{"id":8466,"date":"2016-11-30T08:57:50","date_gmt":"2016-11-30T08:57:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/?p=8466"},"modified":"2016-12-07T05:32:10","modified_gmt":"2016-12-07T05:32:10","slug":"trumps-carrier-coup-reveals-credibility-gap-between-twitter-rhetoric-and-economic-reality","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/trumps-carrier-coup-reveals-credibility-gap-between-twitter-rhetoric-and-economic-reality\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump\u2019s Carrier coup reveals credibility gap between Twitter rhetoric and economic reality"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/wesley-widmaier-3632\">Wesley Widmaier<\/a>, <em><a href=\"http:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/griffith-university-828\">Griffith University<\/a><\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<p>In a political coup, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2016\/11\/29\/business\/trump-to-announce-carrier-plant-will-keep-jobs-in-us.html?_r=0\">President-elect Donald Trump says<\/a> that his transition team has struck a deal with Carrier\u2019s Indianapolis plant to keep 1,000 jobs in the state. <\/p>\n<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>Big day on Thursday for Indiana and the great workers of that wonderful state.We will keep our companies and jobs in the U.S. Thanks Carrier<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/realDonaldTrump\/status\/803808454620094465\">November 30, 2016<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>This builds on Trump\u2019s recent tweets directed at the air-conditioner maker and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/news\/wonk\/wp\/2016\/11\/18\/the-real-story-behind-that-exaggerated-tweet-from-donald-trump-about-ford\/\">Ford<\/a>, as he sought to deliver on a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/news\/wonk\/wp\/2016\/11\/29\/donald-trump-has-reached-a-deal-with-a-manufacturer-to-keep-jobs-from-going-to-mexico\/\">campaign promise<\/a> and reverse what his populist predecessor Ross Perot termed a NAFTA-spawned \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=xQ7kn2-GEmM&#038;feature=youtu.be&#038;t=113\">giant sucking sound<\/a>\u201d of jobs leaving the Rust Belt. <\/p>\n<p>To some degree, Carrier\u2019s retreat may reflect its own concern for public opinion. Reports also suggest that Trump wielded sticks and carrots. Carrier depends on the government for approximately <a href=\"http:\/\/www.slate.com\/blogs\/the_slatest\/2016\/11\/29\/trump_and_carrier_agree_to_save_half_of_the_2_000_jobs_set_to_move_from.html\">US$5.6 billion in military sales<\/a> \u2013 a figure that dwarfs the $65 million in savings from moving the Indianapolis plant to Mexico, and executives may have had some fears of retaliation. Trump also could offer inducements \u2013 <a href=\"http:\/\/thehill.com\/business-a-lobbying\/307517-pence-handling-carrier-negotiations-that-trump-bragged-about-on-twitter\">in the form of state tax breaks<\/a> (as Vice President-elect Mike Pence is still the governor of Indiana) and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2016\/11\/29\/business\/trump-to-announce-carrier-plant-will-keep-jobs-in-us.html?hp&#038;action=click&#038;pgtype=Homepage&#038;clickSource=story-heading&#038;module=a-lede-package-region&#038;region=top-news&#038;WT.nav=top-news\">pledges of an easier line<\/a> on potential tax and tariff policies. <\/p>\n<p>Yet, while likely to result in praise, these moves raise a number of questions. How legitimate is presidential \u201cjawboning\u201d of businesses? When are such measures effective in containing market abuses or achieving legitimate broader economic ends \u2013 as opposed to ineffective acts of political theater? When do they represent abuses of political power or authority? And what are the implications for the Trump administration\u2019s broader economic policy? <\/p>\n<p>Trump wouldn\u2019t be the first occupant of the White House to try to bend individual companies to his will. Fortunately, economic history \u2013 and specifically an incident in 1962 I recount in a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/gb\/academic\/subjects\/politics-international-relations\/political-economy\/economic-ideas-political-time-rise-and-fall-economic-orders-progressive-era-global-financial-crisis?format=PB&#038;isbn=9781316604571\">just-released book<\/a> \u2013 offers some insights into these questions and their implications if this is to be Trump\u2019s style going forward.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"align-center \">\n            <img alt=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com\/files\/148176\/width754\/image-20161130-17778-a6oodf.jpg\"><figcaption>\n              <span class=\"caption\">President John F. Kennedy used his bully pulpit in 1962 to charge the steel industry with \u2018ruthless disregard\u2019 for raising prices.