{"id":41157,"date":"2025-11-27T07:15:00","date_gmt":"2025-11-27T15:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/?p=41157"},"modified":"2025-11-28T23:23:11","modified_gmt":"2025-11-29T07:23:11","slug":"a-year-on-the-israeli-lebanese-ceasefire-looks-increasingly-fragile-%e2%88%92-could-a-return-to-cyclical-violence-come-next","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/a-year-on-the-israeli-lebanese-ceasefire-looks-increasingly-fragile-%e2%88%92-could-a-return-to-cyclical-violence-come-next\/","title":{"rendered":"A year on, the Israeli-Lebanese ceasefire looks increasingly fragile \u2212 could a return to cyclical violence come next?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Asher Kaufman<\/a>, University of Notre Dame<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

An already troubled ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon is looking shakier than ever.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since the truce was announced on Nov. 27, 2024, there have been more than 10,000 Israeli air and ground violations inside Lebanese territory, according to the latest report from UNIFIL<\/a>, the United Nations peacekeeping mission in Lebanon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And in the run-up to the ceasefire\u2019s first anniversary, a spate of Israeli strikes<\/a> over its northern border saw the assassination of Hezbollah\u2019s top military commander and a deadly attack on a Palestinian refugee camp<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Israel argues that all its military attacks<\/a> in Lebanon target Hezbollah\u2019s efforts to rearm and rehabilitate itself. And a flurry of reports from Israel suggest the Israeli military is getting ready to \u201cfinish the job<\/a>\u201d against Hezbollah.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From my perspective as a historian focusing on Israeli-Lebanese relations<\/a>, the ceasefire and Israel\u2019s emergence as the regional military hegemon has not translated into stability and constructive change in the Middle East, not even for Israel. In fact, the shaky agreement is a testament that without diplomacy and a long-term stabilizing accord, military power alone will not suffice.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What\u2019s in a ceasefire<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The ceasefire ostensibly brought an end to the latest war between Israel and Hezbollah. After entering the conflict that followed Hamas\u2019 attack on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, Hezbollah saw its leadership and military capabilities debilitated by Israel, setting off a ripple effect that has helped reshape the Middle East.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Just as an empowered Hezbollah managed for decades to influence Middle East politics<\/a>, its sudden loss of strength had a similar effect in reverse \u2013 contributing to regime change in Syria and Israel\u2019s war on Iran in June.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"A
A retired member of the Lebanese security forces holds a national flag and flashes a victory sign next to burning tires blocking a road leading to the government palace during a protest in Beirut on Sept. 17, 2025. AP Photo\/Bilal Hussein<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The November 2024 ceasefire agreement<\/a> stipulated that, along with the cessation of fighting, Lebanon would remove all nonstate military forces and assets, starting in the south, between the Litani River and the border with Israel. The Lebanese army and other state security branches would remain the sole armed forces in the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In exchange, Israel was meant to gradually withdraw from the areas it occupied in southern Lebanon within 60 days. The agreement also stipulated that the United States would broker indirect negotiations between Israel and Lebanon to achieve an internationally recognized delineation of their land border.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A year later, none of these objectives has been achieved. Israel continues to occupy five border posts<\/a> inside Lebanon and conducts daily raids into the country. In some of these attacks, which Israel says are focused on Hezbollah and allied groups<\/a>, UNIFIL forces<\/a> have been hit or come under fire.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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