{"id":41455,"date":"2026-01-07T07:15:00","date_gmt":"2026-01-07T15:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/?p=41455"},"modified":"2026-01-09T18:58:55","modified_gmt":"2026-01-10T02:58:55","slug":"today-venezuela-tomorrow-iran-can-the-islamic-republic-survive-a-second-trump-presidency","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/today-venezuela-tomorrow-iran-can-the-islamic-republic-survive-a-second-trump-presidency\/","title":{"rendered":"Today Venezuela, tomorrow Iran: can the Islamic Republic survive a second Trump presidency?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Aaron Pilkington<\/a>, University of Denver<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Perhaps no one outside of Venezuela or Cuba<\/a> should care more about the U.S. capture<\/a> of nominal President Nicol\u00e1s Maduro than the Islamic Republic of Iran\u2019s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Khamenei and his regime are in trouble, and it\u2019s not clear how they would survive should the Trump administration decide to support the millions<\/a> who want a new government system without Khamenei and his ilk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iran has no state allies that would be willing to intervene militarily on its behalf. Further, its once-powerful network of partner and proxy militias \u2013 Lebanese Hezbollah, the Houthi rebels in Yemen, and other members of the Axis of Resistance<\/a> \u2013 has been rendered incapable or reluctant to get involved. And Iran\u2019s economy<\/a> is in shambles in the midst of an ongoing water crisis with no relief in sight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Further, the Iranian people have again taken to the streets<\/a> to air their grievances against harsh economic conditions as well as government corruption, mismanagement and hypocrisy, echoing similar conditions to Venezuela in recent years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lastly, President Donald Trump has returned his attention to Iran. On Jan. 2, Trump warned<\/a> Khamenei that if his forces violently suppress<\/a> protesters, Iran would be \u201chit very hard<\/a>\u201d by the U.S.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump\u2019s warning and show of solidarity will likely embolden protesters, which will almost certainly cause Iran\u2019s internal security to crack down harder, as has happened in the past<\/a>. Such U.S. intervention could lead to the overthrowing of the ayatollah, intended or not. Furthermore, Maduro\u2019s fate demonstrates that the Trump administration is willing to use military force for that purpose if deemed necessary.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As an analyst of Middle East affairs focusing on Iran<\/a>, I believe that these conditions place Khamenei\u2019s regime under greater threat today than perhaps any other time in its 46-year history. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growing threats, internal and external<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

If Khamenei hopes to survive politically or mortally, I believe he has three options.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

First, he could capitulate to U.S. demands to halt Iran\u2019s nuclear enrichment program<\/a>. Second, Iran could sprint toward a nuclear bomb<\/a>. Lastly, he could flee<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In hopes of restoring deterrence, Khamenei could also continue rebuilding his country\u2019s military capabilities, which were significantly degraded during the June 2025 12-day war<\/a> in which Israel and the U.S. aimed to destroy Iran\u2019s nuclear capability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Israel is eager to stifle Iran\u2019s reconstitution plans<\/a>, protests are spreading and growing more intense<\/a>, and Trump \u2013 through hostile rhetoric and offensive military action \u2013 has put Khamenei on notice.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Khameini\u2019s problems aren\u2019t his alone. The revolutionary theocratic system of government that he leads is in danger of falling<\/a>. And his military and internal security apparatus may not have the time or ability to address its growing and interrelated internal and external threats simultaneously.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There are two fundamental factors analysts like me consider when assessing enemy threats: offensive capability to inflict damage and hostile intentions to use these capabilities to harm enemies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Determining offensive capability involves evaluating the quality of a country or organization\u2019s complete arsenal \u2013 air, ground, maritime, cyber and space capabilities \u2013 and how trained, disciplined, integrated and lethal their forces might be. Determining intentions involves evaluating if, when and under what conditions offensive capabilities will be used to achieve their goals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If states hope to survive when they come under such pressure, their defense strategy should account for differences between their own military capability and the enemy\u2019s, especially if enemies intend to attack. Or states need to convince enemies to be less hostile, if possible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Maduro\u2019s mistake was his inability to defend against a far superior U.S. military capability while believing that U.S. leaders would not remove him from office. Maduro gambled and lost<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bad choices<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Iran\u2019s supreme leader faces a similar conundrum: First, there is no foreseeable path that allows Tehran to produce or acquire the military capabilities necessary to deter Israel or defeat the United States, unless Iran develops a nuclear weapon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And decades of mutual hostility, the memory of Iran\u2019s once-clandestine nuclear weaponization program<\/a> and recent Iranian lawmaker calls<\/a> to develop nuclear bombs minimizes the prospect that U.S. leaders view Khamenei\u2019s intentions as anything but hostile.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But as the clear weaker party, it is in Tehran\u2019s interest to change Trump\u2019s mind about Tehran\u2019s hostile intent. The way to do that would be by abandoning nuclear enrichment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In terms of threat analysis, the regime\u2019s oft-repeated chants<\/a> of \u201cDeath to America\u201d and \u201cDeath to Israel\u201d perhaps have sent an easily misinterpreted message: that Iran\u2019s hostile leaders intend to destroy the U.S. and Israel. But they simply lack the capability, for now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