<\/span><br \/>\n              <span class=\"attribution\"><span class=\"source\">AP Photo<\/span><\/span><br \/>\n            <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2>JFK squares off against US steel<\/h2>\n<p>Speaking to the issue of legitimacy, one might ask whether Trump\u2019s stance represents a new power grab or a revival of a forgotten tradition.<\/p>\n<p>In fact, there exists a long tradition marked by the use of presidential rhetoric to highlight public or \u201cmacro\u201d interests in ostensibly private or \u201cmicro\u201d corporate choices. Over the past century, such public interests have found expression across Theodore Roosevelt\u2019s appeals for <a href=\"https:\/\/books.google.com.au\/books?id=uT1yDAAAQBAJ&#038;pg=PA25&#038;dq=Theodore+Roosevelt+Economic+Ideas+in+political+time&#038;hl=en&#038;sa=X&#038;ved=0ahUKEwjNzMG9ztHQAhXKppQKHQaXDT8Q6AEIGjAA#v=onepage&#038;q=hepburn%20act&#038;f=false\">rail price controls<\/a>, Franklin D. Roosevelt\u2019s support for <a href=\"http:\/\/millercenter.org\/president\/fdroosevelt\/speeches\/speech-3300\">New Deal-era price codes<\/a> and World War II-era <a href=\"http:\/\/www.presidency.ucsb.edu\/ws\/index.php?pid=16252&#038;st=sacrifice&#038;st1=\">\u201cGeneral Max\u201d<\/a> price guidelines. <\/p>\n<p>This view reached its peak in the 1960s when President John F. Kennedy <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=PzRg--jhO8g\">urged Americans<\/a> to \u201cask not what your country can do for you \u2013 ask what you can do for your country.\u201d This exhortation voiced a then-prevailing sentiment that a common good existed, one that \u201ctrumped\u201d individual choices. <\/p>\n<figure>\n            <iframe loading=\"lazy\" width=\"440\" height=\"260\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/PzRg--jhO8g?wmode=transparent&#038;start=0\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<\/figure>\n<p>To advance such macro interests, presidents accordingly engaged in \u201cjawboning\u201d of labor and business leaders. For example, they often stressed their shared interests in wage-price restraint, and issued threats to both companies and unions, <a href=\"https:\/\/books.google.com.au\/books?id=buihYlwXhuwC&#038;q=spiral#v=snippet&#038;q=spiral&#038;f=false\">lest wages chase prices<\/a> in an inflationary spiral that produced no real gains for anyone.  <\/p>\n<p>Perhaps the most famous such initiative revolved around a <a href=\"https:\/\/books.google.com.au\/books?id=q6G96iX0xW8C&#038;printsec=frontcover&#038;dq=sorensen+kennedy&#038;hl=en&#038;sa=X&#038;ved=0ahUKEwiV3I7J4dDQAhULpZQKHX5rBf0Q6AEIJTAB#v=onepage&#038;q=sorensen%20kennedy&#038;f=false\">1962 struggle between Kennedy and major steel producers<\/a>. Given fears that steel price increases might spark renewed inflation, <a href=\"https:\/\/fraser.stlouisfed.org\/files\/docs\/meltzer\/heller_interviewII_19711221.pdf\">Kennedy put pressure<\/a> on the steel companies, arguing \u2013 as one adviser put it \u2013 that \u201cif you play ball on this, I\u2019ll help get labor into a more receptive mood on a reasonable settlement in 1962.\u201d  <\/p>\n<p>Indeed, Kennedy would deliver, as unions swore off wage increases. When steel negotiations concluded on March 31, 1962, the United Steelworkers union agreed to no wage hike, accepting only a 2.5 percent increase in fringe benefits. <\/p>\n<p>Yet, peace would not last. As I recount in my book \u201cEconomic Ideas in Political Time,\u201d U.S. Steel President Roger Blough <a href=\"https:\/\/books.google.com.au\/books?id=uT1yDAAAQBAJ&#038;pg=PA89&#038;lpg=PA89&#038;dq=After+reading+the+announcement,+Kennedy+accused+Blough+of+having+deceived+him,+while&#038;source=bl&#038;ots=fmBFE8ssAF&#038;sig=_XL3u4bC5yc9fXO8TmmXIM1Vun4&#038;hl=en&#038;sa=X&#038;ved=0ahUKEwjv4sDs4tDQAhVCI5QKHdDCAKsQ6AEIHDAA#v=onepage&#038;q=After%20reading%20the%20announcement%2C%20Kennedy%20accused%20Blough%20of%20having%20deceived%20him%2C%20while&#038;f=false\">visited the White House<\/a> less than two weeks later to inform Kennedy that his company would hike steel prices by 3.5 percent. Kennedy exploded, accusing Blough of deceiving him.  <\/p>\n<p>The administration more broadly responded on a number of fronts, deploying antitrust threats, diverting contracts and most importantly using presidential rhetoric. Kennedy publicly condemned \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.jfklibrary.org\/Research\/Research-Aids\/Ready-Reference\/Press-Conferences\/News-Conference-30.aspx\">a tiny handful of steel executives whose pursuit of private power and profit exceeds their sense of public responsibility<\/a>\u201d and noted that the identical price moves of large steel firms wasn\u2019t \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.jfklibrary.org\/Research\/Research-Aids\/Ready-Reference\/Press-Conferences\/News-Conference-30.aspx\">the way we expect the competitive private enterprise system to always work<\/a>.