, Tufts University Pakistan\u2019s government has pledged to respond \u201cat a time, place and manner of its choosing\u201d following an air attack from India that killed 31 people in Pakistan on May 6, 2025. The missile strike comes at a time of increased tension between the two South Asian neighbors following a terror attack [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":56,"featured_media":39444,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[46,295,47,296,4],"tags":[16376,16377,8711,16375,16378,885,891,886,860,6701,16379,8257,661],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39443"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/56"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=39443"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39443\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":39445,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39443\/revisions\/39445"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/39444"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=39443"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=39443"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=39443"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}