President Theodore Roosevelt famously said \u201cspeak softly and carry a big stick; you will go far<\/a>.\u201d Today, he might say that Khamenei is unwise for speaking with such vitriol considering the size of Iran\u2019s stick. The United States and Israel possess military capabilities far superior to Iran\u2019s \u2013 as demonstrated<\/a> by the 12-day war \u2013 but they did not then share the same intent. Though both Israel and the U.S. operations shared the objective<\/a> of neutralizing Iran\u2019s nuclear capability, Israel\u2019s objectives<\/a> were more broad and included targeting senior Iranian leaders and destabilizing the regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To Khamenei\u2019s momentary personal and institutional fortune, Trump immediately called for a ceasefire<\/a> following U.S. B-2 strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, delineating the United States\u2019 narrower objectives that at the time did not include regime change in Iran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But that was before U.S. forces removed Maduro from Caracas and before the outbreak of protests in Iran, both of which coincide with Israel\u2019s signaling preparations for Round 2<\/a> against Iran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"A
Israel is telegraphing its ambitions for another attack on Iran; fighter jets like this taxiing F-16I would likely be part of Israel\u2019s next campaign. Israel Defense Forces (IDF) \/ Handout\/Anadolu via Getty Images)<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Iran without Khamenei?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

During Trump\u2019s Dec. 29 press conference at Mar-a-Lago with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, he warned that the U.S. could \u201cknock the hell<\/a>\u201d out of Iran if the country reconstitutes its nuclear facilities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is separate from the ominuous warning that the U.S. could intervene on behalf of Iranian protesters; it would almost certainly differ in scale.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nevertheless, a potential U.S. intervention could embolden protesters and further undermine and destabilize the Islamic Republic regime. Khamenei has predictably scoffed at and dismissed<\/a> Trump\u2019s warning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I believe this is a serious mistake.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned<\/a> on Jan. 3, 2025, that Khameini should not \u201cplay games\u201d as Maduro did. Khamenei, Rubio said, should take Trump\u2019s warnings seriously. I agree.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If Iran refrains from violent crackdowns on protesters, there is a chance that anti-government protestors overthrow the government. But the supreme leader\u2019s chances of surviving a popular uprising are probably greater than surviving an unbridled U.S. or Israeli military intent on ushering in a new \u2013 post-Islamic Republic \u2013 Iran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Otherwise, Khamenei has to address superior U.S. and Israeli military capability, quickly. But Iran is broke, and even if sanctions<\/a> were not continuously strangling Iran economically, the country could probably never purchase its way to military parity with the U.S.<\/a> or Israel<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alternatively, Iran could determine that it must move quickly to develop a nuclear weapon to mitigate U.S. and Israeli military capabilities and deter future aggression. However, it is extremely unlikely Iran could do this without U.S. and Israeli intelligence discovering the project, which would immediately trigger an overwhelming military campaign that would likely expedite regime change in Iran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And like Maduro, the supreme leader is utterly alone. None of Maduro\u2019s closest partners \u2013 China, Russia, Cuba and even Iran \u2013 were willing to fight in his defense, despite weeks of forewarning and U.S. military buildup<\/a> near Venezuela.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Under these circumstances, it may be impossible for Khamenei to address overwhelming U.S. and Israeli military capabilities. He could, however, reduce the threat by doing what is necessary to ensure the United States\u2019 objectives for Iran remain narrow and focused on the nuclear program, which may also keep Israel at bay.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Khamenei would have to demonstrate unprecedented restraint from cracking down violently on protesters and a willingness to give up nuclear enrichment. Due to historical animosity and distrust toward the U.S., both are unlikely, increasing, I believe, the probability of a forthcoming Iran without Khamenei.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Aaron Pilkington<\/a>, Fellow at the Center for Middle East Studies, University of Denver<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This article is republished from The Conversation<\/a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Aaron Pilkington, University of Denver Perhaps no one outside of Venezuela or Cuba should care more about the U.S. capture of nominal President Nicol\u00e1s Maduro than the Islamic Republic of Iran\u2019s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei. Khamenei and his regime are in trouble, and it\u2019s not clear how they would survive should the Trump administration decide […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":56,"featured_media":41456,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[5,8025,46,295,10,25,47,296,36,4,38],"tags":[7509,479,2122,16614,17341,3666,885,891,886,860,5266,17340],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41455"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/56"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=41455"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41455\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":41482,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41455\/revisions\/41482"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/41456"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=41455"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=41455"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=41455"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}