\u201d <\/p>\n<p>Given national outrage, the steel companies rescinded the increase within days. Kennedy had won.<\/p>\n<h2>So does it work?<\/h2>\n<p>How effective are such measures over time? <\/p>\n<p>One thing worth noting is that such measures must be part of a sustained effort to promote self-reinforcing expectations. If people think they will work, they will work. If people think they will fail, they will fail. The political context matters.<\/p>\n<p>In this light, it should be emphasized that after the steel confrontation, business more broadly moved to oppose Kennedy, suggesting that his measures posed threats to economic efficiency and political liberties. Chamber of Commerce President Richard Wagner <a href=\"https:\/\/books.google.com.au\/books?id=Z_A0nBxjGiQC&#038;pg=PA177&#038;lpg=PA177&#038;dq=dictators+in+other+lands+usually+come+to+power+under+accepted+constitutional+procedures&#038;source=bl&#038;ots=bcQ3WpJ-FR&#038;sig=B8zWoTiXQQvPGmpSIe-2TOyxKQE&#038;hl=en&#038;sa=X&#038;ved=0ahUKEwirnIrZ49DQAhWMq5QKHePhD3AQ6AEIHDAA#v=onepage&#038;q=dictators%20in%20other%20lands%20usually%20come%20to%20power%20under%20accepted%20constitutional%20procedures&#038;f=false\">noted<\/a>, following the confrontation, that \u201cdictators in other lands usually come to power under accepted constitutional procedures.\u201d <\/p>\n<p>While Kennedy was initially able to use his bully pulpit to get businesses to toe the line, steel companies eventually became adept at playing the expectations game. They would often announce excessive price increases and then quickly accept sham \u201ccompromises.\u201d Or they would simply stagger announcements of price hikes or job cuts, revealing them in dribs and drabs or waiting until the holidays when even presidential denunciations might go unheard. <\/p>\n<p>In terms of economic criticisms, free market economist Milton Friedman denounced Kennedy\u2019s \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/books.google.com.au\/books?id=zHSv4OyuY1EC&#038;pg=PA134&#038;lpg=PA134&#038;dq=the+price+of+steel+is+a+public+decision,+as+the+doctrine+of+social+responsibility+declares,+then+it+cannot+be+permitted+to+be+made+privately&#038;source=bl&#038;ots=nJVkFg3h71&#038;sig=Gp_W3sB6mdiioJPN3oF6HIfEGVg&#038;hl=en&#038;sa=X&#038;ved=0ahUKEwi2u6fY29DQAhXMpJQKHfVPAfIQ6AEIHDAA#v=onepage&#038;q=subversive&#038;f=false\">fundamentally subversive doctrine<\/a>,\u201d noting that the steel crisis <a href=\"https:\/\/books.google.com.au\/books?id=zHSv4OyuY1EC&#038;pg=PA134&#038;lpg=PA134&#038;dq=the+price+of+steel+is+a+public+decision,+as+the+doctrine+of+social+responsibility+declares,+then+it+cannot+be+permitted+to+be+made+privately&#038;source=bl&#038;ots=nJVkFg3h71&#038;sig=Gp_W3sB6mdiioJPN3oF6HIfEGVg&#038;hl=en&#038;sa=X&#038;ved=0ahUKEwi2u6fY29DQAhXMpJQKHfVPAfIQ6AEIHDAA#v=onepage&#038;q=the%20price%20of%20steel%20is%20a%20public%20decision%2C%20as%20the%20doctrine%20of%20social%20responsibility%20declares%2C%20then%20it%20cannot%20be%20permitted%20to%20be%20made%20privately&#038;f=false\">had demonstrated<\/a> \u201chow much of the power needed for a police state was already available.\u201d Rather than highlight the notion of a uniquely public interest, Friedman <a href=\"https:\/\/books.google.com.au\/books?id=zHSv4OyuY1EC&#038;pg=PA134&#038;lpg=PA134&#038;dq=the+price+of+steel+is+a+public+decision,+as+the+doctrine+of+social+responsibility+declares,+then+it+cannot+be+permitted+to+be+made+privately&#038;source=bl&#038;ots=nJVkFg3h71&#038;sig=Gp_W3sB6mdiioJPN3oF6HIfEGVg&#038;hl=en&#038;sa=X&#038;ved=0ahUKEwi2u6fY29DQAhXMpJQKHfVPAfIQ6AEIHDAA#v=onepage&#038;q=the%20price%20of%20steel%20is%20a%20public%20decision%2C%20as%20the%20doctrine%20of%20social%20responsibility%20declares%2C%20then%20it%20cannot%20be%20permitted%20to%20be%20made%20privately&#038;f=false\">warned<\/a> that the steel crisis had shown that \u201cif the price of steel is a public decision, as the doctrine of social responsibility declares, then it cannot be permitted to be made privately.\u201d  <\/p>\n<p>In this way, at the height of the Keynesian era, one can see the reaction against appeals to limit private abuses of the public good that foreshadowed today\u2019s neoliberalism, which sees private choices as largely equating with the public good. Friedman\u2019s counterargument marked the acceleration of a shift to a belief that \u2013 as <a href=\"http:\/\/www.thecommentator.com\/article\/3276\/no_such_thing_as_society\">Margaret Thatcher put it<\/a> \u2013 \u201cthere is no such thing as society,\u201d but only \u201cindividual men and women.\u201d Expressing a classically liberal suspicion of public power, Ronald Reagan put it best in 1981 when he said that \u201c<a href=\"http:\/\/www.presidency.ucsb.edu\/ws\/?pid=43130\">government is not the solution to our problem; government is the problem<\/a>.\u201d  <\/p>\n<h2>What it means for Trump<\/h2>\n<p>These historical parallels therefore offer grounds for a skeptical view of the efficacy of Trump\u2019s exhortation \u2013 and highlight the possible difficulties a Trump administration might find as it pursues Carrier-styled interventions.<\/p>\n<p>First, Trump\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.donaldjtrump.com\/policies\/regulations\">ideology<\/a> \u2013 if not the wider culture \u2013 is marked less by a Keynesian-Kennedy commitment to regulation in the \u201cmacro\u201d interest than to a Friedman-Reagan styled aversion to regulations that distort \u201cprivate\u201d choices. This increases the difficulty for Trump of enabling any self-reinforcing shift in business attitudes away from cost-cutting and in support of higher wages \u2013 even if this were his goal. And it\u2019s more likely to encourage other companies to threaten to move employees in order to get more benefits \u2013 even if they have no intention of leaving. <\/p>\n<p>Moreover, even if Trump\u2019s sentiments had not been in accord with a neoliberal stress on liberating private choices, he would face opposition from a Republican Congress in any effort at reshaping business attitudes. <a href=\"http:\/\/abetterway.speaker.gov\/_assets\/pdf\/ABetterWay-Economy-PolicyPaper.pdf\">House Speaker Paul Ryan has himself stressed<\/a> the need to deregulate industry further.  <\/p>\n<p>Theoretically, Trump\u2019s rhetoric might be married to a policy agenda like that of Bernie Sanders \u2013 who has proposed an \u201c<a href=\"http:\/\/thehill.com\/policy\/finance\/economy\/307579-sanders-pressures-trump-with-anti-outsourcing-legislation\">Outsourcing Prevention Act<\/a>\u201d to limit access to federal contracts, tax benefits, and grants or loans to companies found to have been engaged in outsourcing. <\/p>\n<p>Given these tensions, Trump\u2019s act in saving the Carrier jobs might foreshadow a revived Keynesian stress on raising wages &#8211; or be revealed as a rhetorical diversion that obscures a reinforced neoliberal stress on profits. <\/p>\n<p>If Trump is serious about working class concerns, he must offer appeals that go beyond tweets and promote regulatory initiatives resistant to corporate \u201cgaming.\u201d Put differently, as impressive as this early rhetorical success may be, observers should wait to see how it accords with Trump\u2019s policy \u201creality.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/counter.theconversation.edu.au\/content\/69573\/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic\" alt=\"The Conversation\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/wesley-widmaier-3632\">Wesley Widmaier<\/a>, Australian Research Council Future Fellow, <em><a href=\"http:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/griffith-university-828\">Griffith University<\/a><\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<p>This article was originally published on <a href=\"http:\/\/theconversation.com\">The Conversation<\/a>. Read the <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/trumps-carrier-coup-reveals-credibility-gap-between-twitter-rhetoric-and-economic-reality-69573\">original article<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Wesley Widmaier, Griffith University In a political coup, President-elect Donald Trump says that his transition team has struck a deal with Carrier\u2019s Indianapolis plant to keep 1,000 jobs in the state. Big day on Thursday for Indiana and the great workers of that wonderful state.We will keep our companies and jobs in the U.S. Thanks [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":43,"featured_media":8467,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[4],"tags":[482,479,1272,711,1663,1628,1658,1602],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8466"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/43"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8466"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8466\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8468,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8466\/revisions\/8468"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/8467"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8466"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8466"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lifeandnews.com\/articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8466"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}